China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro environment to be conducive; </li>
<li>Our China Internet top picks are Meituan and Tencent, and investors could buy PDD and NetEase after 2Q23 earnings. </li>
<li>Domestic consumption will also bottom out, but sustainability only confines to a few, our top picks in China consumer names are Miniso, Luckin Coffee, and Atour.</li>
</ul>


We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro environment to be conducive; 
Our China Internet top picks are Meituan and Tencent, and investors could buy PDD and NetEase after 2Q23 earnings. 
Domestic consumption will also bottom out, but sustainability only confines to a few, our top picks in China consumer names are Miniso, Luckin Coffee, and Atour.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names

<ul>
<li>XPEV/NVIDIA: Xpeng ADAS head to join Nvidia ( - /+)</li>
<li>Real Estate Industry Update: Zhengzhou announced 15 supportive policies on real estate industry, including suspending the home selling restrictions, and others. Minor positive: KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$22）</li>
<li>ATAT: Popularity of summer vacation continued in July, and the supply shortage resulted in the surge of hotel ADR（+）</li>
</ul>


XPEV/NVIDIA: Xpeng ADAS head to join Nvidia ( - /+)
Real Estate Industry Update: Zhengzhou announced 15 supportive policies on real estate industry, including suspending the home selling restrictions, and others. Minor positive: KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$22）
ATAT: Popularity of summer vacation continued in July, and the supply shortage resulted in the surge of hotel ADR（+）


China TMT Update-XPEV/NVIDIA/BEKE/ATAT-Xpeng ADAS Head to Join Nvidia/Surge of Hotel ADR

<ul>
<li>ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR increased 21% vs. same period in 2019（+）</li>
<li>XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-)</li>
<li>XPEV : The VW brand concludes technological framework agreement for long-term cooperation with Xpeng (+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR increased 21% vs. same period in 2019（+）
XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-)
XPEV : The VW brand concludes technological framework agreement for long-term cooperation with Xpeng (+)


China TMT Update-ATAT/XPEV-The VW Brand Cooperate with Xpeng;G6 Capacity;Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Atour to report 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 94% YoY and 259% YoY, which is 22% and 20% above BBG consensus respectively. </li>
<li>We expect Atour’s RevPAR in 3Q23/2023 increase to 110%/114% of corresponding 2019 level from previous estimate at 105%/112%. </li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and maintain TP at US$35 because the operational gains has been mitigated by FX loss in terms of valuation</li>
</ul>


We expect Atour to report 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 94% YoY and 259% YoY, which is 22% and 20% above BBG consensus respectively. 
We expect Atour’s RevPAR in 3Q23/2023 increase to 110%/114% of corresponding 2019 level from previous estimate at 105%/112%. 
We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and maintain TP at US$35 because the operational gains has been mitigated by FX loss in terms of valuation


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$35) Preview]: Retail and Summer Travelling Are Two Catalysts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of scale.</li><li>Apart from its products, we like the Company’s high self-discipline in costs and business expansion even as it is much more resourceful than before.</li><li>We project Li Auto’s 2Q23E revenue to more than triple YoY to RMB 27.9bn, as its sales volume beat guidance.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of scale.Apart from its products, we like the Company’s high self-discipline in costs and business expansion even as it is much more resourceful than before.We project Li Auto’s 2Q23E revenue to more than triple YoY to RMB 27.9bn, as its sales volume beat guidance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Research Focus List (July Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names

We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-XPEV/NVIDIA/BEKE/ATAT-Xpeng ADAS Head to Join Nvidia/Surge of Hotel ADR

XPEV/NVIDIA: Xpeng ADAS head to join Nvidia ( - /+);Zhengzhou announced 15 supportive policies on real estate industry; the supply shortage...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-ATAT/XPEV-The VW Brand Cooperate with Xpeng;G6 Capacity;Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR

XPEV : The VW brand cooperation with Xpeng (+);XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-);ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$35) Preview]: Retail and Summer Travelling Are Two Catalysts

We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and maintain TP at US$35 because the operational gains has been mitigated by FX loss in terms of valuation

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CMBI Research Focus List (July Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of...

CMB International

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