Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IDX has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> will be included in the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices at a float of <strong>66.4%</strong> at the close on 7 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a> will be deleted from the IDX30 and LQ45 indices, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/buyung-poetra-sembada-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28454:1" rel="noopener">Buyung Poetra Sembada PT (HOKI IJ)</a> will be deleted from the IDX80 index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy around 12.78% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>. Add the impact from open ended funds and that could move up to 20%. </li>
</ul>


The IDX has announced that GoTo (GOTO IJ) will be included in the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices at a float of 66.4% at the close on 7 June.

Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ) will be deleted from the IDX30 and LQ45 indices, while Buyung Poetra Sembada PT (HOKI IJ) will be deleted from the IDX80 index.
Passive trackers need to buy around 12.78% of the real float on GoTo (GOTO IJ). Add the impact from open ended funds and that could move up to 20%. 


GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> released an impressive set of FY2021 results, as new financing picked up significantly and funding and credit costs declined in 4Q2021.</li>
<li>Management is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds from the association with GoTo plus inorganic growth opportunities. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia</a> trades on 2.2x FY22E PBV with a forecast ROE of 16.2%, above its 5-year average PBV but it deserves a re-rating given its association with GoTo.</li>
</ul>



BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) released an impressive set of FY2021 results, as new financing picked up significantly and funding and credit costs declined in 4Q2021.
Management is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds from the association with GoTo plus inorganic growth opportunities. 

BFI Finance Indonesia trades on 2.2x FY22E PBV with a forecast ROE of 16.2%, above its 5-year average PBV but it deserves a re-rating given its association with GoTo.


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Catching a Digital Wave with GoTo?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active GEM managers are increasing allocations in Indonesian stocks, with all 4 of our measures of ownership increasing over the last 6-months</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is far and away the most favoured stock, held by 46% of the active EM managers in our analysis</li>
<li>However, active GEM funds are a long way from their maximum allocations in Indonesian stocks, there is plenty of headroom for allocations to grow further from here.</li>
</ul>


Active GEM managers are increasing allocations in Indonesian stocks, with all 4 of our measures of ownership increasing over the last 6-months

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is far and away the most favoured stock, held by 46% of the active EM managers in our analysis
However, active GEM funds are a long way from their maximum allocations in Indonesian stocks, there is plenty of headroom for allocations to grow further from here.


Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Headlines of UOB 3Q24 while strong at the bottom line, we have a very different read of the numbers </li>
<li>Investment &amp; trading income is more than the whole delta in UOB's net profit during 3Q24 YoY and QoQ</li>
<li>Operating costs rose 12% YoY, while net interest income was up just 1% YoY and core net fee income was up 7% YoY</li>
</ul>


Headlines of UOB 3Q24 while strong at the bottom line, we have a very different read of the numbers 
Investment &amp; trading income is more than the whole delta in UOB's net profit during 3Q24 YoY and QoQ
Operating costs rose 12% YoY, while net interest income was up just 1% YoY and core net fee income was up 7% YoY


UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio, its improving returns and efficiency ratio stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, combined with high NPL coverage and healthy CET1 ratio</li>
<li>We remain positive on Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples, its premium returns, and its robust credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk continues to weigh on its pre- and post-provision returns, with the latter being eroded further to 3Q24</li>
</ul>


Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio, its improving returns and efficiency ratio stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, combined with high NPL coverage and healthy CET1 ratio
We remain positive on Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples, its premium returns, and its robust credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia
Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk continues to weigh on its pre- and post-provision returns, with the latter being eroded further to 3Q24


Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) And Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

IDX will add GOTO to the IDX30, LQ45 & IDX80 indices at the close on 7 June. A float of 66.4% (vs 4% real float) will require passive trackers to...

Brian Freitas

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Catching a Digital Wave with GoTo?

BFIN is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds to come from the association with GoTo...

Angus Mackintosh

Active GEM Funds: Indonesia Rebound

Active GEM managers are increasing allocations in Indonesian stocks, with all 4 of our measures of ownership increasing over the last 6-months

Steven Holden

UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

UOB's results were good at bottom line, but we believe that they are misunderstood. Trading, investment income drove profit delta, not net interest...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) And Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

We like Negara and Mandiri; Negara stands out on valuation and is starting to deliver stronger returns, whilst Mandiri is attractive on PE...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

IDX will add GOTO to the IDX30, LQ45 & IDX80 indices at the close on 7 June. A float of 66.4% (vs 4% real float) will require passive trackers to...

Brian Freitas

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Catching a Digital Wave with GoTo?

BFIN is optimistic on the outlook for new financing in 2022 plus the potential for significant tailwinds to come from the association with GoTo...

Angus Mackintosh

Active GEM Funds: Indonesia Rebound

Active GEM managers are increasing allocations in Indonesian stocks, with all 4 of our measures of ownership increasing over the last 6-months

Steven Holden

UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

UOB's results were good at bottom line, but we believe that they are misunderstood. Trading, investment income drove profit delta, not net interest...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) And Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

​We like Negara and Mandiri; Negara stands out on valuation and is starting to deliver stronger returns, whilst Mandiri is attractive on PE...

Victor Galliano

We like Negara and Mandiri; Negara stands out on valuation and is starting to deliver stronger returns, whilst Mandiri is attractive on PE...