External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This is a major week for macro data with expectations of a Fed pause, driven by moderation in the inflation print, rising unemployment, and a surge in unemployment benefit claims</li><li>The FOMC's June Summary of Economic Projections will provide details on the macro trajectory, especially the prospect for rate cuts in 2024</li><li>More countries have a weakening PMI trend, with half of them in the contraction zone</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This is a major week for macro data with expectations of a Fed pause, driven by moderation in the inflation print, rising unemployment, and a surge in unemployment benefit claimsThe FOMC's June Summary of Economic Projections will provide details on the macro trajectory, especially the prospect for rate cuts in 2024More countries have a weakening PMI trend, with half of them in the contraction zoneContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - The Tipping Point

<ul><li>The US Debt Ceiling Bill has passed the Senate, allowing the Treasury to raise funds for TGA and pay debt interest</li><li>The market expects around US$1tn in new T-bill issuances, potentially reducing liquidity and increasing yield volatility</li><li>Domestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due to a slowdown in loans growth and a decline in working capital credit</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US Debt Ceiling Bill has passed the Senate, allowing the Treasury to raise funds for TGA and pay debt interestThe market expects around US$1tn in new T-bill issuances, potentially reducing liquidity and increasing yield volatilityDomestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due to a slowdown in loans growth and a decline in working capital creditContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Liquidity Headwind

<ul><li>While Bank Indonesia's recent meeting highlighted weaker growth signals, stronger expansion of fiscal spending in 2H and election-related funds will support growth</li><li>We expect BI's current policy rate stance to continue until Q3-2023, while the latest Fed Minutes Meeting indicates a potential pause</li><li>The debt ceiling negotiations will continue to be the primary focus and are expected to carry forward the positive tone established by both political parties last week</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While Bank Indonesia's recent meeting highlighted weaker growth signals, stronger expansion of fiscal spending in 2H and election-related funds will support growthWe expect BI's current policy rate stance to continue until Q3-2023, while the latest Fed Minutes Meeting indicates a potential pauseThe debt ceiling negotiations will continue to be the primary focus and are expected to carry forward the positive tone established by both political parties last weekContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Positive Market Momentum

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panin-financial-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19472:1" rel="noopener">Panin Financial (PNLF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energi-mega-persada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17534:1" rel="noopener">Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Potential adds are Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ), Panin Financial (PNLF IJ), Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ), Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO).
Potential deletions are Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ), Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ), Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We reiterate our BUY call on BSI with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR2,000 (implying 2.5x 2023F PBV) post the release of decent 1Q23 results.</li><li>Consumer financing is expected to grow by 15.9% yoy driven by the payroll-based segment.</li><li>Cost efficiency should also be a key focus for the bank until 2024F as BSI will continue to review its underperforming outlets.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We reiterate our BUY call on BSI with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR2,000 (implying 2.5x 2023F PBV) post the release of decent 1Q23 results.Consumer financing is expected to grow by 15.9% yoy driven by the payroll-based segment.Cost efficiency should also be a key focus for the bank until 2024F as BSI will continue to review its underperforming outlets.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ): Maintain Looking to Make Further Progress

Indonesia

PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. operates as a bank. The Bank offers checking accounts, credit and debit cards, loans, insurance, payment protection, phone banking, bill pay, fund transfer, and merchant services. Bank Syariah Indonesia serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)

Macro and Flows Tracker - The Tipping Point

This is a major week for macro data with expectations of a Fed pause, driven by moderation in the inflation print, rising unemployment, and a surge...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Liquidity Headwind

Domestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Positive Market Momentum

While Bank Indonesia's recent meeting highlighted weaker growth signals, stronger expansion of fiscal spending in 2H and election-related funds...

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 in July. Given emphasis on liquidity, the impact on the deletes is higher than on the adds. Historically, the...

Brian Freitas

Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ): Maintain Looking to Make Further Progress

Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate (BEST.IJ IDR 150 HOLD.TP IDR 140) Solid revenues recognition to startContent is external broker report sourced from...

BRI Danareksa Research

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