Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Event-Driven

In this review, we explore existing major deals of 2016 and potential deals in the future as well as highlight the nation-shocking scandal around Nation, one of Thailand's largest English daily. Amongst the major deals of Thailand in 2016, the largest by far was BJC's 3bn euro acquisition of Big C, the second largest hypermarket, while we personally made the most of was the unconfirmed JTS deal.Going forward, we see: 1) the Triple T Banks (TISCO, TCAP, TMB) potentially being involved in some form of international divestment by foreign partners (Deutsche, Nova Scotia, ING); 2) the possibility of CP Group trying to buy Tesco's Thai operations, which were actually founded by CP pre-crisis; and 3) a 50-50 chance on the KKP deal with Temasek. If you are someone who believes in making money from M&amp;A, the mosaic principle, and Thai markets, this is the review for you. And to all investment bankers who have their cups in the Thai punch bowl, all I'm gonna say is....Congrats!

In this review, we explore existing major deals of 2016 and potential deals in the future as well as highlight the nation-shocking scandal around Nation, one of Thailand's largest English daily. Amongst the major deals of Thailand in 2016, the largest by far was BJC's 3bn euro acquisition of Big C, the second largest hypermarket, while we personally made the most of was the unconfirmed JTS deal.Going forward, we see: 1) the Triple T Banks (TISCO, TCAP, TMB) potentially being involved in some form of international divestment by foreign partners (Deutsche, Nova Scotia, ING); 2) the possibility of CP Group trying to buy Tesco's Thai operations, which were actually founded by CP pre-crisis; and 3) a 50-50 chance on the KKP deal with Temasek. If you are someone who believes in making money from M&amp;A, the mosaic principle, and Thai markets, this is the review for you. And to all investment bankers who have their cups in the Thai punch bowl, all I'm gonna say is....Congrats!

November & Beyond (Part 2): Party Time for the Deal Makers

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

Equity Bottom-Up

Today, Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi presides over an empire with almost complete domination of Thai liquor business and is a strong number 2 in beer, hypermarkets, potato chips, and tissue. On top of that, he has huge properties in Singapore and Thailand. Not bad for a fourth-grader who used to collect bottle caps! Within the Group, we like Thai Beverage and Berli Jucker, his two flagships in Thailand. In this review, we also discuss the recent rumors around his future M&amp;A (Ticon) and a interesting deal unrelated to his group (KKP) that surfaced around the same time and what you should do about it. His TCC Group is incredibly diversified. His story is legend. Enjoy!

Today, Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi presides over an empire with almost complete domination of Thai liquor business and is a strong number 2 in beer, hypermarkets, potato chips, and tissue. On top of that, he has huge properties in Singapore and Thailand. Not bad for a fourth-grader who used to collect bottle caps! Within the Group, we like Thai Beverage and Berli Jucker, his two flagships in Thailand. In this review, we also discuss the recent rumors around his future M&amp;A (Ticon) and a interesting deal unrelated to his group (KKP) that surfaced around the same time and what you should do about it. His TCC Group is incredibly diversified. His story is legend. Enjoy!

Thai-Coons (Episode 2): Bottle Cap Boy Turned Beer Baron

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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<ul>
<li>Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.</li>
<li>ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.</li>
<li>A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.</li>
<li>Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.</li>
<li>BUY…</li>
</ul>


Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.
ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.
A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.
Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.
BUY…


Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

UOB Kay Hian Securities Thai / Event-Driven

Compared to the peak in 2013, deal flow has been slow in Thailand this year. Apart from the blockbuster takeover of Big C by Berli Jucker (BJC), there were few landmark deals this year. For the remainder of the year, we see continued tepid deal flow. On a 12-month view, we identified several potential targets in brokerage industry (Globex, Trinity, and Asia Plus' retail arm) and the possible divestment of Thanachart by Nova Scotia.The three most acquisitive companies in Thailand, CPF, BJC, and TU, will remain on the prowl, but it is virtually impossible for us to guess who the targets are, since they will look at hundreds of potential deals. All we can do is identify some possibilities, though most likely, these deals will come as a surprise when they actually materialize.

Compared to the peak in 2013, deal flow has been slow in Thailand this year. Apart from the blockbuster takeover of Big C by Berli Jucker (BJC), there were few landmark deals this year. For the remainder of the year, we see continued tepid deal flow. On a 12-month view, we identified several potential targets in brokerage industry (Globex, Trinity, and Asia Plus' retail arm) and the possible divestment of Thanachart by Nova Scotia.The three most acquisitive companies in Thailand, CPF, BJC, and TU, will remain on the prowl, but it is virtually impossible for us to guess who the targets are, since they will look at hundreds of potential deals. All we can do is identify some possibilities, though most likely, these deals will come as a surprise when they actually materialize.

Thailand

Berli Jucker PCL is a large Thai conglomerate whose business spans various industries. The Company's operations include the distribution and manufacturing of its own products plus contract distribution and manufacturing for other firms. BJC's core lines of business are packaging, consumer, healthcare, technical and other businesses.

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Berli Jucker (BJC TB)

November & Beyond (Part 2): Party Time for the Deal Makers

In this review, we explore existing major deals of 2016 and potential deals in the future as well as highlight the nation-shocking scandal around...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Thai-Coons (Episode 2): Bottle Cap Boy Turned Beer Baron

Today, Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi presides over an empire with almost complete domination of Thai liquor business and is a strong number 2 in beer,...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos. ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with...

David Riedel

Takeover Kingpins of Thailand

Compared to the peak in 2013, deal flow has been slow in Thailand this year. Apart from the blockbuster takeover of Big C by Berli Jucker (BJC),...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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