Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Thai banks are leveraged to re-opening the country to tourism. They are also leveraged to a newly proposed NPL warehouse scheme.  Where re-opening and NPL warehouse move in tandem, Thai banks can be golden.

Thai banks are leveraged to re-opening the country to tourism. They are also leveraged to a newly proposed NPL warehouse scheme.  Where re-opening and NPL warehouse move in tandem, Thai banks can be golden.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*KTB Better Results On Improving Credit Deltas: Krung Thai Bank (KTB.TB)[KTB] reported 4Q20 net profit of THB 3.5 bn, increasing THB 396 mn (13.0%) linked quarter. Despite the THB 3.2 bn (25.5%) linked quarter reduction in loss provisions, operating results actually exhibited a decline of THB 262 mn (9.0%); and*Credit Should Continue To Drive Performance: KTB’s hard work controlling credit risk is paying off, as net new NPLs increased just THB 707 mn for an annualized rate of growth of 2.6% - the lowest of the Thai banks under coverage. Provided there are no major “unknown unknowns” in the moratorium portfolio from here, we would envision KTB to at least cutting its loss provision in half from here.

*KTB Better Results On Improving Credit Deltas: Krung Thai Bank (KTB.TB)[KTB] reported 4Q20 net profit of THB 3.5 bn, increasing THB 396 mn (13.0%) linked quarter. Despite the THB 3.2 bn (25.5%) linked quarter reduction in loss provisions, operating results actually exhibited a decline of THB 262 mn (9.0%); and*Credit Should Continue To Drive Performance: KTB’s hard work controlling credit risk is paying off, as net new NPLs increased just THB 707 mn for an annualized rate of growth of 2.6% - the lowest of the Thai banks under coverage. Provided there are no major “unknown unknowns” in the moratorium portfolio from here, we would envision KTB to at least cutting its loss provision in half from here. 

Krung Thai Bank – Lower Credit Tail Risk

*Negative Jaws &amp; Operating Losses: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 4Q20 results of THB 2.4 bn, declining THB 1.6 bn (40.3%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were even worse, coming in at a negative THB 2.4 bn and declining THB 3.8 bn (2.7x) on a linked quarter basis. Results were poor across the board with negative operating jaws and poor credit being the quarter’s themes; and *Credit Still Heading In Wrong Direction: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 22.5%. Given the elevated increase in net new NPLs, that moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that loss reserves are short by nearly THB 50.0 bn or just under two years of 4Q20 PBT.

*Negative Jaws &amp; Operating Losses: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 4Q20 results of THB 2.4 bn, declining THB 1.6 bn (40.3%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were even worse, coming in at a negative THB 2.4 bn and declining THB 3.8 bn (2.7x) on a linked quarter basis. Results were poor across the board with negative operating jaws and poor credit being the quarter’s themes; and *Credit Still Heading In Wrong Direction: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 22.5%. Given the elevated increase in net new NPLs, that moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that loss reserves are short by nearly THB 50.0 bn or just under two years of 4Q20 PBT.

*Low Quality Beat: Siam Commercial Bank (SCB.TB) [SCB] reported an unimpressive 4Q20 result of THB 4.6 bn – up just THB 54 mn (1.2%) linked quarter. Were it not for strong linked quarter fee and commission growth of THB 2.8 bn (33.3%) which was primarily driven by the recognition of performance-linked compensation on bancassurance and wealth management bonus, 4Q20 results would have been an unmitigated disaster at SCB; and 
*Poor Credit and Consistently Higher Provisions To Persist: Credit trends at SCB are in complete contravention to Kasikornbank (KBANK.TB), as provisions actually increased THB 1.3 bn (9.9%) on weakened credit.SCB’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 63.2%. By our calculation, we find that SCB’s loss reserves are light in the neighborhood of THB 28 bn or 18 months of bottom-line results.

*Low Quality Beat: Siam Commercial Bank (SCB.TB) [SCB] reported an unimpressive 4Q20 result of THB 4.6 bn – up just THB 54 mn (1.2%) linked quarter. Were it not for strong linked quarter fee and commission growth of THB 2.8 bn (33.3%) which was primarily driven by the recognition of performance-linked compensation on bancassurance and wealth management bonus, 4Q20 results would have been an unmitigated disaster at SCB; and 
*Poor Credit and Consistently Higher Provisions To Persist: Credit trends at SCB are in complete contravention to Kasikornbank (KBANK.TB), as provisions actually increased THB 1.3 bn (9.9%) on weakened credit.SCB’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 63.2%. By our calculation, we find that SCB’s loss reserves are light in the neighborhood of THB 28 bn or 18 months of bottom-line results.

Siam Commercial Bank – B'assurance Masks Troubles

*Stress Continues: A competitor hosted a conference call with the management of Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK-R.TB) [KBANK] which suggests nothing positive is occurring. Credit risk remains elevated, yet half of current and projected loan growth will be used for current customer relief measures; and
*Weak Guidance: KBANK also reiterated guidance, although we weren’t left with a high degree of confidence that KBANK wouldn’t fall short in 2021.Coupled with the aforementioned credit challenges, we anticipate the roll forward of lower lending rates to continue to impact NIMs, as will the rising loan default rates.

*Stress Continues: A competitor hosted a conference call with the management of Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK-R.TB) [KBANK] which suggests nothing positive is occurring. Credit risk remains elevated, yet half of current and projected loan growth will be used for current customer relief measures; and
*Weak Guidance: KBANK also reiterated guidance, although we weren’t left with a high degree of confidence that KBANK wouldn’t fall short in 2021.Coupled with the aforementioned credit challenges, we anticipate the roll forward of lower lending rates to continue to impact NIMs, as will the rising loan default rates. 

Thailand

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services.  The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, asset management and investment banking services, to customers through its nationwide branches. It also has branches in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Laos, and Cayman Islands.

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Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)

Thai Banks – Golden

Thai banks are leveraged to a re-opening of the country to tourism and can benefit at the same time from a newly proposed NPL warehouse scheme.

Daniel Tabbush

Krung Thai Bank – Lower Credit Tail Risk

KRUNG THAI BANK: KTB reported a 4Q20 net profit increase of 13.0% linked quarter. KTB’s hard work controlling credit risk is paying off, as net new...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bangkok Bank – Going Backward

BANGKOK BANK: BBL reported weak 4Q20 results - declining 40.3% linked quarter. Results were poor across the board with negative operating jaws and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Siam Commercial Bank – B'assurance Masks Troubles

SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK: SCB reported an unimpressive 4Q20 result – up just 1.2% linked quarter. Were it not for strong bancassurance growth, 4Q20...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kasikornan – Unconvincing Call

KASIKORNBANK: KBANK 's credit risk remains elevated, yet half of current and projected loan growth will be used for current customer relief loans....

Thomas J. Monaco

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