IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>’s valuation is dependent on three key assets – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanmore-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1" rel="noopener">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> and Ravenswood. GEMS/SMR have observable values.</li>
<li>The valuation of GEAR's 50% stake in Ravenswood gets little publicity largely as it is unlisted. However, the annual report provides data points to value this key gold asset. </li>
<li>Based on peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples, Ravenswood 50% stake is worth S$200-465 million. Using the midpoint valuation, the SoTP valuation is S$1.40 (39% upside to the last close).</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)’s valuation is dependent on three key assets – Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ), Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) and Ravenswood. GEMS/SMR have observable values.
The valuation of GEAR's 50% stake in Ravenswood gets little publicity largely as it is unlisted. However, the annual report provides data points to value this key gold asset. 
Based on peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples, Ravenswood 50% stake is worth S$200-465 million. Using the midpoint valuation, the SoTP valuation is S$1.40 (39% upside to the last close).


Golden Energy (GER SP): Annual Report Data Points Further Underscore a Low-Balled Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in April following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Then there could be another change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in April following OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)'s acquisition by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
Then there could be another change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in June.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.
Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a> Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


The OZ Minerals (OZL AU) Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by BHP Group (BHP AU) will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.
Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA

Australia

Bellevue Gold Limited operates as a mining company. The Company engages in the exploration and development of gold mines. Bellevue Gold serves customers in Australia.

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Bellevue Gold (BGL AU)

Golden Energy (GER SP): Annual Report Data Points Further Underscore a Low-Balled Offer

The annual report released today provides data points to value the largely ignored Ravenswood gold asset. GEAR's 50% Ravenswood stake is worth...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

OZL's acquisition by BHP is nearly a done deal. Passive trackers will sell 18.24m shs (A$509m; 9.6x ADV) of OZL on the last trading day. There will...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Golden Energy (GER SP): Annual Report Data Points Further Underscore a Low-Balled Offer

The annual report released today provides data points to value the largely ignored Ravenswood gold asset. GEAR's 50% Ravenswood stake is worth...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

OZL's acquisition by BHP is nearly a done deal. Passive trackers will sell 18.24m shs (A$509m; 9.6x ADV) of OZL on the last trading day. There will...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes