ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a new thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian digital themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
<li>This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified by Investree's troubles. </li>
<li>We also examine PropertyGuru's results, which reveal its vulnerability to markets and we look at Indonesia's increasingly competitive logistics space, with a return to offline activity changing market focus. </li>
</ul>


CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a new thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian digital themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified by Investree's troubles. 
We also examine PropertyGuru's results, which reveal its vulnerability to markets and we look at Indonesia's increasingly competitive logistics space, with a return to offline activity changing market focus. 


Cross ASEAN Ground Zero - BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru's Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

<ul>
<li>Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.</li>
<li>Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. </li>
<li>We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.</li>
</ul>


Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.
Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. 
We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.


Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high</li>
</ul>


Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia
Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled
Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

<ul><li>The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.</li><li>In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Cross ASEAN Ground Zero - BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru's Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics

This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified...

Angus Mackintosh

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cross ASEAN Ground Zero - BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru's Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics

This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified...

Angus Mackintosh

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

​Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....