Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We retain Bank Negara as our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and its attractive PEG ratio relative to sound returns and strong liquidity metrics</li>
<li>We also stick with our positive call on Bank Mandiri, for its premium returns and undemanding PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat again registered worsening pre-provision returns in 2Q23, even if there was QoQ cost of risk relief; its loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward</li>
</ul>


We retain Bank Negara as our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and its attractive PEG ratio relative to sound returns and strong liquidity metrics
We also stick with our positive call on Bank Mandiri, for its premium returns and undemanding PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
Bank Rakyat again registered worsening pre-provision returns in 2Q23, even if there was QoQ cost of risk relief; its loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward


Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.</li><li>While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.</li><li>This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

<ul><li>Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)Playing it safeWe reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR12,000 (implying 1.4x 2024F PBV) as we roll over our valuation to 2024F</li><li>BBNI’s guidance for 7-9% yoy loans growth and a minimum 4.6% NIM this year should be broadly inline with our forecast</li><li>Our CoC expectation of 149bps this year should provide ample room for higher coverage on two SOE contractors, namely WIKA and WSKT, as BBNI’s management will re-allocate the provisions to other borrowers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)Playing it safeWe reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR12,000 (implying 1.4x 2024F PBV) as we roll over our valuation to 2024FBBNI’s guidance for 7-9% yoy loans growth and a minimum 4.6% NIM this year should be broadly inline with our forecastOur CoC expectation of 149bps this year should provide ample room for higher coverage on two SOE contractors, namely WIKA and WSKT, as BBNI’s management will re-allocate the provisions to other borrowers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Playing It Safe

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> booked solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp up of sakes at JIIPE.</li>
<li>JIIPE will become a more important contributor for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo</a>, as it builds a critical mass of EV-battery-related tenants plus it benefits from increasing demand from smelters for chemicals</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo</a> remains a core industrial holding in Indonesia, through both its petroleum and chemicals business plus its industrial estate, which is a multi-year growth story. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>



AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp up of sakes at JIIPE.
JIIPE will become a more important contributor for AKR Corporindo, as it builds a critical mass of EV-battery-related tenants plus it benefits from increasing demand from smelters for chemicals

AKR Corporindo remains a core industrial holding in Indonesia, through both its petroleum and chemicals business plus its industrial estate, which is a multi-year growth story. Valuations remain attractive. 


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - A Steely Operator

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Positive - High Market Share, Steady Recovery

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick

Bank Negara remains our top pick due to low PE multiples and attractive PEG ratio. We also like Bank Mandiri for its high returns and low PEs....

Victor Galliano

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Playing It Safe

Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)Playing it safeWe reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR12,000 (implying 1.4x 2024F PBV)...

BRI Danareksa Research

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - A Steely Operator

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked a solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp-up of...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick

​Bank Negara remains our top pick due to low PE multiples and attractive PEG ratio. We also like Bank Mandiri for its high returns and low PEs....

Victor Galliano

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Playing It Safe

Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)Playing it safeWe reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR12,000 (implying 1.4x 2024F PBV)...

BRI Danareksa Research

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - A Steely Operator

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked a solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp-up of...

Angus Mackintosh

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Positive - High Market Share, Steady Recovery

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Bank Negara remains our top pick due to low PE multiples and attractive PEG ratio. We also like Bank Mandiri for its high returns and low PEs....