Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After two rejections, Mesoblast has finally received FDA approval for its first drug. Celltrion has received FDA approval for its Stelara biosimilar, which will be launched in February 2025.</li>
<li>Peptidream has become eligible for a milestone payment. Sumitomo Pharma is strengthening R&amp;D for regenerative medicine and cell therapy business. Astellas Pharma in-licenses technology for developing neurology drugs.</li>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive global license to Merck for its pre-clinical drug candidate. Lupin received FDA approval to market generic version of blockbuster Descovy tablets.</li>
</ul>


After two rejections, Mesoblast has finally received FDA approval for its first drug. Celltrion has received FDA approval for its Stelara biosimilar, which will be launched in February 2025.
Peptidream has become eligible for a milestone payment. Sumitomo Pharma is strengthening R&amp;D for regenerative medicine and cell therapy business. Astellas Pharma in-licenses technology for developing neurology drugs.
Hansoh Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive global license to Merck for its pre-clinical drug candidate. Lupin received FDA approval to market generic version of blockbuster Descovy tablets.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 22)- Mesoblast, Celltrion, Peptidream, Astellas, Hansoh, Lupin

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>TY-9591 has differentiated indication compared with the current listed third-generation EGFR-TKI, but it still depends on the final clinical results, which also bring more uncertainty to the commercialization performance.</li>
<li>TYK’s development strategy requires it to invest heavily on head-to-head trials.Due to cash shortage, until TYK successfully addresses survival pressure,we recommend a more cautious assessment of pipeline prospects/future R&amp;D arrangements.</li>
<li>TYK is a “mediocre” company. The valuation (RMB3.08 billion) is based on optimistic expectations that core product will be successfully developed, become Me-Better, and commercialized smoothly.We’re, however, conservative about this.</li>
</ul>


TY-9591 has differentiated indication compared with the current listed third-generation EGFR-TKI, but it still depends on the final clinical results, which also bring more uncertainty to the commercialization performance.
TYK’s development strategy requires it to invest heavily on head-to-head trials.Due to cash shortage, until TYK successfully addresses survival pressure,we recommend a more cautious assessment of pipeline prospects/future R&amp;D arrangements.
TYK is a “mediocre” company. The valuation (RMB3.08 billion) is based on optimistic expectations that core product will be successfully developed, become Me-Better, and commercialized smoothly.We’re, however, conservative about this.


Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Among core/key products, TY-302 and TY-2136b have to face fierce competition, with R&amp;D progress lagging behind competing products.TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC could be a breakthrough point for TYK.</li>
<li>There would be a long time for the first product to generate revenue, but TYK is cash shortage.So, the survival risk is high. Such companies are less attractive to investors.</li>
<li>Valuation of TYK after six rounds of financing was RMB3.08 billion. However, considering the weak sentiment and concerns on pipeline, valuation of TYK after IPO could fall below this level.</li>
</ul>


Among core/key products, TY-302 and TY-2136b have to face fierce competition, with R&amp;D progress lagging behind competing products.TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC could be a breakthrough point for TYK.
There would be a long time for the first product to generate revenue, but TYK is cash shortage.So, the survival risk is high. Such companies are less attractive to investors.
Valuation of TYK after six rounds of financing was RMB3.08 billion. However, considering the weak sentiment and concerns on pipeline, valuation of TYK after IPO could fall below this level.


Pre-IPO TYK Medicines - Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

<ul>
<li>Many investors may not understand China's NRDL negotiation system and the new adjustments in July. So, we think it’s necessary to clarify the rules/key points of NRDL negotiation procedures.</li>
<li>NHSA provides clear calculation rules for price reduction, greatly increasing the predictability of price changes during renewal process in NRDL negotiation. However, the benefits brought by new adjustments are limited.</li>
<li>The main direct beneficiaries are those "old drugs" since their price reduction can be controlled in renewal process. For enterprises, the biggest obstacle is the first NRDL negotiation with NHSA.</li>
</ul>


Many investors may not understand China's NRDL negotiation system and the new adjustments in July. So, we think it’s necessary to clarify the rules/key points of NRDL negotiation procedures.
NHSA provides clear calculation rules for price reduction, greatly increasing the predictability of price changes during renewal process in NRDL negotiation. However, the benefits brought by new adjustments are limited.
The main direct beneficiaries are those "old drugs" since their price reduction can be controlled in renewal process. For enterprises, the biggest obstacle is the first NRDL negotiation with NHSA.


Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

China

Betta Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company researches, manufactures, and sells drugs for the treatment of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and other related diseases. Betta Pharmaceuticals markets throughout China.

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Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558 CH)

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 22)- Mesoblast, Celltrion, Peptidream, Astellas, Hansoh, Lupin

Mesoblast got FDA approval for its first drug, while Betta Pharma, Celltrion, and Lupin also received some major FDA approvals. Pharma companies...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

TYK has differentiated indication for core product, but it faces uncertainty in R&D. Cash shortage is an issue. We recommend a more cautious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines - Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

Except TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC, the rest pipeline has little highlight but with fierce competition.As a biotech with no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

It's necessary to explain the NRDL negotiation system and new adjustments, which increase the predictability of drug price decline.Investors are...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 22)- Mesoblast, Celltrion, Peptidream, Astellas, Hansoh, Lupin

Mesoblast got FDA approval for its first drug, while Betta Pharma, Celltrion, and Lupin also received some major FDA approvals. Pharma companies...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​TYK has differentiated indication for core product, but it faces uncertainty in R&D. Cash shortage is an issue. We recommend a more cautious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines - Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

Except TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC, the rest pipeline has little highlight but with fierce competition.As a biotech with no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

It's necessary to explain the NRDL negotiation system and new adjustments, which increase the predictability of drug price decline.Investors are...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

TYK has differentiated indication for core product, but it faces uncertainty in R&D. Cash shortage is an issue. We recommend a more cautious...