IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.</li>
<li>The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.</li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. </li>
</ul>


Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.
The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. 


DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

<ul>
<li>The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> to merge. </li>
<li>The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.</li>
<li>The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.</li>
</ul>


The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) to merge. 
The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.
The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.


DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

<ul>
<li>The NBTC Board has confirmed that it will decide on the DTAC/True merger on 20 October as it will receive yet another report from consultants on 14 October. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2412378/regulator-set-to-rule-on-telecom-merger-wednesday" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bangkok Post reported</a> today that NBTC would conclude that it has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the deal but will issue measures to govern it. </li>
<li>The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share price ratio.</li>
</ul>


The NBTC Board has confirmed that it will decide on the DTAC/True merger on 20 October as it will receive yet another report from consultants on 14 October. 
The Bangkok Post reported today that NBTC would conclude that it has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the deal but will issue measures to govern it. 
The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share price ratio.


DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Set to Decide on the Merger on 20 October

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), 111 Inc (YI US).
Lowest spreads - OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Link Net (LINK IJ), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).


Merger Arb Mondays (26 Sep) - Fengxiang, Lifestyle, EVOC, DTAC/True, VNET, 111, Ramsay, Genex

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2396261/nbtc-has-no-authority-to-approve-or-reject-telecom-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press reports</a> that the Council of State has stated that the regulator, NBTC, can only prescribe measures to govern the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>The Council of State decree paves the way for the merger to complete and the launch of the VTOs. The NBTC remedial measures will likely focus on consumer protection measures.</li>
<li>The current share price ratio is 9.150x vs the swap ratio of 10.221x. At last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is 4.4% and 1.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The press reports that the Council of State has stated that the regulator, NBTC, can only prescribe measures to govern the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
The Council of State decree paves the way for the merger to complete and the launch of the VTOs. The NBTC remedial measures will likely focus on consumer protection measures.
The current share price ratio is 9.150x vs the swap ratio of 10.221x. At last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is 4.4% and 1.8%, respectively.


DTAC/True Merger: Council of State’s Decree Paves the Way for Completion

Malaysia

Axiata Group Berhad is a telecommunication company.  The Company's main activities is the establishment, maintenance, and provision of telecommunications and related services.

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Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Set to Decide on the Merger on 20 October

The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (26 Sep) - Fengxiang, Lifestyle, EVOC, DTAC/True, VNET, 111, Ramsay, Genex

This week, the highest gross spreads are Fengxiang (61.1%), Alliance Aviation (48.9%), Infomedia (42.9%), Ramsay (38.8%), VNET (37.9%), 111...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: Council of State’s Decree Paves the Way for Completion

The NBTC remedial measures will likely focus on consumer protection measures. It is attractive to buy the current price ratio of 9.150x as it is a...

Arun George

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