Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.</li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.</li>
<li>Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!


The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>I see one ADD and one DELETE. Fast Retailing capping is right on the border. BayCurrent will see an upweight.</li>
<li>The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. <em>Intra-review changes</em> could be more interesting in years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
I see one ADD and one DELETE. Fast Retailing capping is right on the border. BayCurrent will see an upweight.
The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable - Less Interesting Than Before

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review was announced last night. Something of a disaster for Team Quiddity. I had expected 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs.</li>
<li>We got only one change, and that was my second choice ADD and second choice DELETE. Top 75 name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was missing in action. BIG Disappointment. 🤔</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> is in at a PAF of 0.5, with an upweight end-Sep. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> is OUT. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will see US$2.3bn of sells.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review was announced last night. Something of a disaster for Team Quiddity. I had expected 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs.
We got only one change, and that was my second choice ADD and second choice DELETE. Top 75 name Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was missing in action. BIG Disappointment. 🤔

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is in at a PAF of 0.5, with an upweight end-Sep. Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) is OUT. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will see US$2.3bn of sells.


Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal: BayCurrent (6532) IN, Mitsubishi Logi (9301) OUT (Re-IPO). Kokusai MIA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> is a high-growth consulting company. This year sees 22% annual revenue growth and 25% OP growth to Feb 2025. Q3 results come out tomorrow.</li>
<li>The stock has a fairly large and concentrated active institutional holder base, though interestingly, the foreign active insto base is very long-tailed. LOTS of investors hold this.</li>
<li>The company is likely to see an index inclusion imminently which will over time mean a buy of more than a third of Maximum Real World Float. </li>
</ul>



BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is a high-growth consulting company. This year sees 22% annual revenue growth and 25% OP growth to Feb 2025. Q3 results come out tomorrow.
The stock has a fairly large and concentrated active institutional holder base, though interestingly, the foreign active insto base is very long-tailed. LOTS of investors hold this.
The company is likely to see an index inclusion imminently which will over time mean a buy of more than a third of Maximum Real World Float. 


BayCurrent Consulting (6532) - High Growth, OK Multiple, Big Index Inclusion Coming Up?

Japan

Baycurrent Consulting , Inc. offers comprehensive consulting services in a wide variety of industries. The company's main focus areas are business strategy consulting, IT consulting, and IT integration.

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BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

The Great Dividend Reinvestment Trade of March 2025 looks like it might be "Less Great" because of Q1 cross-asset dispersion. That means Japanese...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable - Less Interesting Than Before

The September 2025 Nikkei 225 Review may be a boring affair. The changes in March 2025 suggest a lack of effort to address sector imbalance so for...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal: BayCurrent (6532) IN, Mitsubishi Logi (9301) OUT (Re-IPO). Kokusai MIA

The March Nikkei 225 review was disappointing. Only one ADD and one DELETE. Kokusai Electric passed over. Float issues? MitsuLogi is a BIG sell,...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

BayCurrent Consulting (6532) - High Growth, OK Multiple, Big Index Inclusion Coming Up?

As it gets bigger, BayCurrent Consulting has seen its growth slow somewhat, but Consensus suggests 18% CAGR for revenue, EBIT, and NetInc the next...

Travis Lundy

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