FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Weak retail sales in Australia speak to the biggest fear lurking over the Australian economy; that a high and rising debt load is starting to squeeze households, even before the RBA moves to tighten policy from record low interest rates.  Australia is seeing positive signs for business and government capital expenditure, but if consumers retrench this may not be enough to rebalance the economy, or will at least stretch out the time before rates can normalise.  In the meantime, a weaker exchange rate may be required to keep the economy on a sustainable path, and the nation’s growth and exchange rate are highly vulnerable to an external shock, such as lower commodity demand from China.

Weak retail sales in Australia speak to the biggest fear lurking over the Australian economy; that a high and rising debt load is starting to squeeze households, even before the RBA moves to tighten policy from record low interest rates.  Australia is seeing positive signs for business and government capital expenditure, but if consumers retrench this may not be enough to rebalance the economy, or will at least stretch out the time before rates can normalise.  In the meantime, a weaker exchange rate may be required to keep the economy on a sustainable path, and the nation’s growth and exchange rate are highly vulnerable to an external shock, such as lower commodity demand from China.

The USD has finished each of the last three years with a run higher, and it may again end on a strong note as the market looks forward to tax reform.  The market is trading cautiously, facing a number of global uncertainties.  There is underlying strength in the US economy that appears to be underappreciated, but may support a strong year-end finish in the dollar.  Global growth remains buoyant, and emerging market assets have rebounded in recent sessions.  It is possible that they spoil the dollar’s year-end party.  However, demand for EM markets is unlikely to spill over to the AUD and NZD; low and diminishing yield advantage, and sluggish equities are likely to weigh on their performance.

The USD has finished each of the last three years with a run higher, and it may again end on a strong note as the market looks forward to tax reform.  The market is trading cautiously, facing a number of global uncertainties.  There is underlying strength in the US economy that appears to be underappreciated, but may support a strong year-end finish in the dollar.  Global growth remains buoyant, and emerging market assets have rebounded in recent sessions.  It is possible that they spoil the dollar’s year-end party.  However, demand for EM markets is unlikely to spill over to the AUD and NZD; low and diminishing yield advantage, and sluggish equities are likely to weigh on their performance.

The Dollar Has Made a Habit of Year-End Rallies

The AUD executed a pop and drop around the FOMC as the market moved from focusing on over-blown expectations of looming rate hikes in Australia to weaker commodity prices.  Signs that the slowdown in the Chinese property market is accelerating add to weaker fixed asset investment growth to suggest that steel prices will fall further.  The housing market in Australia may be on the brink, and Amazon is about to crash the retail party.  Australian equities are underperforming global markets.  RBA governor Lowe told the rates market to cool its heels, again.  The rise in medium and long-term yields in Australia relative to the USA looks misplaced considering how highly leveraged are Australian households.

The AUD executed a pop and drop around the FOMC as the market moved from focusing on over-blown expectations of looming rate hikes in Australia to weaker commodity prices.  Signs that the slowdown in the Chinese property market is accelerating add to weaker fixed asset investment growth to suggest that steel prices will fall further.  The housing market in Australia may be on the brink, and Amazon is about to crash the retail party.  Australian equities are underperforming global markets.  RBA governor Lowe told the rates market to cool its heels, again.  The rise in medium and long-term yields in Australia relative to the USA looks misplaced considering how highly leveraged are Australian households.

The outlook for the AUD is facing bigger headwinds. Chinese economic growth has slowed in recent months, and iron ore and met-coal prices are weaker over the last month.  It appears that steel prices in China have turned over as fixed asset investment slows and steel inventories start to build; albeit from low levels.  The RBA minutes released on Tuesday may fuel fear of weaker commodity prices.  Its analysis suggests that Chinese long-term steel demand growth has peaked even as more iron ore supply is coming on stream.  The RBA is also seeing clearer evidence that the Australian housing market is slowing down and residential construction has peaked.  However, credit growth remains steady and household debt is still growing; increasing risks of a homegrown debt problem, even as the RBA frets about China’s debt problem.  It’s a complex outlook; employment growth and the investment outlook have improved in Australia.  However, compared to improving trends in many major and emerging economies, less leveraged to fixed asset investment in China, the Australian growth outlook is not so special.

The outlook for the AUD is facing bigger headwinds. Chinese economic growth has slowed in recent months, and iron ore and met-coal prices are weaker over the last month.  It appears that steel prices in China have turned over as fixed asset investment slows and steel inventories start to build; albeit from low levels.  The RBA minutes released on Tuesday may fuel fear of weaker commodity prices.  Its analysis suggests that Chinese long-term steel demand growth has peaked even as more iron ore supply is coming on stream.  The RBA is also seeing clearer evidence that the Australian housing market is slowing down and residential construction has peaked.  However, credit growth remains steady and household debt is still growing; increasing risks of a homegrown debt problem, even as the RBA frets about China’s debt problem.  It’s a complex outlook; employment growth and the investment outlook have improved in Australia.  However, compared to improving trends in many major and emerging economies, less leveraged to fixed asset investment in China, the Australian growth outlook is not so special.

The Australian business survey was mixed, but showed significant improvement in labour components, suggesting upside risk for the Australia labour report out on Thursday.  The latest New Zealand poll suggested that the chances of a return in the National government have increased greatly.  However, a closer look at the trends and betting odds suggests the election hangs in the balance.

The Australian business survey was mixed, but showed significant improvement in labour components, suggesting upside risk for the Australia labour report out on Thursday.  The latest New Zealand poll suggested that the chances of a return in the National government have increased greatly.  However, a closer look at the trends and betting odds suggests the election hangs in the balance.

New Zealand Election Still Hangs in the Balance; Preview of Australian Labour Data

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Australia's Deepest Fears Looming Larger

Weak retail sales in Australia speak to the biggest fear lurking over the Australian economy; that a high and rising debt load is starting to...

Greg Gibbs

The Dollar Has Made a Habit of Year-End Rallies

The USD has finished each of the last three years with a run higher, and it may again end on a strong note as the market looks forward to tax...

Greg Gibbs

AUD Executes the Pop and Drop

The AUD executed a pop and drop around the FOMC as the market moved from focusing on over-blown expectations of looming rate hikes in Australia to...

Greg Gibbs

AUD Facing Growing Headwinds

The outlook for the AUD is facing bigger headwinds. Chinese economic growth has slowed in recent months, and iron ore and met-coal prices are...

Greg Gibbs

New Zealand Election Still Hangs in the Balance; Preview of Australian Labour Data

The Australian business survey was mixed, but showed significant improvement in labour components, suggesting upside risk for the Australia labour...

Greg Gibbs

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