Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. </li>
<li>Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. </li>
<li>The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.</li>
</ul>


The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. 
Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. 
The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.


US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amazon anticipates a 13% YoY rise in Q2 2024 revenue to $148.67 billion and a 58% YoY jump in EPS to $1.03, highlighting robust earnings.</li>
<li>AWS is expected to see a $1 billion increase in quarterly revenue, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth, driven by custom AI chips and model training services.</li>
<li>Analysts have reaffirmed buy ratings for Amazon, with an average target price of $228, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth prospects.</li>
</ul>


Amazon anticipates a 13% YoY rise in Q2 2024 revenue to $148.67 billion and a 58% YoY jump in EPS to $1.03, highlighting robust earnings.
AWS is expected to see a $1 billion increase in quarterly revenue, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth, driven by custom AI chips and model training services.
Analysts have reaffirmed buy ratings for Amazon, with an average target price of $228, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth prospects.


Amazon Q2 Earnings: Eyes on AWS Margins, Website Traffic, and Advancements in Chips

<ul>
<li>HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans</li>
<li>US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE</li>
<li>Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher</li>
</ul>


HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans
US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE
Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher


US Banks - Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks

<ul>
<li>Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks</li>
<li>The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses</li>
<li>The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles </li>
</ul>


Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles 


<ul>
<li>New HFD shows CRE loan decline in the most recent week sizeable, a greater decline than in any week so far this year</li>
<li>Risk aversion and demand will be drivers, and still CRE loan growth now at -2.4% YoY can see this rate of contraction far lower</li>
<li>Credit costs are the key concern for banks (risk weightings can too be an issue), where smaller banks are infinitely more exposed than the largest US banks</li>
</ul>


New HFD shows CRE loan decline in the most recent week sizeable, a greater decline than in any week so far this year
Risk aversion and demand will be drivers, and still CRE loan growth now at -2.4% YoY can see this rate of contraction far lower
Credit costs are the key concern for banks (risk weightings can too be an issue), where smaller banks are infinitely more exposed than the largest US banks


US Bank HFD - CRE Loans Down A Lot, CRE Loan Growth Can Worsen Much More, Smaller Banks Exposed

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

The headline of a NY office building selling at a 97% discount should be chilling for small US banks, which have 44% of their loans in CRE. Large...

Daniel Tabbush

Amazon Q2 Earnings: Eyes on AWS Margins, Website Traffic, and Advancements in Chips

Amazon's Q2 2024 earnings report, due 1/Aug, is expected to show 58.5% YoY growth in EPS driven by AWS expansion, e-commerce performance, and...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks

Weekly US bankruptcy filings are rising, these appear to be higher than dire days of FY20 now. High rates, high inflation, buy now pay later, are...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

US Bank HFD - CRE Loans Down A Lot, CRE Loan Growth Can Worsen Much More, Smaller Banks Exposed

US banks are seeing weekly CRE loan growth at the sharpest weekly decline all year in the most recent data. Smaller banks are more exposed to...

Daniel Tabbush

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