Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.</li>
<li>The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.</li>
<li>Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.


[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.</li>
<li>The largest one-way turnover is expected in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/materials-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27541:1" rel="noopener">Materials Select Sector SPDR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>.</li>
<li>The inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> will add to the buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.
The largest one-way turnover is expected in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, Technology Select Sector SPDR, Materials Select Sector SPDR and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund.
The inflows to Apple (AAPL US), Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) and Dell Technologies (DELL US) will add to the buying from the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) trackers.


Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 8 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 15 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> were finally added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and there is huge size to trade in the stocks.</li>
<li>There will also be big buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> following a float increase driven by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1044:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US)</a> selling last quarter.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 8 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 15 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the September rebalance.

Dell Technologies (DELL US) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) were finally added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and there is huge size to trade in the stocks.
There will also be big buying in Apple (AAPL US) following a float increase driven by Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US) selling last quarter.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Dell, Palantir Make It (Finally!); Apple Upweight

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Vanguard’s 95.3% reduction in TSMC holdings underscores concerns over geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks impacting the semiconductor sector’s stability and future growth. </li>
<li>Citadel’s 876% increase in Thermo Fisher shares reflects strong confidence in the healthcare sector, particularly in companies poised to benefit from technological advancements and market expansion. </li>
<li>Berkshire Hathaway’s 49.3% cut in Apple holdings suggests a strategic move to lock in profits after significant gains, while reallocating capital to less volatile investments.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard’s 95.3% reduction in TSMC holdings underscores concerns over geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks impacting the semiconductor sector’s stability and future growth. 
Citadel’s 876% increase in Thermo Fisher shares reflects strong confidence in the healthcare sector, particularly in companies poised to benefit from technological advancements and market expansion. 
Berkshire Hathaway’s 49.3% cut in Apple holdings suggests a strategic move to lock in profits after significant gains, while reallocating capital to less volatile investments.


Institutions Adjust Portfolios Amid Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility (13F Filings 30/Jun)

United States

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries in a variety of business sectors.  The Company's principal operations are insurance business conducted nationwide on a primary basis and worldwide on a reinsurance basis. Berkshire's other operations include a railway company, a specialty chemical company, and an international association of diversified businesses.

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Constituent changes to the SPX and the market consultation proposals being adopted result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn. Apple and...

Brian Freitas

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Dell, Palantir Make It (Finally!); Apple Upweight

There are 3 changes for the SnP500, 8 for the SnP400 and 15 for the SnP600 Index. Dell and Palantir have finally been added. There is huge size to...

Brian Freitas

Institutions Adjust Portfolios Amid Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility (13F Filings 30/Jun)

Investors are moving away from overvalued tech stocks towards undervalued sectors like infrastructure and healthcare due to increasing economic...

Mint Finance

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