Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.</li>
<li>Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.</li>
<li>For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.</li>
</ul>


As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.
Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.
For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.


2022 in Rear Mirror View: Top Performers From My Global Healthcare Coverage Universe

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad along with three R&amp;D centres.</li>
<li>The current employee strength is more than 8000, which includes more than 750 scientists.</li>
<li>FY22, API: formulations ratio was at 15:85. US formulations constitute 47% of revenues followed by Europe (28%), APIs (15%), RoW (6%) &amp; ARV (4%) </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad along with three R&amp;D centres.
The current employee strength is more than 8000, which includes more than 750 scientists.
FY22, API: formulations ratio was at 15:85. US formulations constitute 47% of revenues followed by Europe (28%), APIs (15%), RoW (6%) &amp; ARV (4%) 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aurobindo Pharma - US Drags Down Overall Performance; Outlook Cautious

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>ARBP delivered a 2QYF23 earnings miss, led by lower-than-expected US and ARV sales.</li><li>Sales from Europe (EU) were stable YoY in CC terms, with a pickup in API sales.</li><li>We cut our FY23/FY24 earnings estimate by 18%/13% to factor in: a) reduced demand for Injectables, led by shelf stock adjustment, b) considerable price erosion in the base portfolio in the US segment, c) adverse currency impact in the EU business, and d) increased R&amp;D spends.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ARBP delivered a 2QYF23 earnings miss, led by lower-than-expected US and ARV sales.Sales from Europe (EU) were stable YoY in CC terms, with a pickup in API sales.We cut our FY23/FY24 earnings estimate by 18%/13% to factor in: a) reduced demand for Injectables, led by shelf stock adjustment, b) considerable price erosion in the base portfolio in the US segment, c) adverse currency impact in the EU business, and d) increased R&amp;D spends.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aurobindo Pharma - Price Erosion in the US and Higher OPEX Impacts Earning

<ul><li>Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad along with three R&amp;D centres.</li><li>The current employee strength is more than 8000, which includes more than 750 scientists.</li><li>FY22, API: formulations ratio was at 15:85. US formulations constitute 47% of revenues followed by Europe (28%), APIs (15%), RoW (6%) &amp; ARV (4%) </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad along with three R&amp;D centres.The current employee strength is more than 8000, which includes more than 750 scientists.FY22, API: formulations ratio was at 15:85. US formulations constitute 47% of revenues followed by Europe (28%), APIs (15%), RoW (6%) &amp; ARV (4%) Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aurobindo Pharma (AURPHA) - US Drags Down Overall Performance; Outlook Cautious

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> in December to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT)</a> while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger should see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> prior to the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will be added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) in December to replace Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN).
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT) while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD). 
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) / HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger should see Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) prior to the June rebalance.


SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

India

Aurobindo Pharma Limited manufactures and markets oral and sterile antibiotics, antibacterials, anti-ulcerants and other generic basic drugs. Products include semi-synthetic penicillin drugs like ampicillin and amoxycillinas well as antibiotics, which include cloxacillin and dicloxacillin. The Company also manufactures formulations like astemizole, domeperidone and omeprazole.

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Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)

2022 in Rear Mirror View: Top Performers From My Global Healthcare Coverage Universe

From my coverage universe, two Taiwanese stocks generated 59% and 71% returns in nearly six months. New product launch and geography expansion are...

Tina Banerjee

Aurobindo Pharma - US Drags Down Overall Performance; Outlook Cautious

Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad...

ICICI Securities Limited

Aurobindo Pharma - Price Erosion in the US and Higher OPEX Impacts Earning

ARBP delivered a 2QYF23 earnings miss, led by lower-than-expected US and ARV sales. Sales from Europe (EU) were stable YoY in CC terms, with a...

Motilal Oswal

Aurobindo Pharma (AURPHA) - US Drags Down Overall Performance; Outlook Cautious

Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad...

ICICI Securities Limited

SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

Tata Motors will replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the Dec rebal. Passives will need to buy 7.2x delivery vol on TTMT; sell 10.5x on DRRD. Adani...

Brian Freitas

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