External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).</li><li>We see mixed growth prospects for 1Q24 with ST headwinds in Banks and Telco, but possible outperformers in Consumers, Retail, Healthcare.</li><li>We reiterate our view on commodities as a possible ST tactical play, along with the defensive domestic names for preferred 2Q24 exposure.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).We see mixed growth prospects for 1Q24 with ST headwinds in Banks and Telco, but possible outperformers in Consumers, Retail, Healthcare.We reiterate our view on commodities as a possible ST tactical play, along with the defensive domestic names for preferred 2Q24 exposure.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Short-Term Domestic Growth Challenges in 2Q24 May Drive Further De-Risking

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. </li>
<li>The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri</a>'s guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.</li>
</ul>



Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. 
The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.

Bank Mandiri's guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Setting the Pace in 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

Indonesia

PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. operates as a bank. The Bank offers checking accounts, credit and debit cards, loans, insurance, payment protection, phone banking, bill pay, fund transfer, and merchant services. Bank Syariah Indonesia serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)

Equity Strategy: Short-Term Domestic Growth Challenges in 2Q24 May Drive Further De-Risking

Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Setting the Pace in 2024

Bank Mandiri's guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out is value-chain lending strategy into...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

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