IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> is offering 11 million shares to raise $471 million through an HKEx secondary listing. The primary/secondary spilt is 50:50 (Sina is the secondary seller).  </li>
<li>Weibo is navigating macro and regulatory headwinds by delivering better than expected top-line growth, strong margins and cash generation. </li>
<li>While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is undemanding in comparison to historical P/E and PEG ratios. </li>
</ul>



Weibo Corp (WB US) is offering 11 million shares to raise $471 million through an HKEx secondary listing. The primary/secondary spilt is 50:50 (Sina is the secondary seller).  
Weibo is navigating macro and regulatory headwinds by delivering better than expected top-line growth, strong margins and cash generation. 
While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is undemanding in comparison to historical P/E and PEG ratios. 


Weibo Secondary Listing: Braving Uncertainty

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kuaishou’s 3Q2021 revenues grew 33.4% YoY to RMB20.5bn (vs consensus RMB20bn) while operating losses for the quarter widened to 36.1% of revenues vs 9.0% in 3Q2020.</li>
<li>Live streaming revenues for the quarter decreased 3.0% YoY to RMB7.7bn, however, it has increased 7.4% sequentially after seeing QoQ declines over the last 6 quarters.</li>
<li>Online marketing services reported another quarter of strong growth with revenues increasing 76.5% YoY to RMB11.0bn. However, we have observed that the growth is decelerating.</li>
</ul>


Kuaishou’s 3Q2021 revenues grew 33.4% YoY to RMB20.5bn (vs consensus RMB20bn) while operating losses for the quarter widened to 36.1% of revenues vs 9.0% in 3Q2020.
Live streaming revenues for the quarter decreased 3.0% YoY to RMB7.7bn, however, it has increased 7.4% sequentially after seeing QoQ declines over the last 6 quarters.
Online marketing services reported another quarter of strong growth with revenues increasing 76.5% YoY to RMB11.0bn. However, we have observed that the growth is decelerating.


Kuaishou 3Q2021: ARPPU and User Growth Point to Recovery in Live Streaming Earnings

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe Kuaishou (KS)’s loss was acceptable, as the rapid growth of active users are extremely valuable.</li>
<li>Online marketing revenue and e-commerce revenue increased dramatically and the declining rate of live streaming slowed down.</li>
<li>We believe the stock will have an upside of 36% for the end of 2022.</li>
</ul>


We believe Kuaishou (KS)’s loss was acceptable, as the rapid growth of active users are extremely valuable.
Online marketing revenue and e-commerce revenue increased dramatically and the declining rate of live streaming slowed down.
We believe the stock will have an upside of 36% for the end of 2022.


Kuaishou (1024 HK): 3Q21, Growth Rates of Active Users Recovered Strongly

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> has announced the terms for its IPO where it plans to issue 16m shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$190-220 per share.</li>
<li>At the midpoint of HK$205 per share, the company will raise net proceeds of HK$3.1bn (approx. US$406m) at a market capitalisation of HK$42.6bn and post-money EV of HK$34.5bn</li>
<li>Cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for approx. US$350m worth of IPO shares which accounts for about 83.15% of the total no. of shares offered at the IPO (excl. over-allotment).</li>
</ul>



Cloud Village (CLV HK) has announced the terms for its IPO where it plans to issue 16m shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$190-220 per share.
At the midpoint of HK$205 per share, the company will raise net proceeds of HK$3.1bn (approx. US$406m) at a market capitalisation of HK$42.6bn and post-money EV of HK$34.5bn
Cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for approx. US$350m worth of IPO shares which accounts for about 83.15% of the total no. of shares offered at the IPO (excl. over-allotment).


Cloud Village IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> is the second-largest online music platform after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> in China. It has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-not-yet-a-sound-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61441" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment</a>, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



Cloud Village (CLV HK) is the second-largest online music platform after Tencent Music (TME US) in China. It has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point.
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. 


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

Weibo Secondary Listing: Braving Uncertainty

Weibo is offering 11m shares through an HKEx secondary listing. While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is...

Arun George

Kuaishou 3Q2021: ARPPU and User Growth Point to Recovery in Live Streaming Earnings

After seeing continued decline in live streaming revenues, paying users and ARPPU have started recovering in 3Q2021. User acquisition and focus on...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kuaishou (1024 HK): 3Q21, Growth Rates of Active Users Recovered Strongly

We believe Kuaishou (KS)’s loss was acceptable, as active user bases grew fast. We believe the stock will have an upside of 36% for the end of 2022.

Ming Lu

Cloud Village IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Cloud Village plans to raise net proceeds of around US$400m and our analysis shows that the company's IPO is priced on the expensive side and is...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights

Cloud Village has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive....

Arun George

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