Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.</li>
<li>ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.</li>
<li>A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.</li>
<li>Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.</li>
<li>BUY…</li>
</ul>


Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.
ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.
A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.
Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.
BUY…


Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Event-Driven

UOB Kay Hian Securities Thai / Event-Driven

Compared to the peak in 2013, deal flow has been slow in Thailand this year. Apart from the blockbuster takeover of Big C by Berli Jucker (BJC), there were few landmark deals this year. For the remainder of the year, we see continued tepid deal flow. On a 12-month view, we identified several potential targets in brokerage industry (Globex, Trinity, and Asia Plus' retail arm) and the possible divestment of Thanachart by Nova Scotia.The three most acquisitive companies in Thailand, CPF, BJC, and TU, will remain on the prowl, but it is virtually impossible for us to guess who the targets are, since they will look at hundreds of potential deals. All we can do is identify some possibilities, though most likely, these deals will come as a surprise when they actually materialize.

Compared to the peak in 2013, deal flow has been slow in Thailand this year. Apart from the blockbuster takeover of Big C by Berli Jucker (BJC), there were few landmark deals this year. For the remainder of the year, we see continued tepid deal flow. On a 12-month view, we identified several potential targets in brokerage industry (Globex, Trinity, and Asia Plus' retail arm) and the possible divestment of Thanachart by Nova Scotia.The three most acquisitive companies in Thailand, CPF, BJC, and TU, will remain on the prowl, but it is virtually impossible for us to guess who the targets are, since they will look at hundreds of potential deals. All we can do is identify some possibilities, though most likely, these deals will come as a surprise when they actually materialize.

Equity Bottom-Up

Cheap oil boosts consumption in the energy-intensive Thai economy more than most countries due to: 1) transport inefficiencies; 2) large number of cars and consequent burden; and 3) low relative income levels. With this in mind, the currently low oil price is highly positive for the economy. We examine retailers and consumer product companies.All of them trade above 20x PE except for TIPCO (one of our 5 top picks). The Big C acquisition by Berli Jucker looms large on the retail scene and is bound to have a much bigger impact than the CP All acquisition of Makro despite its smaller size. Within the retailer space, we think Big C is an easy win. For consumer products, we think Thai Beverage, a Singapore-listed company that is the linchpin in the empire of Thailand's richest man, also looks like an interesting beneficiary of the hypermarket deal even if it wasn't directly involved.

Cheap oil boosts consumption in the energy-intensive Thai economy more than most countries due to: 1) transport inefficiencies; 2) large number of cars and consequent burden; and 3) low relative income levels. With this in mind, the currently low oil price is highly positive for the economy. We examine retailers and consumer product companies.All of them trade above 20x PE except for TIPCO (one of our 5 top picks). The Big C acquisition by Berli Jucker looms large on the retail scene and is bound to have a much bigger impact than the CP All acquisition of Makro despite its smaller size. Within the retailer space, we think Big C is an easy win. For consumer products, we think Thai Beverage, a Singapore-listed company that is the linchpin in the empire of Thailand's richest man, also looks like an interesting beneficiary of the hypermarket deal even if it wasn't directly involved.

The New Abnormal (Part II): Boosting Consumption & Hypermarket Wars

Thailand

Berli Jucker PCL is a large Thai conglomerate whose business spans various industries. The Company's operations include the distribution and manufacturing of its own products plus contract distribution and manufacturing for other firms. BJC's core lines of business are packaging, consumer, healthcare, technical and other businesses.

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Berli Jucker (BJC TB)

Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos. ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with...

David Riedel

Takeover Kingpins of Thailand

Compared to the peak in 2013, deal flow has been slow in Thailand this year. Apart from the blockbuster takeover of Big C by Berli Jucker (BJC),...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The New Abnormal (Part II): Boosting Consumption & Hypermarket Wars

Cheap oil boosts consumption in the energy-intensive Thai economy more than most countries due to: 1) transport inefficiencies; 2) large number of...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)