Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass</li>
<li>We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass
We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.


Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The reference period for the trading data used for the index selection ends on 31st October 2022.</li>
<li>At present, I see one change for SENSEX, three changes for BSE 100, and six changes for BSE 200. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.
The reference period for the trading data used for the index selection ends on 31st October 2022.
At present, I see one change for SENSEX, three changes for BSE 100, and six changes for BSE 200. 


S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Adani Names with F&O Question Marks Still in the Race

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LICI IN)</a> will be added to BSE 200 and BSE 500 at the end of this week. Below are more details on this.</li>
<li>In addition, I have discussed some trading opportunities with interesting potential index flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.

Life Insurance Corp of India (LICI IN) will be added to BSE 200 and BSE 500 at the end of this week. Below are more details on this.
In addition, I have discussed some trading opportunities with interesting potential index flow dynamics.


S&P BSE Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 2022: LIC, Shriram Finance, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's, & More

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Bhel's Q4FY21 revenues came in at Rs 7171 crore, up 42% YoY, 61.1% QoQ amid a low base with some execution revival amid headwinds. On the segmental front, power segment revenues grew 50.9% YoY to Rs 4789.3 crore whereas industrial segment revenue grew 38.4% YoY to Rs 1963.4 crore. EBITDA level loss came in at Rs 1264.3 crore (vs. EBITDA loss of Rs 561.7 crore in Q4FY20) YoY owing to lower-than-expected execution and higherthan-expected operating expenses and provisions. Net loss came in at Rs 1032.9 crore (vs.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Bhel's Q4FY21 revenues came in at Rs 7171 crore, up 42% YoY, 61.1% QoQ amid a low base with some execution revival amid headwinds. On the segmental front, power segment revenues grew 50.9% YoY to Rs 4789.3 crore whereas industrial segment revenue grew 38.4% YoY to Rs 1963.4 crore. EBITDA level loss came in at Rs 1264.3 crore (vs. EBITDA loss of Rs 561.7 crore in Q4FY20) YoY owing to lower-than-expected execution and higherthan-expected operating expenses and provisions. Net loss came in at Rs 1032.9 crore (vs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

PowerGrid Infrastructure Inves / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) raised around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. </p></div><div>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/powergrid-invit-pre-ipo-always-going-to-be-tricky-with-a-declining-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/powergrid-invit-ipo-assets-are-fine-declining-yield-is-not" target="_blank" rel="noopener">POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not.</a>
</div><div></div><div><p>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</p></div>

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) raised around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes: POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield and POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

POWERGRID InvIT IPO Trading - Not a Bad Subscription Result

India

Suzlon Energy Ltd. designs, manufactures, operates, and maintains wind generating equipment.  The Company constructs large wind parks.

CG Power and Industrial Solutions Limited manufactures, distributes, installs and services electrical and allied equipment. The Company offers transformers, reactors, switchgear control equipment and accessories, industrial motors, pumps, and communication systems. CG Power and Industrial Solutions serves customers globally. 

Havells India Limited manufactures electrical products. The Company's products include building circuit protection equipment, industrial switchgears, energy meters, cables & wires, modular switches, fans and lighting products.

Alstom T&D India Limited manufactures a range of power transmission and distribution equipment. The Company builds high- and medium-voltage substations and develop technologies to manage power grids worldwide.

KEI Industries Limited manufactures cables and stainless steel wires for the building and construction, defense, telecommunications, and other industries.

ABB India Limited undertakes engineering and construction projects and manufactures heavy engineering and industrial equipment. The Company undertakes projects in the field of energy production, power transmission, transportation, process automation and pollution control. ABB India's products include pollution control equipment, switch gears and high current rectifiers.

Amara Raja Batteries Limited specializes in the manufacture of industrial and automotive batteries. The Company manufactures industrial batteries primarily for the telecom and UPS sectors. Amara Raja manufactures automotive batteries for the original equipment manufacturers and the aftermarket.

Finolex Cables Ltd. manufactures a wide range of telecommunication and electrical cables. The Company's products include flexible cables for appliances and industrial use electrification, winding wires, automobile cables, welding cables, and cables for submersible pumps. The Company also manufactures jelly filled phone cables, high frequency/radio frequency cables and PVC Sheets.

V-Guard Industries Limited produces and manufacturers stabilizers, pumps, cables, fans, and electrical and solar water heaters.

HBL Power Systems Ltd. manufactures power systems consisting of batteries and related power electronic products.  The Company makes nickel cadmium pocket plate batteries and thyristor control power convertors.  HBL's products are used in defense, railways, petrochemical, steel, power generation and telecommunication industries.

Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited manufactures power generation equipment. The Company produces and sells thermal generator set, nuclear power units, wind power equipment, power transmission and distribution equipment, and other products. Shanghai Electric Group also manufactures environmental protection equipment.

Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)

Acuity Brands, Inc. designs, produces, and distributes a full range of indoor and outdoor lighting and control systems for commercial and institutional, industrial, infrastructure, and residential applications. The Company manufactures or procures lighting products primarily in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Enphase Energy Inc. manufactures solar power solutions. The Company offers solutions to increase productivity and reliability of solar modules.

Regal Rexnord Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells electric motors and controls. The Company offers gearboxes, automotive transmissions, rotary cutting tools, automatic transfer switches, and electric generators. Regal Beloit markets its products to distributors, original equipment manufacturers, and end users worldwide.

Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited manufactures and sells hydro and steam power generators and AC/DC electric motors. The Company also provides repair, upgrade, maintenance, and other services for the products.

Dongfang Electric Corporation (600875 CH)

FUJI ELECTRIC CO.,LTD manufactures electric machinery and electronic devices. The Company's products include automatic vending machines, factory automation equipment, and power supplies, as well as information and electronic components such as power semiconductors and integrated circuits (ICs).

EVE Energy Co., Ltd researches, manufactures and sells lithium battery.  The Company also provides portable power source solutions.

Generac Holdings, Inc. manufactures automatic, stationary standby and portable generators.  The Company's generators serve the residential, commercial, industrial and telecommunications markets.

Fortune Electric Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets power transformers, distribution transformers, switchgears, capacitors, and distribution apparatus.

TBEA Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electrical transformers, wires and cables, and other accessory equipment. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and manages real estate.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited manufactures power plant equipment. The Company's products include gas turbines, generators, thermal sets, diesel shunters, turbo sets, hydro sets, power transformers, switch gears, circuit breakers and boilers. The Company also manufactures compressors, valves, rectifiers, pumps, capacitors, oil rigs, as well as castings and forgings.

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Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL IN)

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as $DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Year Yields Decline. Italy FTSE MIB with a bullish YTD downtrend reversal, Switzerland...

Vermilion Research

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Adani Names with F&O Question Marks Still in the Race

Tata Motors could be a SENSEX ADD while Dr Reddy's could be a SENSEX DEL. There are multiple ADANI names with no derivative market linkage with...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P BSE Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 2022: LIC, Shriram Finance, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's, & More

Details on LIC's S&P BSE Inclusion Event and more discussions on potential index changes in the S&P BSE Index family in the run up to the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bhel: Execution Rebound Amid Headwinds

Bhel's Q4FY21 revenues came in at Rs 7171 crore, up 42% YoY, 61.1% QoQ amid a low base with some execution revival amid headwinds.

ICICI Securities Limited

POWERGRID InvIT IPO Trading - Not a Bad Subscription Result

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) raised around US$1bn in its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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