US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Harry Kalfas

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ares-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28771:1" rel="noopener">Ares Management (ARES US) </a>entered into a definitive agreement a $3.7 billion acquisition of GLP Capital Partners’ international operations.</li>
<li>The acquisition is structured with a mix of cash and stock, including performance incentives.</li>
<li>The deal, subject to regulatory approvals, will impact Ares’ presence in a global and a major US index, potentially creating significant passive demand.</li>
</ul>



Ares Management (ARES US) entered into a definitive agreement a $3.7 billion acquisition of GLP Capital Partners’ international operations.
The acquisition is structured with a mix of cash and stock, including performance incentives.
The deal, subject to regulatory approvals, will impact Ares’ presence in a global and a major US index, potentially creating significant passive demand.


Ares Management’s $3.7 Billion Acquisition: Shift for the U.S. And Global Index

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental's revenue is projected to grow 4.8% QoQ but dip 0.1% YoY, while EPS may drop 27.2% QoQ and 36.4% YoY due to lower realised prices.</li>
<li>Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price is expected at USD 75.3/b, down 6.7% YoY and 5.7% QoQ, largely due to an 8.1% YoY and 6.2% QoQ decline in US prices.</li>
<li>Occidental has committed to reducing at least USD 4.5 billion in debt within 12 months of acquiring CrownRock, having already cut nearly USD 3.8 billion, nearing 85% of its target.</li>
</ul>


Occidental's revenue is projected to grow 4.8% QoQ but dip 0.1% YoY, while EPS may drop 27.2% QoQ and 36.4% YoY due to lower realised prices.
Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price is expected at USD 75.3/b, down 6.7% YoY and 5.7% QoQ, largely due to an 8.1% YoY and 6.2% QoQ decline in US prices.
Occidental has committed to reducing at least USD 4.5 billion in debt within 12 months of acquiring CrownRock, having already cut nearly USD 3.8 billion, nearing 85% of its target.


[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>Free float is forecasted to increase from ~94% to 100% in S&amp;P 500 and other US and Global indices after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1044:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire</a> halved its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> .</li>
<li>Forecasted demand from S&amp;P 500 and S&amp;P TMI is 164.2m shares, $37.1bn and 3.0 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024.</li>
<li>Materialization of the free float increase is uncertain due to debatable strategic shareholder classification. ETF ratios and current free float improve the confidence of the forecast. </li>
</ul>


Free float is forecasted to increase from ~94% to 100% in S&amp;P 500 and other US and Global indices after Berkshire halved its stake in Apple (AAPL US) .
Forecasted demand from S&amp;P 500 and S&amp;P TMI is 164.2m shares, $37.1bn and 3.0 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024.
Materialization of the free float increase is uncertain due to debatable strategic shareholder classification. ETF ratios and current free float improve the confidence of the forecast. 


Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.</li>
<li>The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.</li>
<li>Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.


[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

United States

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries in a variety of business sectors.  The Company's principal operations are insurance business conducted nationwide on a primary basis and worldwide on a reinsurance basis. Berkshire's other operations include a railway company, a specialty chemical company, and an international association of diversified businesses.

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US)

Ares Management’s $3.7 Billion Acquisition: Shift for the U.S. And Global Index

Ares Management's $3.7B acquisition of GLP Capital’s international ops enhances its footprint and index presence, driving potential passive demand.

Harry Kalfas

[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

Occidental's Q3 EPS is expected to decline due to a sharp drop in US average realized oil and natural gas prices. The firm’s high debt levels...

Mint Finance

Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500

On 20 September 2024, there were ~260m shares, ~4.4 ADV in passive fund demand based on that day’s volume and the 3-month ADTV. This verifies the...

Dimitris Ioannidis

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

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