IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> notes that the Dye &amp; Durham (DND) privatisation scheme remains on track for a June/July completion. Scheme document will be submitted to the ASIC shortly.</li>
<li>Link also noted that it was unable to reach a binding agreement with LC Financial Holding for the sale of the BCM business.</li>
<li>Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. We would be buyers up to A$5.2 per share (implies 70% deal probability). </li>
</ul>



Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) notes that the Dye &amp; Durham (DND) privatisation scheme remains on track for a June/July completion. Scheme document will be submitted to the ASIC shortly.
Link also noted that it was unable to reach a binding agreement with LC Financial Holding for the sale of the BCM business.
Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. We would be buyers up to A$5.2 per share (implies 70% deal probability). 


Link's Privatisation by DND on Track to Complete in June/July

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>’s 1HFY22 results on 24 February stated that the Dye &amp; Durham/DND's privatisation scheme remains on track to complete in June/July. </li>
<li>Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet (in the coming weeks) and an agreement to sell BCM. </li>
<li>We would be buyers up to A$5.2 per share (implies 70% deal probability). The gross and annualised spread for a 31 July implementation is 8.6% and 23.8%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)’s 1HFY22 results on 24 February stated that the Dye &amp; Durham/DND's privatisation scheme remains on track to complete in June/July. 
Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet (in the coming weeks) and an agreement to sell BCM. 
We would be buyers up to A$5.2 per share (implies 70% deal probability). The gross and annualised spread for a 31 July implementation is 8.6% and 23.8%, respectively. 


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HKEX reported a weak set of 4Q21 earnings results of HKD 2.7 bn, declining HKD 577 mn (17.7%) linked quarter, driven by the decline in cash ADT and higher costs; </li>
<li>Derivative activity remained flattish linked quarter with contract volume at 507 thousand – despite the successful launch of the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50); and </li>
<li>With HIBOR set to increase, HKEx is likely to become more reliant on lower quality investment income. </li>
</ul>


HKEX reported a weak set of 4Q21 earnings results of HKD 2.7 bn, declining HKD 577 mn (17.7%) linked quarter, driven by the decline in cash ADT and higher costs; 
Derivative activity remained flattish linked quarter with contract volume at 507 thousand – despite the successful launch of the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50); and 
With HIBOR set to increase, HKEx is likely to become more reliant on lower quality investment income. 


Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Negative Jaws

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will also be the large <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of Ausnet Services (AST AU) and Sydney Airport (SYD AU). 
There will also be the large BHP Group (BHP AU) upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the Afterpay Touch (APT AU) acquisition by Square Inc (SQ US). 
Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.


ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s base (A$5.50 cash per share) + A$0.03 per share interim dividend offer of A$5.53 per share, a 27.7% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (4 November). </li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> last close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>’s offer is worth A$5.51 per share. Carlyle’s long interest in Link suggests that it could improve its offer. </li>
<li>We think that the DND offer is reasonable in the context of historical multiples. Nevertheless, there is a good probability that Carlyle tries to regain the upper hand.</li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s base (A$5.50 cash per share) + A$0.03 per share interim dividend offer of A$5.53 per share, a 27.7% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (4 November). 
At PEXA Group (PXA AU) last close, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)’s offer is worth A$5.51 per share. Carlyle’s long interest in Link suggests that it could improve its offer. 
We think that the DND offer is reasonable in the context of historical multiples. Nevertheless, there is a good probability that Carlyle tries to regain the upper hand.


Australia

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ASX Ltd (ASX AU)

Link's Privatisation by DND on Track to Complete in June/July

Link notes that the Dye & Durham privatisation scheme remains on track for a June/July completion. Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford...

Arun George

Link's Offer Spread Risk/Reward

Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet and an agreement to sell BCM. The annualised...

Arun George

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Negative Jaws

HKEX: HKEX reported a fairly weak set of 4Q21 results, declining 17.7% QOQ, and driven by the overall decline in cash ADT and higher overall costs.

Thomas J. Monaco

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Link Enters a SID with Dye & Durham

DND’s base + interim dividend offer of A$5.53 per share is a 27.7% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33. There is a good chance that Carlyle...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Link's Privatisation by DND on Track to Complete in June/July

Link notes that the Dye & Durham privatisation scheme remains on track for a June/July completion. Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford...

Arun George

Link's Offer Spread Risk/Reward

Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet and an agreement to sell BCM. The annualised...

Arun George

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Negative Jaws

HKEX: HKEX reported a fairly weak set of 4Q21 results, declining 17.7% QOQ, and driven by the overall decline in cash ADT and higher overall costs.

Thomas J. Monaco

ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Link Enters a SID with Dye & Durham

DND’s base + interim dividend offer of A$5.53 per share is a 27.7% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33. There is a good chance that Carlyle...

Arun George

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March