Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.
I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. 


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Bio-Heart Biological Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There are three main ways for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to enter global markets, but the results are completely different. Investors are advised to make cautious judgments based on different cases. </li>
<li>Speed is a crucial factor in the competition for drug development, but there’re precedents in history that late-comers are still able to turn things around, such as GLP-1/weight loss drugs.</li>
<li>We remain conservative about the future commercialization performance of Bio-Heart's BRS and Iberis 2nd. However, the product launch is a catalyst for share price, which provides a good short-term trade opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are three main ways for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to enter global markets, but the results are completely different. Investors are advised to make cautious judgments based on different cases. 
Speed is a crucial factor in the competition for drug development, but there’re precedents in history that late-comers are still able to turn things around, such as GLP-1/weight loss drugs.
We remain conservative about the future commercialization performance of Bio-Heart's BRS and Iberis 2nd. However, the product launch is a catalyst for share price, which provides a good short-term trade opportunity.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.12) - Three Globalization Strategies, GLP-1/Weight Loss Drug, Bio-Heart

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BeiGene (BGNE) reported C1Q23 top line 7% and gross margin 1.5ppt above our estimates, leading to non-GAA operating loss 23% narrower than our estimate. </li>
<li>We raise BRUKINSA’s peak year sales from US$5bn to US$5.8bn while cutting Tislelizumab’s peak sales from US$1.5bn to US$1.2bn. </li>
<li>With transition to a biopharma complete, BGNE should enjoy a higher multiple; We raised TP from US$219 to US$254 and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene (BGNE) reported C1Q23 top line 7% and gross margin 1.5ppt above our estimates, leading to non-GAA operating loss 23% narrower than our estimate. 
We raise BRUKINSA’s peak year sales from US$5bn to US$5.8bn while cutting Tislelizumab’s peak sales from US$1.5bn to US$1.2bn. 
With transition to a biopharma complete, BGNE should enjoy a higher multiple; We raised TP from US$219 to US$254 and maintain BUY.


[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Valuation Adjustment Can Drive the Stock Upside

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>As of 8 May, we see three potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> at the June rebalance. This is mainly driven by the inclusions.</li>
<li>There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on all stocks with the largest impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> at nearly 4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing on the potential adds as they have run up a lot in the last few months.</li>
</ul>


As of 8 May, we see three potential changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) at the June rebalance. This is mainly driven by the inclusions.
There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on all stocks with the largest impact on BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) at nearly 4 days of ADV.
Short interest has been increasing on the potential adds as they have run up a lot in the last few months.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

<ul>
<li>A significant change in 23Q1 was not just a narrowing of net loss, but a sudden turnaround in sales profit under the rapid revenue growth, which was an important leap.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s commercialization capabilities largely rely on high expense level that significantly deviating from the industry average, making eventual commercialization success more difficult. BeiGene is an "outlier" even among global peers.</li>
<li>How to control expenses while ensuring sustained sales growth and long-term competitiveness is an important issue for BeiGene. If no new blockbuster product emerges ultimately, high valuation would not last.</li>
</ul>


A significant change in 23Q1 was not just a narrowing of net loss, but a sudden turnaround in sales profit under the rapid revenue growth, which was an important leap.
BeiGene’s commercialization capabilities largely rely on high expense level that significantly deviating from the industry average, making eventual commercialization success more difficult. BeiGene is an "outlier" even among global peers.
How to control expenses while ensuring sustained sales growth and long-term competitiveness is an important issue for BeiGene. If no new blockbuster product emerges ultimately, high valuation would not last.


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q1 - Qualitative Changes Are Taking Place

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (BGNE US)

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) as ADDs and Country Garden Services (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as DELs.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (May.12) - Three Globalization Strategies, GLP-1/Weight Loss Drug, Bio-Heart

There're three ways for companies to enter global markets, but the results are different.Late-comers can still turn things around, such as GLP-1...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Valuation Adjustment Can Drive the Stock Upside

We raise BRUKINSA’s peak year sales from US$5bn to US$5.8bn while cutting Tislelizumab’s peak sales from US$1.5bn to US$1.2bn. We raised TP from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

There could be 3 changes for the FXI in June. Some stocks are close to the add/delete zone, so relative perf needs to be watch. Passive trackers...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q1 - Qualitative Changes Are Taking Place

BeiGene made breakthrough in sales profit in 23Q1.But to achieve overall breakeven needs the success of the 3rd blockbuster drug.When such...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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