Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Equity Bottom-Up

Paint distributors indicate flat YoY demand in 4QFY18 despite low baseIn our recent interaction with a number of paint dealers in Western and Northern India, we found that end-user decorative paint demand continues to languish. End-user demand for decorative paints is flattish to up marginally YoY in 4QFY18 despite having a favorable base, as demand was impacted significantly in the first half of 4QFY17 owing to the lingering effects of demonetization. This implies that after seeing restocking…

Paint distributors indicate flat YoY demand in 4QFY18 despite low baseIn our recent interaction with a number of paint dealers in Western and Northern India, we found that end-user decorative paint demand continues to languish. End-user demand for decorative paints is flattish to up marginally YoY in 4QFY18 despite having a favorable base, as demand was impacted significantly in the first half of 4QFY17 owing to the lingering effects of demonetization. This implies that after seeing restocking…

India Consumer Discretionary: Decorative Paint Demand Flattish YoY in 4QFY18

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation concerns.<ul>
<li>Within an industry where pressure to consolidate appears to be growing, we find Kansai Paint's relatively restrained approach to be the least risky. Our view is that cost-synergies are likely to be limited outside of the decorative paints market and are unlikely to be exceedingly large even there.</li>
<li>Buying brands and scale is not in and of itself a negative…</li>
</ul>

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation concerns.
Within an industry where pressure to consolidate appears to be growing, we find Kansai Paint's relatively restrained approach to be the least risky. Our view is that cost-synergies are likely to be limited outside of the decorative paints market and are unlikely to be exceedingly large even there.
Buying brands and scale is not in and of itself a negative…


Kansai Paint: Emerging Markets Exposure, M&A and Gearing to a South African Recovery

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since 1QFY18 was impacted by destocking owing to impending GST rollout and 2Q has been impacted by restocking, we decided to look at 1HFY18 performance for our discretionary universe. The following are the key takeaways-<ul><li>Consumer Durables- Supply chain least impacted by GST, reports stellar growth</li><li>Paints- Festive demand weaker than anticipated, inadequate price hikes to defray input cost inflation impact profitability.</li><li>Consumer electrical- Supply chain unorganized and heavily impacted by GST. Demand remains weak, inadequate price hikes to defray input cost inflation impact profitability.</li><li>Cooling products- Blue Star’s consumer business grew faster than Voltas’; project business profitability improves for both; Symphony recovers ground in 2Q.</li><li>Building materials- Supply chain unorganized and heavily impacted by GST, demand remains weak, inadequate price hikes to defray input cost inflation impact profitability.</li></ul>

Since 1QFY18 was impacted by destocking owing to impending GST rollout and 2Q has been impacted by restocking, we decided to look at 1HFY18 performance for our discretionary universe. The following are the key takeaways-Consumer Durables- Supply chain least impacted by GST, reports stellar growthPaints- Festive demand weaker than anticipated, inadequate price hikes to defray input cost inflation impact profitability.Consumer electrical- Supply chain unorganized and heavily impacted by GST. Demand remains weak, inadequate price hikes to defray input cost inflation impact profitability.Cooling products- Blue Star’s consumer business grew faster than Voltas’; project business profitability improves for both; Symphony recovers ground in 2Q.Building materials- Supply chain unorganized and heavily impacted by GST, demand remains weak, inadequate price hikes to defray input cost inflation impact profitability.

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways of 2QFY18 Results

<ul class=""><li>Consumer Durables- Excellent April and May drives beat.</li><li>Paints- De-stocking impacts volumes, GST’s anti-profiteering clause puts lid on near-term price hikes.</li><li>Consumer electrical- Severely impacted by channel de-stocking; restocking and price hikes will be gradual.</li><li>Footwear- Strong growth after a lackluster FY17 but margins hurt.</li></ul>

Consumer Durables- Excellent April and May drives beat.Paints- De-stocking impacts volumes, GST’s anti-profiteering clause puts lid on near-term price hikes.Consumer electrical- Severely impacted by channel de-stocking; restocking and price hikes will be gradual.Footwear- Strong growth after a lackluster FY17 but margins hurt.

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways from 1QFY18 Result (Part 1/2)

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore Limited manufactures petrochemicals and fertilisers.  The Group's products include Ammonia, Sulphuric Acid, Phosphoric Acid, Ammonium, Urea, Caprolactam, Nitric Acid and Soda Ash.

Deepak Nitrite Limited manufactures chemicals and fertilizers. The Company's products include sodium nitrite/nitrate, nitric acid, ammonium nitrate, and Hydroxylamine Sulphate.  Deepak Nitrite's other two divisions manufacture dyes & dyestuffs and nitro aromatics.

PI Industries Limited manufactures agricultural and fine chemicals, and polymers. The Company produces fine chemicals; crop protection, plant nutrients, and seeds; and engineering plastics for use in the automobile, electrical, and home appliances industries.

Supreme Industries Limited manufactures industrial and engineered molded products and storage and material handling crates.  The Company also manufactures chemicals, multilayer sheets, multilayer films, packaging films and expanded polyethylene foam, PVC pipes and fittings, molded furniture and disposable EPS containers.

Linde India Limited manufactures and distributes oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, argon and specialty gas mixtures. The Company also manufactures welding electrodes, rods, fluxes, gas and electric welding equipment, as well as air separation and gas plants, cryogenic equipment and liquid oxygen explosives.

Coromandel International Ltd. manufactures fertilizers and pesticides.  The Company produces both chemical and organic fertilizers, insecticides, fungicides, herbcides, and plant biostimulant.

UPL Ltd. manufactures, distributes and exports off-patent agrochemicals. The Company also manufactures phosphorus & phosphorus-based compounds and its products include herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, fumigants and rodenticides. United Phosphorus also manufactures industrial chemicals, specialty chemicals and chloralkaline products

Castrol (India) Limited manufactures and markets automotive and industrial lubricants and specialty products. The Company's products include lubricating oils, greases and brake fluids. The Company also manufactures cable filling compounds, jellies, waxes and other items.

Solar Industries India Limited manufactures and supplies explosives and explosives accessories. The company's products include bulk, cartridge, detonators, detonating cords Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate ("PETN"), and cast boosters.

Aarti Industries Limited develops and manufactures basic bulk chemicals, dyes and pigment intermediates, pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals, rubber chemicals, surfactant intermediates, and specialty chemicals. The company sells its products in India and elsewhere throughout the world.

TORAY INDUSTRIES, INC. manufactures yarns, synthetic fibers, and man-made leather used as apparel and industrial materials.  The Company also makes chemical products such as polyester films, engineering plastics, and resin materials.  Toray develops information equipment such as electronic circuit and liquid crystal color filter.

Orica Limited is a diversified manufacturing company.  The Company produces industrial and specialty chemicals, polyethylene, surface coatings for vehicles, food and beverage flavoring and fragrances, packaging and appliances. The Company also supplies explosive and blasting services to the mining, quarrying and construction industries.

Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. manufactures and markets a variety of chemical products. The Company's products include ethylene, propylene and other petrochemicals, basic chemicals, synthetic resins, and fine chemicals.  The Company operates worldwide.

Zhejiang Huafeng Spandex Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets spandex products.

Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation manufactures and markets petrochemical products, nylon fiber, and rayon staple fiber.  Formosa sells its products in Taiwan and exports to Asia.

Satelltte Chemical Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells acrylic acid esters, methacrylic acids, pigment intermediates, acrylic emulsion polymers, super absorbent polymers, and other acrylic downstream products.

Balchem Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets specialty performance ingredients for the food, feed, and medical sterilization industries. The Company micro-encapsulates performance ingredients, and also repackages and markets specialty gases. Balchem sells its products through its own sales force, independent distributors, and sales agents.

TongKun Group Co., Ltd. develops, produces and sells polyester and Terylene filament.  The Company also invests in real estate, finance, business trade and education businesses.

Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. develops, manufactures and sells lithium products.  The Company's products include industrial lithium carbonate, battery lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide.

Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets fertilizers and other chemical products.  The Company's products include synthetic ammonia, urea, nitramine, pentaerythritol, sodium formate, and polyformaldehyde.  Yunnan Yuntianhua also manufactures glass fibers and lubricants.

Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins. The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and others.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Berger Paints India (BRGR IN)

India Consumer Discretionary: Decorative Paint Demand Flattish YoY in 4QFY18

Paint distributors indicate flat YoY demand in 4QFY18 despite low baseIn our recent interaction with a number of paint dealers in Western and...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Kansai Paint: Emerging Markets Exposure, M&A and Gearing to a South African Recovery

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation...

Mio Kato

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways of 2QFY18 Results

Since 1QFY18 was impacted by destocking owing to impending GST rollout and 2Q has been impacted by restocking, we decided to look at 1HFY18...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways from 1QFY18 Result (Part 1/2)

Consumer Durables- Excellent April and May drives beat. Paints- De-stocking impacts volumes, GST’s anti-profiteering clause puts lid on near-term...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)