Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
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This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.</li>
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Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.

Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul>
<li>
This week in trade ideas, we maintain short positions on US stocks and bonds via FANG+ stocks and 30-year USTs. We are strategic long JPY and short Indian and Philippine equities. We are biased short GBP on a tactical basis.</li>
<li>
Monday: Switzerland CPI, India CPI, Trump budget plans (infra and 2019 budget blueprint), OPEC oil market report</li>
<li>
Tuesday: Japan PPI, UK CPI, IEA oil market report</li>
<li>
Wednesday: Japan GDP, Sweden Riksbank…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas, we maintain short positions on US stocks and bonds via FANG+ stocks and 30-year USTs. We are strategic long JPY and short Indian and Philippine equities. We are biased short GBP on a tactical basis.

Monday: Switzerland CPI, India CPI, Trump budget plans (infra and 2019 budget blueprint), OPEC oil market report

Tuesday: Japan PPI, UK CPI, IEA oil market report

Wednesday: Japan GDP, Sweden Riksbank…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: Inflation (US, UK, Oil Reports, India), Japan/EU GDP, Lunar New Year

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/028/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-02-08%20at%2011.28.12%20AM.png?1518051696" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44028"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
As predicted several months ago, long-term Ozzie and US government bond yields are now kissing for the first time since the Asia Crisis almost twenty years ago (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-18-years-is-a-long-time-between-kisses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15174">Chart of the Day: 18 Years Is A Long Time Between Kisses...</a>). 10-year yields for both economies are now oscillating around 2.80-2.85%. 
It is hard to overstate what a seismic shift this represents for the AUD. Its long-run, historic yield advantage over the USD has evaporated. Carry trade dynamics will no longer support the AUD. This…
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As predicted several months ago, long-term Ozzie and US government bond yields are now kissing for the first time since the Asia Crisis almost twenty years ago (see Chart of the Day: 18 Years Is A Long Time Between Kisses...). 10-year yields for both economies are now oscillating around 2.80-2.85%. 
It is hard to overstate what a seismic shift this represents for the AUD. Its long-run, historic yield advantage over the USD has evaporated. Carry trade dynamics will no longer support the AUD. This…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

In our report last week, (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bond-yields-in-driver-s-seat-time-for-correction-in-equities-and-the-usd" target="_blank">Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan</a>), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
<ul>
<li>
Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
<li>
Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
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Tuesday…</li>
</ul>
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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Inflation (US, UK, Oil Reports, India), Japan/EU GDP, Lunar New Year

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas, we maintain short positions on US stocks...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Chart of the Day: Pucker Up!

As predicted several months ago, long-term Ozzie and US government bond yields are now kissing for the first time since the Asia Crisis almost...

Richard Iley

USD Rebound Is a Creeper

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields...

Greg Gibbs

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)