Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.</li>
<li>Although the market treated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.</li>
<li>Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.</li>
</ul>


Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.
Although the market treated MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.
Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Leading up to the GoTo IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.</li>
<li>It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.</li>
</ul>


Leading up to the GoTo IPO, Beenos Inc (3328 JP) shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.

GoTo (GOTO IJ) opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.
It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.


Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

<ul>
<li>Among many e-commerce names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.</li>
<li>Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.</li>
<li>At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


Among many e-commerce names, MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.
Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.
At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> is a relatively small cross border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥63.2bn in the last four quarters.</li>
<li>The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in startups in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.</li>
<li>At 1.3x FY+2 consolidated revenue and 8.2x FY+2 consolidated EBITDA, Beenos may not look exceedingly cheap compared to the internet companies in Japan. However, it is important to note that around 50% of Beenos’ market cap comes from minority investments under its incubator platform (not reflected in consolidated revenue and EBITDA) which effectively halves the above valuation multiples.</li>
<li>Moreover, Beenos has done some extremely successful investments under its incubator program over the years, including Tokopedia and the Indian car sales marketplace Droom. These two investments are expected to have their IPOs soon with significant unrealised gains to early-stage investors like Beenos.</li>
</ul>



Beenos Inc (3328 JP) is a relatively small cross border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥63.2bn in the last four quarters.
The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in startups in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.
At 1.3x FY+2 consolidated revenue and 8.2x FY+2 consolidated EBITDA, Beenos may not look exceedingly cheap compared to the internet companies in Japan. However, it is important to note that around 50% of Beenos’ market cap comes from minority investments under its incubator platform (not reflected in consolidated revenue and EBITDA) which effectively halves the above valuation multiples.
Moreover, Beenos has done some extremely successful investments under its incubator program over the years, including Tokopedia and the Indian car sales marketplace Droom. These two investments are expected to have their IPOs soon with significant unrealised gains to early-stage investors like Beenos.


Beenos: NAV Discount to Reach 46% Following GoTo & Droom Valuation Adjustments

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

<ul><li>We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that, at the slated US$40bn IPO valuation for the Southeast Asian unicorn, would account for more than 80% of the US$270m enterprise value.</li><li>MM2 Asia (MM2 SP) has signed an SPA to dispose of their cinema business as part of an ongoing restructuring of the media and entertainment group</li><li>Metro Pacific (MPI PM) accelerated repurchases of a further 224.8m shares during the past week taking the 30-day tally to 1.71% shares out.</li></ul>

We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that, at the slated US$40bn IPO valuation for the Southeast Asian unicorn, would account for more than 80% of the US$270m enterprise value.MM2 Asia (MM2 SP) has signed an SPA to dispose of their cinema business as part of an ongoing restructuring of the media and entertainment groupMetro Pacific (MPI PM) accelerated repurchases of a further 224.8m shares during the past week taking the 30-day tally to 1.71% shares out.

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 6

Japan

Beenos Inc sells various type of merchandise using group-buying method through Internet. The Company's merchandises include fashion goods, brand goods, convenience goods, baby goods, and toiletry goods.

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Beenos Inc (3328 JP)

MonotaRo: Not a Pandemic Stock

With the share price down 51% from the peak at one point, markets discounted MonotaRo alongside the rest of the pandemic stocks, even though the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

Although it may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, we think that there’s further upside over the medium-term as exposure to a high-profile...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MonotaRo: A Rare Winner in E-Commerce

While most e-commerce players are fighting each other and the e-commerce arms of traditional businesses, MonotaRo operates in a niche with very...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Beenos: NAV Discount to Reach 46% Following GoTo & Droom Valuation Adjustments

GoTo and Droom are two of the biggest investments of Beenos’ incubator program. These two extremely successful companies are expected to IPO soon...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 6

We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that at the slated...

Lloyd Moffatt

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