Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The CPI report: once again, the inflation momentum is accelerating and inflationary pressures are broadening.</li>
<li>While mainstream headlines would focus on the 9.1% YoY print, I’d like to highlight two more relevant statistics that would worry the Fed further here.</li>
<li>MoM headline and core inflation are the highest in 20+ years: the inflation momentum is not only failing to decelerate, but it’s even picking up!</li>
</ul>


The CPI report: once again, the inflation momentum is accelerating and inflationary pressures are broadening.
While mainstream headlines would focus on the 9.1% YoY print, I’d like to highlight two more relevant statistics that would worry the Fed further here.
MoM headline and core inflation are the highest in 20+ years: the inflation momentum is not only failing to decelerate, but it’s even picking up!


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Thomas Schroeder

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Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.</li>
<li>USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.</li>
<li>USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.</li>
</ul>


USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.
USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.
USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.


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FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. </li>
<li>Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. </li>
<li>But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).</li>
</ul>


Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. 
Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. 
But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).


Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul>
<li>The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened</li>
<li>European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.</li>
<li>I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.</li>
</ul>


The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened
European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.
I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout</li>
<li>The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead</li>
<li>Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term</li>
</ul>


The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout
The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead
Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term


Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Nothing Else (Except Macro) Matters

While mainstream headlines would focus on the 9.1% YoY print, I’d like to highlight two more relevant statistics that would worry the Fed further...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Asian FX Action Levels

USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a...

Thomas Schroeder

Market Snapshot, Theatre of War

Amidst carnage in financial markets, some assets - inc US Treasury yields, some Asian and high-yielding EM currencies, AUD & NZD and even S&P 500 -...

Olivier Desbarres

Buy at the Sound of Cannons

The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened

Untying The Gordian Knot

Australia’s Bullish Prospects

The breakout in Australia's stock market looks encouraging especially when coupled with indications in other related markets.

Shyam Devani

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