Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.</li>
<li>Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.
Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.


China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 7th January 2022, iFAST announced that it would be acquiring BFC Bank Limited (a UK-based Bank) for GBP25m (S$45.9m), and will have an 85% stake in the bank.</li>
<li>The acquisition would help iFast towards achieving its five-year plan of generating an AUA of S$100bn by 2028 with a number of other strategic benefits.  </li>
<li>However, BFC Bank is currently making losses, and it is likely that integration costs and these losses would push down iFast’s profitability as well, to the extent of potential losses.</li>
</ul>


On 7th January 2022, iFAST announced that it would be acquiring BFC Bank Limited (a UK-based Bank) for GBP25m (S$45.9m), and will have an 85% stake in the bank.
The acquisition would help iFast towards achieving its five-year plan of generating an AUA of S$100bn by 2028 with a number of other strategic benefits.  
However, BFC Bank is currently making losses, and it is likely that integration costs and these losses would push down iFast’s profitability as well, to the extent of potential losses.


IFast’s Acquisition of BFC Bank: Improved AUA at the Cost of Short-Term Profitability

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remitly-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11929:1" rel="noopener">Remitly Global (RELY US)</a> , the Seattle-based all-digital financial services provider for immigrants and their families, filed for an IPO and with the most recent S-1/A, fintech unicorn plans to raise ~$285 million at midpoint of the price range at $40/share. This implies IPO valuation of ~$7.6 billion on a fully diluted basis, including options, RSUs and warrants. PayU, a payment technology leader and one of the world’s top investors in fintech, agreed to purchase a number of Remitly shares at IPO price with an aggregate purchase price of up to $25 million in a private placement. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remitly-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11929:1" rel="noopener">Remitly Global (RELY US)</a>  applied to list common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “RELY”. Goldman Sachs and J.P Morgan are leading the IPO.

Remitly Global (RELY US) , the Seattle-based all-digital financial services provider for immigrants and their families, filed for an IPO and with the most recent S-1/A, fintech unicorn plans to raise ~$285 million at midpoint of the price range at $40/share. This implies IPO valuation of ~$7.6 billion on a fully diluted basis, including options, RSUs and warrants. PayU, a payment technology leader and one of the world’s top investors in fintech, agreed to purchase a number of Remitly shares at IPO price with an aggregate purchase price of up to $25 million in a private placement. Remitly Global (RELY US)  applied to list common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “RELY”. Goldman Sachs and J.P Morgan are leading the IPO.   

Remitly IPO. VC-Funded Disruptor Transforming Remittances

United Kingdom

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

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Barclays PLC (BARC LN)

Stick With Energy and Financials

Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and...

Vermilion Research

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

IFast’s Acquisition of BFC Bank: Improved AUA at the Cost of Short-Term Profitability

The acquisition would help iFast achieve its five-year plan of generating an AUA of S$100bn by 2028. BFC is currently making losses, alongside...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

Remitly IPO. VC-Funded Disruptor Transforming Remittances

Remitly IPO is a promising investment opportunity to increase exposure to high-growth disruptors transforming global remittance market

Andrei Zakharov

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