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Equity Bottom-Up

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co A / Equity Bottom-Up

Baosteel has announced that it will acquire Wuhan Iron &amp; Steel Co, or WISCO, through a share-swap exercise. Under the plan, Baoshan will issue 5.65 billion stocks at CNY 4.60 per share in exchange for WISCO shares, indicating a share swap ratio of 0.56/1. The transaction is subjected to approvals from minority shareholders and the respective authorities. Meanwhile, trading of Baosteel will remain suspended, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange is still reviewing the merger plan. We maintain our earnings forecasts and fair value estimate, pending the completion of the deal. Meanwhile, our no-moat rating is unchanged, as we think the combined company will still generate returns below its weighted average cost of capital in the long run amid the challenging operating environment in the steel sector.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

Baosteel has announced that it will acquire Wuhan Iron &amp; Steel Co, or WISCO, through a share-swap exercise. Under the plan, Baoshan will issue 5.65 billion stocks at CNY 4.60 per share in exchange for WISCO shares, indicating a share swap ratio of 0.56/1. The transaction is subjected to approvals from minority shareholders and the respective authorities. Meanwhile, trading of Baosteel will remain suspended, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange is still reviewing the merger plan. We maintain our earnings forecasts and fair value estimate, pending the completion of the deal. Meanwhile, our no-moat rating is unchanged, as we think the combined company will still generate returns below its weighted average cost of capital in the long run amid the challenging operating environment in the steel sector.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

Baosteel's Acquisition Plan Earnings-Dilutive in the Near Term

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

For January-July 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.1% year-to-date year-on-year, compared to 2.5% in June and 6% in May, according to our analysis of city-level data from SouFun-CREIS.The 40 major cities account for close to 40% of national sales volumes growth, and similarly for their share of new starts and completions. Ref. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-by-tier-where-is-the-action" target="_blank">our note on China Property By Tier</a>.Growth in new…

For January-July 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.1% year-to-date year-on-year, compared to 2.5% in June and 6% in May, according to our analysis of city-level data from SouFun-CREIS.The 40 major cities account for close to 40% of national sales volumes growth, and similarly for their share of new starts and completions. Ref. our note on China Property By Tier.Growth in new…

China Property: Land Sales Growth Remains Muted (Jan-Jul Data)

Growth in Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volumes for new home sales in China in July decelerated further to 26.6% on a year-to-date year-on-year basis, compared with 29% in June and 34% in May, based on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on August 12. This is in line <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weekly-china-property-sales-data-in-july-points-at-further-national-sales-growth-slowdown" target="_blank">with our estimate based on the weekly SouFun data available already end of July</a> for a smaller number of cities. We expected the figure to be "at around 25%".Year-on-year price growth, however…

Growth in Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volumes for new home sales in China in July decelerated further to 26.6% on a year-to-date year-on-year basis, compared with 29% in June and 34% in May, based on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on August 12. This is in line with our estimate based on the weekly SouFun data available already end of July for a smaller number of cities. We expected the figure to be "at around 25%".Year-on-year price growth, however…

China Property: Further Deceleration in Volume Growth But Prices Keep Rising (Official July Data)

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>In this post, Evidente draws on recent analysis undertaken by the RBA of developments in China's residential property markets.  Thanks to a number of government policies implemented since 2014, there has been a substantial pick-up in conditions since the start of the year, particularly an acceleration in residential sales, as measured by floor space sold.</li><li>The strong pick-up has supported the renewed strength in global commodity prices, but has probably contributed to key growing vulnerabilities and risks, around leverage of property developers, the still large stock of unsold housing inventory and annual growth in house prices that appears close to a peak if history is any guide. </li><li>Against this backdrop, Evidente's model portfolio retains a substantial underweight in the Materials sector, with overweights in RIO, BSL and MND representing the key exposures.  </li></ul>

In this post, Evidente draws on recent analysis undertaken by the RBA of developments in China's residential property markets.  Thanks to a number of government policies implemented since 2014, there has been a substantial pick-up in conditions since the start of the year, particularly an acceleration in residential sales, as measured by floor space sold.The strong pick-up has supported the renewed strength in global commodity prices, but has probably contributed to key growing vulnerabilities and risks, around leverage of property developers, the still large stock of unsold housing inventory and annual growth in house prices that appears close to a peak if history is any guide. Against this backdrop, Evidente's model portfolio retains a substantial underweight in the Materials sector, with overweights in RIO, BSL and MND representing the key exposures.  

China Housing: Strong Recovery but Debt and Vulnerabilities Rise

China

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

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Baoshan Iron & Steel Co A (600019 CH)

Baosteel's Acquisition Plan Earnings-Dilutive in the Near Term

Baosteel has announced that it will acquire Wuhan Iron & Steel Co, or WISCO, through a share-swap exercise. Under the plan, Baoshan will issue...

Morningstar, Inc.

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Land Sales Growth Remains Muted (Jan-Jul Data)

For January-July 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Further Deceleration in Volume Growth But Prices Keep Rising (Official July Data)

Growth in Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volumes for new home sales in China in July decelerated further to 26.6% on a year-to-date year-on-year...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Strong Recovery but Debt and Vulnerabilities Rise

In this post, Evidente draws on recent analysis undertaken by the RBA of developments in China's residential property markets. Thanks to a number...

Sam Ferraro

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