'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress.

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On December 17th 2018, the TSE announced a somewhat strange and unexpected treatment of the TSE-calculated indices for two companies where shares were issued to shareholders of a foreign company where the Japanese company had acquired the foreign company through a Scheme of Arrangement under foreign jurisdiction. The two companies were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13749" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13749:1">LIFULL (2120 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>.The announcements for <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1044/b5b4pj000002mamy-att/e_tuuti.pdf" target="_blank">TOPIX</a> and <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1044/b5b4pj000002maqs-att/new_E.pdf" target="_blank">JPX Nikkei 400</a> were made then, and despite the events being entirely similar in construct, but different in month of Scheme Effective Date, they were put in the same month for Mitula and the first tranche of the Takeda inclusion, which was split between two months because of its large impact. The large IPO last month of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> means there is another large inclusion going effective as of the open of trading on 31 January. Wednesday is going to be a big day.If everyone trades their required index amount on the day, it should be a trillion yen plus of flows.

On December 17th 2018, the TSE announced a somewhat strange and unexpected treatment of the TSE-calculated indices for two companies where shares were issued to shareholders of a foreign company where the Japanese company had acquired the foreign company through a Scheme of Arrangement under foreign jurisdiction. The two companies were LIFULL (2120 JP) and Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP).The announcements for TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 were made then, and despite the events being entirely similar in construct, but different in month of Scheme Effective Date, they were put in the same month for Mitula and the first tranche of the Takeda inclusion, which was split between two months because of its large impact. The large IPO last month of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) means there is another large inclusion going effective as of the open of trading on 31 January. Wednesday is going to be a big day.If everyone trades their required index amount on the day, it should be a trillion yen plus of flows.

31 January TOPIX & JPX Nikkei 400 Major Index Changes

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We all know that Japan has tried to give the impression that they are improving corporate governance. However, when you start to dig into the numbers you see that it is basically just window dressing. We looked at the ages of the Independent Directors and they are not young.... Most should be gardening somewhere in Shizuoka.

We all know that Japan has tried to give the impression that they are improving corporate governance. However, when you start to dig into the numbers you see that it is basically just window dressing. We looked at the ages of the Independent Directors and they are not young.... Most should be gardening somewhere in Shizuoka.  

Independent Director Is a Great Way to Supplement Retirement in Japan....

Last week, TSE MOTHERS-listed US$300mm market cap consulting company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25985" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1">BayCurrent Consulting Inc (6532 JP)</a><a href="http://v4.eir-parts.net/v4Contents/View.aspx?cat=tdnet&amp;sid=1520576" target="_blank">announced</a> that it would execute a Tachiaigai Bunbai Offering to sell 773,400 shares which would be an increase in float of about 7%. The dates announced were October 24-27th. Yesterday after the close Baycurrent <a href="http://v4.eir-parts.net/v4Contents/View.aspx?cat=tdnet&amp;sid=1521301" target="_blank">announced</a> that Offering would take place this morning before the open at a price of ¥2,104/share, a 2.59% discount to today's close price of ¥2,160/share. The maximum number of shares…

Last week, TSE MOTHERS-listed US$300mm market cap consulting company BayCurrent Consulting Inc (6532 JP)announced that it would execute a Tachiaigai Bunbai Offering to sell 773,400 shares which would be an increase in float of about 7%. The dates announced were October 24-27th. Yesterday after the close Baycurrent announced that Offering would take place this morning before the open at a price of ¥2,104/share, a 2.59% discount to today's close price of ¥2,160/share. The maximum number of shares…

Baycurrent Consulting - Aiming at TOPIX Promotion

Japan

Baycurrent Consulting , Inc. offers comprehensive consulting services in a wide variety of industries. The company's main focus areas are business strategy consulting, IT consulting, and IT integration.

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BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

31 January TOPIX & JPX Nikkei 400 Major Index Changes

On December 17th 2018, the TSE announced a somewhat strange and unexpected treatment of the TSE-calculated indices for two companies where shares...

Travis Lundy

Independent Director Is a Great Way to Supplement Retirement in Japan....

We all know that Japan has tried to give the impression that they are improving corporate governance. However, when you start to dig into the...

Custom Products Group

Baycurrent Consulting - Aiming at TOPIX Promotion

Last week, TSE MOTHERS-listed US$300mm market cap consulting company BayCurrent Consulting Inc (6532 JP)announced that it would execute a...

Travis Lundy

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