External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The auto sector has outperformed the Nifty Index by about 14% over the last six months on the back of the expectation of rural revival and continued margin benefit from weak input costs</li><li>In this scenario, given valuations are no longer in a comfortable zone, we believe companies with a strong product pipeline or healthy order backlog would be able to outperform the market in the coming quarters.</li><li><p>Our top picks for the sector are Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra and TVS Motors. In auto ancillaries, our top pick is Bharat Forge.</p></li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The auto sector has outperformed the Nifty Index by about 14% over the last six months on the back of the expectation of rural revival and continued margin benefit from weak input costsIn this scenario, given valuations are no longer in a comfortable zone, we believe companies with a strong product pipeline or healthy order backlog would be able to outperform the market in the coming quarters.Our top picks for the sector are Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra and TVS Motors. In auto ancillaries, our top pick is Bharat Forge.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto Preview Q1FY24 - Growth Tapers but Margins Will Remain Strong

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><ul><li>In Q1FY24, All OEMs under our coverage are likely to report margin expansion on a YoY basis (+260 bps YoY expansion).</li><li>On a QoQ basis, we forecast margin expansion for TVS/Bajaj in the 2W segment, which will be driven by higher export volume and a better product mix.</li><li>We also foresee margin improvement in Escorts Kubota with a 7% QoQ increase in tractor sales and RM tailwinds.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>

In Q1FY24, All OEMs under our coverage are likely to report margin expansion on a YoY basis (+260 bps YoY expansion).On a QoQ basis, we forecast margin expansion for TVS/Bajaj in the 2W segment, which will be driven by higher export volume and a better product mix.We also foresee margin improvement in Escorts Kubota with a 7% QoQ increase in tractor sales and RM tailwinds.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.</li>
<li>Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.</li>
<li>The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.
Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.
The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.


Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).</li><li>2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).</li><li>The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

India

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. manufactures automobiles, farm equipment and automotive components. The Company's automobile products include light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, jeep type vehicles and passenger cars. Mahindra & Mahindra also manufactures agricultural tractors, agricultural implements, internal combustion engines, industrial petrol engines, spare parts and machine tools.

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

Maharashtra Scooters Ltd. manufactures and distributes two-wheeler scooters.

Atul Auto Ltd. manufactures three-wheeled commercial diesel vehicles.

Bosch Limited manufactures a wide range of automotive parts. The Company'products includes fuel injection pumps, spark plugs, including nozzles and nozzle holders, elements, delivery valves, filters and filter inserts, glow plugs, starter motors, alternators and wipers. Bosch also manufactures hydraulics and pneumatic equipment and electric power tools and fixtures.

Hindustan Motors Limited manufactures cars, trucks, diesel engines, bulldozers, cranes, dumpers, compactors, shovels and scrapers. The Company also manufactures a wide range of steel products, axle assemblies, special purpose machine tools, hydraulic pumps and hydraulic valves.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and distributes motorized two-wheeled and three-wheeled scooters, motorcycles and mopeds.

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Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)

Auto Preview Q1FY24 - Growth Tapers but Margins Will Remain Strong

The auto sector has outperformed the Nifty Index by about 14% over the last six months on the back of the expectation of rural revival and...

HDFC Securities

Auto - Q1FY24 - Earnings Preview

On a QoQ basis, we forecast margin expansion for TVS/Bajaj in the 2W segment, which will be driven by higher export volume and a better product mix.

Axis Direct

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

HMCL IN on course correction, realizing past mistakes. Catalysts ahead. Stock undervalued, low institutional holdings demand attention!

Pranav Bhavsar

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).

Axis Direct

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

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