New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Public relations exercise: AIA's announcement appears akin to a public relations exercise trying to convince stakeholders of the need for a significant increase in capex</li><li>Significant increases in aeronautical prices in FY24 and FY28</li><li>Balance sheet capacity issue resurfaces</li></ul>

Public relations exercise: AIA's announcement appears akin to a public relations exercise trying to convince stakeholders of the need for a significant increase in capexSignificant increases in aeronautical prices in FY24 and FY28Balance sheet capacity issue resurfaces

Auckland Airport: Building Over the Green Line

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) has confirmed the go-ahead for construction of an integrated domestic terminal having completed a more than decade long consultation process with airlines</li><li>As a result and in addition to other aeronautical projects the company now expects to spend ~NZ$3.9bn over the next five to six years.</li><li>In addition AIA will also allocate capex on non-aeronautical activities including investment property development meaning total annual capex averaging  NZ$800m-NZ$900m over the medium term.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) has confirmed the go-ahead for construction of an integrated domestic terminal having completed a more than decade long consultation process with airlinesAs a result and in addition to other aeronautical projects the company now expects to spend ~NZ$3.9bn over the next five to six years.In addition AIA will also allocate capex on non-aeronautical activities including investment property development meaning total annual capex averaging  NZ$800m-NZ$900m over the medium term.

Auckland Airport: New Domestic Terminal Confirmed

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) has reported its first underlying post-tax profit since 2H20.</li><li>Underlying NPAT of NZ$68m was ahead of market expectations and the company has upgraded full year earnings guidance</li><li>FY23 NPAT guidance has been raised from NZ$100m-NZ$130m to NZ$125m-NZ$145m, which compares to current market consensus of NZ$124m.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) has reported its first underlying post-tax profit since 2H20.Underlying NPAT of NZ$68m was ahead of market expectations and the company has upgraded full year earnings guidanceFY23 NPAT guidance has been raised from NZ$100m-NZ$130m to NZ$125m-NZ$145m, which compares to current market consensus of NZ$124m.

Auckland Airport: 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Aviation recovery in full flight: AIA's international seat capacity had returned to 69% of pre-COVID capacity by December 2022</li><li>Inflationary impact on opex and capex: Despite lowering its FY23 capex guidance, management increased its longer term annual aeronautical capex guidance by +NZ$100m to NZ$600m; this will assist its regulatory asset base (RAB) and its mid-year aeronautical price reset</li><li>Property momentum continues: Property development revenue increased +19% against the prior year as rental increases more than offset the impact of a fair value hit given cap rate pressure</li></ul>

Aviation recovery in full flight: AIA's international seat capacity had returned to 69% of pre-COVID capacity by December 2022Inflationary impact on opex and capex: Despite lowering its FY23 capex guidance, management increased its longer term annual aeronautical capex guidance by +NZ$100m to NZ$600m; this will assist its regulatory asset base (RAB) and its mid-year aeronautical price resetProperty momentum continues: Property development revenue increased +19% against the prior year as rental increases more than offset the impact of a fair value hit given cap rate pressure

Auckland Airport: 1H23 — Profits Taking-Off After Long Layover

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland International Airport (AIA AU)

Auckland Airport: Building Over the Green Line

Auckland Airport (AIA) has announced a further uplift in aeronautical capex ahead of its aeronautical re-pricing mid-year; Higher capex reflects...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: New Domestic Terminal Confirmed

Auckland Airport (AIA) has confirmed the go-ahead for construction of an integrated domestic terminal having completed a more than decade long...

Forsyth Barr

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Auckland Airport: 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

Auckland Airport (AIA) has reported its first underlying post-tax profit since 2H20 and underlying NPAT of NZ$68m was ahead of market expectations...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: 1H23 — Profits Taking-Off After Long Layover

Auckland Airport (AIA) reported a strong rebound in profitability, above market expectations, and lifted full year guidance at its 1H23 result; the...

Forsyth Barr

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