Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Local press reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> has made significant improvement on their 5nm technology which is a significant improvement given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> 's to desire to take close the gap with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> this is a big step.  Or was it already in the cards from a prior deal?

Local press reporting that Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has made significant improvement on their 5nm technology which is a significant improvement given Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) 's to desire to take close the gap with TSMC (2330 TT) this is a big step.  Or was it already in the cards from a prior deal? 

Samsung Closed the Gap with TSMC Already at 5nm? Whoa!

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Three things caught our eye this first week of 2021: eBay, Amazon, and the spectrum auction.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Three things caught our eye this first week of 2021: eBay, Amazon, and the spectrum auction.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 1/8/2021

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201211-1277389/1277389_tes15aircaivspindnkn4.pdf?force_download=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> Friday night that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apartment-invt-mgmt-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2193:1" rel="noopener">Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US)</a> coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dunkin-brands-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15866:1" rel="noopener">Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US)</a> in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/occidental-petroleum-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17075:1" rel="noopener">Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)</a> coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team confirmed Friday night that Tesla Motors (TSLA US) would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US) coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US) in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY US) coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

NY Attorney General Letitia James filed an anti-trust lawsuit against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> which is co-sponsored by Federal Trade Commission and 46 US states. This is not dissimilar to historical legal anti-trust challenges to break up big companies such as Microsoft and AT&amp;T.  While we believe this is unlikely to be resolved soon, we believe Facebook and Big Tech have drawn bipartisan ire due to concerns about anti-competitive behaviour and the spread of disinformation. Our thoughts on the litigation as well as operational concerns are below the fold. 
Our previous research on US regulatory matters and Facebook can be found here
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-congress-passes-bill-that-could-lead-to-the-delisting-of-chinese-companies-on-us-exchanges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46004" rel="noopener">US Congress Passes Bill that Could Lead to the Delisting of Chinese Companies on US Exchanges</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lvmh-tiffany-oh-bernie-not-like-this" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43151" rel="noopener">LVMH-Tiffany: Oh Bernie, Not like This.</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/facebook-4q-results-an-easy-beat-has-zuck-turned-the-tanker" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27657" rel="noopener">Facebook 4Q Results: An Easy Beat - Has Zuck Turned the Tanker?</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/facebook-3q-results-are-the-fangs-safe-for-now" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25513" rel="noopener">Facebook 3Q Results: Are the FANGS Safe...for Now?</a>

NY Attorney General Letitia James filed an anti-trust lawsuit against Facebook Inc A (FB US) which is co-sponsored by Federal Trade Commission and 46 US states. This is not dissimilar to historical legal anti-trust challenges to break up big companies such as Microsoft and AT&amp;T.  While we believe this is unlikely to be resolved soon, we believe Facebook and Big Tech have drawn bipartisan ire due to concerns about anti-competitive behaviour and the spread of disinformation. Our thoughts on the litigation as well as operational concerns are below the fold. 
Our previous research on US regulatory matters and Facebook can be found here
US Congress Passes Bill that Could Lead to the Delisting of Chinese Companies on US Exchanges 
LVMH-Tiffany: Oh Bernie, Not like This. 
Facebook 4Q Results: An Easy Beat - Has Zuck Turned the Tanker? 
Facebook 3Q Results: Are the FANGS Safe...for Now? 

Facebook and Antitrust - The Beginning of the End for Big-Tech?

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that may eventually breakeven on FCF at some point in the future. We have said for the past two quarters that Netflix is a good relative short given Deceleration in Subscriber Growth, Rising Churn, and Rising FCF burn. As we detail below, the stock tends to not work when subscriber growth decelerates. Admittedly, the rising FCF burn hasn’t played out….yet. Once production opens up post virus, we expect Netflix to resume its cash burning ways.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that may eventually breakeven on FCF at some point in the future. We have said for the past two quarters that Netflix is a good relative short given Deceleration in Subscriber Growth, Rising Churn, and Rising FCF burn. As we detail below, the stock tends to not work when subscriber growth decelerates. Admittedly, the rising FCF burn hasn’t played out….yet. Once production opens up post virus, we expect Netflix to resume its cash burning ways.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Verizon Communications Inc. is an integrated telecommunications company that provides wire line voice and data services, wireless services, Internet services, and published directory information. The Company also provides network services for the federal government including business phone lines, data services, telecommunications equipment and payphones.

SBA Communications Corporation owns and operates wireless communications infrastructure in the United States. The Company offers site leasing and development, construction, and consulting services. SBA Communications leases antenna space on its multi-tenant towers to a variety of wireless service providers under long-term lease contracts.

Iridium Communications, Inc. offers mobile satellite communications services. The Company's satellites operate in a low-earth orbit and provide 100% global coverage.  Iridium Holdings offers voice and data communications services to the United States and foreign governments; businesses; non-governmental organizations; and consumers.

Globalstar, Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications services via satellite. The Company primarily provides business and recreational communications to industry, government, and individual customers located in remote areas throughout the world.

Cogent Communications Holdings Inc. is a next generation optical Internet servic e provider focused on delivering ultra-high speed Internet access and transport services.The Company serves businesses in the multi-tenant marketplace and servi ce providers located in major metropolitan areas across the United States.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

IDT Corporation offers consumer services focused primarily on the telecommunications industry. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail and wholesale telecommunications services and products, including pre-paid and rechargeable calling cards and wholesale carrier services.

T-Mobile US, Inc. is one of four national wireless carriers in the US. The company was created as the combination of T-Mobile USA and MetroPCS.

Anterix Inc. provides wireless communications applications. The Company focuses on delivering transformative broadband that enables the modernization of critical infrastructure for energy, transportation, and logistics sectors. Anterix serves customers in the United States.

Vodafone Group PLC is a mobile telecommunications company providing a range of services, including voice and data communications.  The Company operates in Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East through its subsidiaries, associates, and investments.

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

China Telecom Corporation Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides wireline telephone, data, and Internet, as well as leased line services in China.

Deutsche Telekom AG offers telecommunications services.  The Company offers a full range of fixed-line telephone services, mobile communications services, Internet access, and combined information technology and telecommunications services for businesses.

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.  The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. provides local, domestic, and international long distance services. The Company also offers wireless telecommunication, paging, and Internet services.

Orange SA provides telecommunications services to residential, professional, and large business customers. The Company offers public fixed-line telephone, leased lines and data transmission, mobile telecommunications, cable television, Internet and wireless applications, and broadcasting services, and telecommunications equipment sales and rentals.

Swisscom AG operates public telecommunications networks and offers network application services.  The Company provides local, long-distance, and mobile telephone services, integrated voice and data digital services, network solutions to national and international telecommunications operators, and Internet access services, and owns and operates pay telephones.

BCE Inc., provides a full range of communication services to residential and business customers in Canada.  The Company's services includes local, long distance and wireless phone services, high speed and wireless Internet access, IP-broadband services, value-added business solutions and direct-to-home satellite and VDSL television services.

AT&T Inc. is a communications holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides local and long-distance phone service, wireless and data communications, Internet access and messaging, IP-based and satellite television, security services, telecommunications equipment, and directory advertising and publishing.

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At&T Inc (T US)

Samsung Closed the Gap with TSMC Already at 5nm? Whoa!

Samsung Electronics' desire to catch TSMC starts with how they can proceed with leading tech. Are we almost there already?

Ken S. Kim

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 1/8/2021

This week we highlight eBay's new tool to drive online advertising adoption, Amazon's further foray into logistics, and the $90B spent in the...

Aaron Gabin

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

The TSLA S&P500 inclusion involves $150bn of direct flows and perhaps another $200-300bn indirect flows. It really is a MAMMOTH trade. And index...

Travis Lundy

Facebook and Antitrust - The Beginning of the End for Big-Tech?

NY Attorney General Letitia James filed an anti-trust lawsuit against Facebook Inc A (FB US) which is co-sponsored by Federal Trade Commission and...

Rickin Thakrar

Netflix 3Q20: Still Chill?

We reiterate our view that Netflix will have a hard time making subscriber #s for the next few quarters due to the massive pull-in from 1H20. When...

Aaron Gabin

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