HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The driving force for the big performance growth of domestic culture medium companies mainly come from the logic of import substitution. We think there are investment opportunities in this industry.</li>
<li>Due to soaring costs of electricity prices, raw material prices and transportation costs, European pharmaceutical plants are facing difficulties in sustaining production. Chinese API enterprises could face expansion opportunities.</li>
<li>For industries that have been recognized by investors,the market begins to think in terms of long logic from a broader perspective rather than simply tracking the performance of individual companies.</li>
</ul>


The driving force for the big performance growth of domestic culture medium companies mainly come from the logic of import substitution. We think there are investment opportunities in this industry.
Due to soaring costs of electricity prices, raw material prices and transportation costs, European pharmaceutical plants are facing difficulties in sustaining production. Chinese API enterprises could face expansion opportunities.
For industries that have been recognized by investors,the market begins to think in terms of long logic from a broader perspective rather than simply tracking the performance of individual companies.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov4)-Opportunity in Culture Medium, European API, Long Logic of Investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>’s share price had some rebounds last week, which could be related to some positive progress on business and the picking-up market sentiment in healthcare sector. </li>
<li>We increased overall sales forecast for Innovent by including the two new products from Sanofi. But it’s still far from the management's target of RMB20 billion sales in 5 years.</li>
<li>Innovent’s current commercialization capability is like a "semi-finished product", and has long way to go. It lacks the second big product except PD-1 to “pave the way” for next-stage development.</li>
</ul>



Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)’s share price had some rebounds last week, which could be related to some positive progress on business and the picking-up market sentiment in healthcare sector. 
We increased overall sales forecast for Innovent by including the two new products from Sanofi. But it’s still far from the management's target of RMB20 billion sales in 5 years.
Innovent’s current commercialization capability is like a "semi-finished product", and has long way to go. It lacks the second big product except PD-1 to “pave the way” for next-stage development.


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - The Concerns and the Outlook

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Superiority in PFS of zanubrutinib vs ibrutinib in r/r CLL. BeiGene announced superiority in PFS of BRUKINSA (zanubrutinib) vs ibrutinib in the final PFS analysis of the global Ph3 ALPINE trial in patients with r/r CLL, as assessed by both an independent review committee (IRC) and investigator.</li><li>In this head-to-head trial, a total of 652 r/r CLL/SLL patients were enrolled across Europe (60%), the US (17%), China (14%), New Zealand and Australia (9%).</li><li>The detailed data will be disclosed at an upcoming medical conference. Zanubrutinib has previously demonstrated PFS benefit at the interim analysis of ALPINE trial.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Superiority in PFS of zanubrutinib vs ibrutinib in r/r CLL. BeiGene announced superiority in PFS of BRUKINSA (zanubrutinib) vs ibrutinib in the final PFS analysis of the global Ph3 ALPINE trial in patients with r/r CLL, as assessed by both an independent review committee (IRC) and investigator.In this head-to-head trial, a total of 652 r/r CLL/SLL patients were enrolled across Europe (60%), the US (17%), China (14%), New Zealand and Australia (9%).The detailed data will be disclosed at an upcoming medical conference. Zanubrutinib has previously demonstrated PFS benefit at the interim analysis of ALPINE trial.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Superior PFS Vs Ibrutinib

<ul>
<li>There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in business model. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a> has to go all the way to the end. Otherwise, Antengene won't end up well.</li>
<li>Considering the pipeline quality/speed of clinical advancement/high cost of license-in/fierce competition/just APAC rights/limited cash balance, the biggest problem Antengene has to face is how to “survive this winter” .</li>
<li>Theoretically, Antengene is undervalued, so if willing to, investors could do short-term trade. However, due to the concerns, we are still bearish on Antengene’s outlook overall. </li>
</ul>


There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in business model. Antengene (6996 HK) has to go all the way to the end. Otherwise, Antengene won't end up well.
Considering the pipeline quality/speed of clinical advancement/high cost of license-in/fierce competition/just APAC rights/limited cash balance, the biggest problem Antengene has to face is how to “survive this winter” .
Theoretically, Antengene is undervalued, so if willing to, investors could do short-term trade. However, due to the concerns, we are still bearish on Antengene’s outlook overall. 


Antengene (6996.HK) 22H1-Defective Business Model and Uncompetitive Pipeline; Bearish on the Outlook

<ul>
<li>The plunge in medical beauty sector last week was due to the industry-wide overhaul and investigation resulting from the increase in business bribery/tax evasion/medical malpractice/customer complaints.</li>
<li>We found an interesting phenomenon – Investors dare not buy biotech, opting instead for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) companies, scientific research service companies and medical service companies.</li>
<li>If investors still want to trade CXO, here are two suggestions.</li>
</ul>


The plunge in medical beauty sector last week was due to the industry-wide overhaul and investigation resulting from the increase in business bribery/tax evasion/medical malpractice/customer complaints.
We found an interesting phenomenon – Investors dare not buy biotech, opting instead for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) companies, scientific research service companies and medical service companies.
If investors still want to trade CXO, here are two suggestions.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.25) - CXO Trading Strategy, Plunge in Medical Beauty, Belief in Biotech

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (BGNE US)

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov4)-Opportunity in Culture Medium, European API, Long Logic of Investment

Culture medium will have a rapid growth period. Due to high costs, EU Pharma face difficulty in sustaining production.Mr Market begins to think...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - The Concerns and the Outlook

Even with Sanofi's products,Innovent's sales forecast is still far from management's goal.Its commercialization capability has a long way to go.A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Superior PFS Vs Ibrutinib

In this head-to-head trial, a total of 652 r/r CLL/SLL patients were enrolled across Europe (60%), the US (17%), China (14%), New Zealand and...

CMB International

Antengene (6996.HK) 22H1-Defective Business Model and Uncompetitive Pipeline; Bearish on the Outlook

There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in business model.Antengene has to go all the way to the end. Otherwise, it won't end up well. The...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.25) - CXO Trading Strategy, Plunge in Medical Beauty, Belief in Biotech

If investor still want to trade CXO,here are two suggestions; The plunge in medical beauty sector last week was due to industry-wide...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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