HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Asymchem Laboratories Tianjin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CDMO business usually have higher certainty/profit margin, and would be affected by the deterioration of overseas financing environment much later than CRO business. So, we prefer Asymchem to WuXi AppTec.</li>
<li>Total market size of GLP-1s could exceed the sum of semaglutide + the vast majority of chronic disease drugs.No matter how GLP-1s expand indications, Asymchem has the opportunity to benefit.</li>
<li>Asymchem needs to secure a large order related to GLP-1 drugs. Such big catalyst would certainly boost stock price, just like when COVID-19 order was received in November 2021.</li>
</ul>


CDMO business usually have higher certainty/profit margin, and would be affected by the deterioration of overseas financing environment much later than CRO business. So, we prefer Asymchem to WuXi AppTec.
Total market size of GLP-1s could exceed the sum of semaglutide + the vast majority of chronic disease drugs.No matter how GLP-1s expand indications, Asymchem has the opportunity to benefit.
Asymchem needs to secure a large order related to GLP-1 drugs. Such big catalyst would certainly boost stock price, just like when COVID-19 order was received in November 2021.


Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK/002821.CH) - A Heartening Rise in Share Price Could Be Drawing Near

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.</li>
<li>Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem</li>
<li>Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.
Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem
Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Midea Group Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a>, one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to  US$5bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH), one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to  US$5bn in its H-share listing.
Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Midea A/H Listing - Early Look - Probably Raising Acquisition Currency

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

China

Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co Ltd integrates science, industry and trade into one Group.  The Group engages in producing medications for central nervous system and preparation of raw materials.

Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co., (002262 CH)

Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd. manufactures drug products. The Company develops and sells traditional Chinese medicine, biological medicine, chemical medicine, and other related products. Tasly Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. develops, produces, and sells medicines that are used for the treatment of high blood pressure and cold.  The Company also pr oduces antibiotic drugs and health care products. Kangmei also sells other manufacturers' medical products through its wholesale and retail chain.

Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (600518 CH)

Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co., Ltd specializes in the R&D and sales of pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and chemical products, in addition to the import and export of goods and technology. The company, through its subsidiaries, also operate in real estate development and sales, industrial investment and management, and education projects.

Shijiangzhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co Ltd develops, produces and sells Chinese patent medicine. The Company's major products include Tongxinluo capsules, Shensongyangxin capsules, Lotus Qingwen capsules, Qili Qiangxin capsules and Bazi Bushen capsules.

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603 CH)

China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets a variety of medical products.  The Company's products include anti-influenza,  antihypertensives, and antibiotics.

China Resources Dubl Crne Phrmctl (600062 CH)

Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co., Ltd. develops drug products. The Company manufactures and sells Chinese patent medicine, detection reagent, raw material medicine, chemical preparation, and other products. Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry also produces health care products.

Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Ind Co. (600380 CH)

Zhenxing Biopharmaceutical and Chemical Co., Ltd manufactures and distributes biopharmaceutical and fine chemical products.  The Company also produces wheel forklift trucks and other accessories.

Zhenxing Biopharmaceutical & Chemicl (000403 CH)

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products, including chemical medicines, bio-chemical medicines, biological engineering medicines, chemical compound crude medicines, antibiotics, micro-ecological preparations, patent Chinese medicines, and diagnosis reagents etc.

Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and retails pharmaceutical products and medical raw materials. The Company exports its products to many parts of the world.

Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd. (600521 CH)

Perrigo Company PLC is a global healthcare supplier that develops, manufactures, and distributes OTC and generic prescription pharmaceuticals, infant formulas, nutritional products, active pharmaceutical ingredients and pharmaceutical and medical diagnostic products. The Company's primary markets and locations of manufacturing and logistics operations are the US, UK, Mexico, and Australia.

Bausch Health Companies Inc. discovers and distributes pharmaceutical. The Company develops drugs for unmet medical needs in central nervous system disorders, eye health, and gastrointestinal diseases, as well as contact lenses, intraocular lenses, ophthalmic surgical equipment, and aesthetic devices. Bausch Health Companies serves customers worldwide.

Celltrion Pharm Inc. manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products.  The Company products inclue drugs for for hepatic diseases, digestion, diabetes, cold and fever, anti-inflammatory, and veterinary medical products.  Celltrion also provides pharmaceutical raw materials.

Sam Chun Dang Pharm Co., Ltd. (SCD) develops, manufactures, and markets medicines for human health care.  The Company specializes in producing medical treatment drugs as well as diagnostic drugs.  SCD Pharm's products include antibiotics, respiratory stimulants, pneumonia diagnosis devices, and many others.

J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. manufactures pharmaceuticals, chemicals and agro-based products. The Group's products include metrogyl, rantac (a ranitidine-based formula), and nicardia, a cardiac care medicine. The Company has an agreement with Justesa Imagen, to manufacture and market diagnostics under the "Trazograf" brand name.

J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (JBCP IN)

Corcept Therapeutics Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that discovers and develops drugs for the treatment of severe metabolic and psychiatric disorders. The Company's lead product modulates the effect of cortisol, also known as the "stress hormone", by selectively blocking the binding of cortisol to one of its two known receptors, the GR-II receptor.

SANTEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. produces and sells ophthalmic medicine.  The Company manufactures a variety of products including eye drops and ointments. Santen Pharmaceutical also imports lenses and tools and equipment used by optometrists and produces anti-rheumatic drugs.

Ajanta Pharma Limited is a pharmaceutical company involved in the areas of product research, manufacturing, and marketing. The Company's manufacturing capabilities include segments such as antiretrovirals, antimalarials, cardiovascular, dermatology, and ophthalmology. The Company also markets over the counter products that include some nature-based remedies.

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. manufactures pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces active pharmaceutical ingredients, bulk pharmaceutical chemicals, formulations, herbal nutraceuticals, and veterinary products.

Hanmi Pharm. Company Ltd. produces pharmaceutical products, including antibiotics, vitamins, and intestinal tonics.  The Company also provides beverages and processes soft capsules for other pharmaceutical firms.

Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company researches, produces, and sells organic and inorganic chemicals, medicines, and other related products. Asymchem Laboratories serves customers worldwide.

Asymchem Laboratories Tianjin (002821 CH)

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Asymchem Laboratories Tianjin (002821 CH)

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Innovent's product revenue growth will remain strong in 2024.The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Midea A/H Listing - Early Look - Probably Raising Acquisition Currency

Midea officially filed for an H-share listing yesterday. As per media reports the company is looking to raise up to US$3bn in Hong Kong.

Sumeet Singh

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK/002821.CH) - A Heartening Rise in Share Price Could Be Drawing Near

CDMO has more opportunity than CRO in the wave of GLP-1s. Asymchem has the opportunity to benefit no matter how GLP-1s expand indications. We hope...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Innovent's product revenue growth will remain strong in 2024.The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Midea A/H Listing - Early Look - Probably Raising Acquisition Currency

Midea officially filed for an H-share listing yesterday. As per media reports the company is looking to raise up to US$3bn in Hong Kong.

Sumeet Singh

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas