Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.</li>
<li>Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)</li>
<li>TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.
Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)
TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

<ul>
<li>TSMC - Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company.</li>
<li>UMC - ADR now trading at a discount. Pretty clear opportunity for a reversion back to a premium.</li>
<li>ChipMOS - At parity, results coming February 23rd. We maintain a model on the company.</li>
</ul>


TSMC - Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company.
UMC - ADR now trading at a discount. Pretty clear opportunity for a reversion back to a premium.
ChipMOS - At parity, results coming February 23rd. We maintain a model on the company.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Holding Despite Buffett Exit, UMC Discount Opens Up

Research on International Stock Ideas, Value Punks

Value Punks

Research on International Stock Ideas

Value Punks’ mission is to deliver institutional-grade research on international stock ideas in a digestible, reader-friendly format.

At Value Punks, we blend our background in traditional value-investing with an openness to embrace a constantly and rapidly evolving investment and business landscape.

Institutional-Grade Research

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B / Equity Bottom-Up

This is Part 1 of our exclusive deep dive on “Sogo Shosha”, or Japanese trading companies.We’ve decided to break this deep dive into two parts given its length.Part 1 will build the foundation and covers the business, history, and a discussion of Berkshire’s investment.

This is Part 1 of our exclusive deep dive on “Sogo Shosha”, or Japanese trading companies.We’ve decided to break this deep dive into two parts given its length.Part 1 will build the foundation and covers the business, history, and a discussion of Berkshire’s investment.

Deep Dive: Japanese Trading Companies (Part 1)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

<ul>
<li>Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.</li>
<li>After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.</li>
<li>We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.</li>
</ul>


Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.
After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.
We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.


Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

United States

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries in a variety of business sectors.  The Company's principal operations are insurance business conducted nationwide on a primary basis and worldwide on a reinsurance basis. Berkshire's other operations include a railway company, a specialty chemical company, and an international association of diversified businesses.

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Holding Despite Buffett Exit, UMC Discount Opens Up

TSMC - Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company. UMC ADR discount represents a decent...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Deep Dive: Japanese Trading Companies (Part 1)

This is Part 1 of our exclusive deep dive on “Sogo Shosha”, or Japanese trading companies. We’ve decided to break this deep dive into two parts...

Value Punks

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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