Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Eddingpharm is a China-based pharmaceutical company that has filed an Application Proof to list on the HKEX. The product line consist of older drugs with varying degrees of exposure to the government's VBP/GQCE program. The development pipeline has two intriguing candidates that should come to market in 2022. We think the overarching issue for the shares will be whether enthusiasm for the pipeline can offset the VBP-related overhang. </p>
<p>This Insight addresses the company's products and market opportunity, and leave other topics to a future Insight. Our Bullish tag is a placeholder until we get closer to an offering.</p>

Eddingpharm is a China-based pharmaceutical company that has filed an Application Proof to list on the HKEX. The product line consist of older drugs with varying degrees of exposure to the government's VBP/GQCE program. The development pipeline has two intriguing candidates that should come to market in 2022. We think the overarching issue for the shares will be whether enthusiasm for the pipeline can offset the VBP-related overhang. 
This Insight addresses the company's products and market opportunity, and leave other topics to a future Insight. Our Bullish tag is a placeholder until we get closer to an offering.

<div>
<p>Antengene Corporation, which has filed for an HKEX listing, is a pre-revenue pharmaceutical company focused a combinatory (drug combinations) to treat cancer. The company's pipeline primarily features late-stage, in-licensed products (one approved in the US) supplemented by several internally-developed, pre-clinical compounds. The management team comes from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celgene-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7410:1" rel="noopener">Celgene Corp (CELG US)</a> and other MNCs and has experience developing oncology products. The venture investors are credible; and the patent estate has a long life.</p>
</div>
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<p>This Insight provides an overview of the business, including some initial thoughts on valuation (US$1-1.5 billion), and a list of questions for management. We will provide an update in a future Insight.</p>
</div>


Antengene Corporation, which has filed for an HKEX listing, is a pre-revenue pharmaceutical company focused a combinatory (drug combinations) to treat cancer. The company's pipeline primarily features late-stage, in-licensed products (one approved in the US) supplemented by several internally-developed, pre-clinical compounds. The management team comes from Celgene Corp (CELG US) and other MNCs and has experience developing oncology products. The venture investors are credible; and the patent estate has a long life.


This Insight provides an overview of the business, including some initial thoughts on valuation (US$1-1.5 billion), and a list of questions for management. We will provide an update in a future Insight.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>1. Industry viewpoints: </strong></p><ul>
<li>China’s new intensive procurement policy has finally been applied to high-value medical consumables. Thus, related medical device companies are facing new challenges.</li>
<li>
<span>With the increase of patients' affordability and doctors' cognition and acceptance of minimally invasive surgery, it is expected that MISIA market will have greater growth potential in the near future.</span><span> </span>
</li>
<li><span>In recent years, China cancer drug market has grown rapidly. With large growth potential in this market and more favorable policy, more innovative cancer drugs will be approved in China</span></li>
</ul><p><strong>2. Company news</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">News of Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Dingdang Kuaiyao and AstraZeneca China on the cooperation of new drugs and the progress of new funding.</p><p><strong>3. Market review</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 6.24%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.53% over the same period of time.</p>

1. Industry viewpoints: 
China’s new intensive procurement policy has finally been applied to high-value medical consumables. Thus, related medical device companies are facing new challenges.

With the increase of patients' affordability and doctors' cognition and acceptance of minimally invasive surgery, it is expected that MISIA market will have greater growth potential in the near future. 

In recent years, China cancer drug market has grown rapidly. With large growth potential in this market and more favorable policy, more innovative cancer drugs will be approved in China
2. Company newsNews of Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Dingdang Kuaiyao and AstraZeneca China on the cooperation of new drugs and the progress of new funding.3. Market reviewLast week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 6.24%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.53% over the same period of time.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/834/original/2020-08-02_06-39-22.png?1596317982" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149834"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CORRECTION</strong> - The last day of July saw the TOPIX index fall by 2.8% to reach a new two-month low, 8.2% below the closing high of June 8th. A combination of a strong yen, peak COVID-19 cases, the continuing unedifying stream of results &amp; revisions, and month-end portfolio 'adjustments' proved toxic. Our Results Score lost a further 57 basis points, while bullish initial full-year forecasts from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso (6902 JP)</a> helped the Forecast/Revision Score recover by 51 basis points. Nevertheless, the market's correlation with earnings and revisions momentum remains distorted by central bank liquidity. As noted in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-tired" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41562" rel="noopener"> Tired</a>, we expect both our Scores to bottom nearer the 2009 lows, in which case the Bank of Japan's cumulative purchases could reach over 10% of market value.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/839/original/2020-08-02_07-35-10.png?1596321328" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149839"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>DOWNFALL</strong> - After one-third of quarterly earnings announcements, at the current pace forward aggregate operating and net income could reach ¥35 trillion and ¥20 trillion, respectively by the end of the month, taking the market multiple to 30x, absent any further correction in share prices. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/840/original/2020-08-02_07-52-16.png?1596322358" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149840"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR SCORES</strong> - As in past cycles, the <strong>Information Technology</strong>,<strong> Internet</strong>, and<strong> Healthcare</strong> Sectors have proved to be the most resilient. On the downside, the breadth of the lowest-scoring Sectors is abnormal, with <strong>Consumer Services</strong> and <strong>Transport &amp; Logistics</strong> joining <strong>Metals</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Eletcial Equipment</strong> and<strong> Machinery</strong>. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) results in the table below confirm the chart above but suggests some caution over <strong>Internet</strong> Sector margins.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/842/original/2020-08-02_07-59-45.png?1596322803" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149842"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 31st JULY •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>BEST &amp; WORST</strong> - Combining the day's results, revisions and forecasts, we select the 'best' and the 'worst' announcements according to our scoring. On the podium were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom (4348 JP)</a>. In the pits were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1" rel="noopener">Casio Computer (6952 JP)</a> and three railway lines - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/odakyu-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5405:1" rel="noopener">Odakyu (9007 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12077:1" rel="noopener">West Japan (9021 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13520:1" rel="noopener">Central Japan (9022 JP)</a> for which we will show the Peer Group's record-low long-term Scores.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/913/original/2020-08-02_08-30-42.png?1596324654" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149913"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/914/original/2020-08-02_08-31-29.png?1596324699" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149914"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/915/original/2020-08-02_08-33-28.png?1596324818" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149915"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/916/original/2020-08-02_08-40-22.png?1596325251" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149916"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> - <strong>66%</strong> of quarterly results,  <strong>71%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and <strong>75%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and <strong>26%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>429 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 28% Positive / 6% Neutral / 66% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.1 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.3% Quarter YoY / -2.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 26%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>153 Annual • 115 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 26% Positive / 3% Neutral / 71% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change</strong>: 24% Positive / 1% Neutral / 75% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -8.4 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCORRECTION - The last day of July saw the TOPIX index fall by 2.8% to reach a new two-month low, 8.2% below the closing high of June 8th. A combination of a strong yen, peak COVID-19 cases, the continuing unedifying stream of results &amp; revisions, and month-end portfolio 'adjustments' proved toxic. Our Results Score lost a further 57 basis points, while bullish initial full-year forecasts from Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Denso (6902 JP) helped the Forecast/Revision Score recover by 51 basis points. Nevertheless, the market's correlation with earnings and revisions momentum remains distorted by central bank liquidity. As noted in Tired, we expect both our Scores to bottom nearer the 2009 lows, in which case the Bank of Japan's cumulative purchases could reach over 10% of market value.Source • Japan AnalyticsDOWNFALL - After one-third of quarterly earnings announcements, at the current pace forward aggregate operating and net income could reach ¥35 trillion and ¥20 trillion, respectively by the end of the month, taking the market multiple to 30x, absent any further correction in share prices. Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORES - As in past cycles, the Information Technology, Internet, and Healthcare Sectors have proved to be the most resilient. On the downside, the breadth of the lowest-scoring Sectors is abnormal, with Consumer Services and Transport &amp; Logistics joining Metals, Autos, Eletcial Equipment and Machinery. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) results in the table below confirm the chart above but suggests some caution over Internet Sector margins.   Source • Japan Analytics•BEST &amp; WORST 31st JULY •BEST &amp; WORST - Combining the day's results, revisions and forecasts, we select the 'best' and the 'worst' announcements according to our scoring. On the podium were Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Infocom (4348 JP). In the pits were Casio Computer (6952 JP) and three railway lines - Odakyu (9007 JP), West Japan (9021 JP) and Central Japan (9022 JP) for which we will show the Peer Group's record-low long-term Scores.Source • Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
PERCENTAGES - 66% of quarterly results,  71% of annual forecasts/revisions and 75% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 26% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.
429 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 28% Positive / 6% Neutral / 66% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.1 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.3% Quarter YoY / -2.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 26%
 153 Annual • 115 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 26% Positive / 3% Neutral / 71% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 24% Positive / 1% Neutral / 75% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -8.4 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 31st July - Takeda, Yamato/SG, Seria, FP, Keyence, Dai-Ichi Sankyo

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The management has confirmed that the wholesale price for ginger (a key ingredient and natural immunity booster is well known in Indonesia) is much more manageable compared to the retail price that has gone through the roof as demand surges. </p>
<p>With a lasting COVID-19 pandemic in the country,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sd-mncl-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> is the beneficiary of the increased demand for an immunity booster therefore if there will be an increase in the raw material cost, the revenue growth could negate that and translate into some earnings growth. </p>
<p>SIDO has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> post initial COVID-19 event, and while it may seem that the Index is cheaper relative to SIDO, the index constituents have to deal with the economic reality post-COVID-19 while SIDO is a <strong>beneficiary</strong>. </p>

The management has confirmed that the wholesale price for ginger (a key ingredient and natural immunity booster is well known in Indonesia) is much more manageable compared to the retail price that has gone through the roof as demand surges. 
With a lasting COVID-19 pandemic in the country,  Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) is the beneficiary of the increased demand for an immunity booster therefore if there will be an increase in the raw material cost, the revenue growth could negate that and translate into some earnings growth. 
SIDO has outperformed Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) post initial COVID-19 event, and while it may seem that the Index is cheaper relative to SIDO, the index constituents have to deal with the economic reality post-COVID-19 while SIDO is a beneficiary. 

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas: Gastrointestinal, Oncology, Cardiovascular, Respiratory, Central Nervous System, Pain Control, Anaesthesia, and Infection.

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Astrazeneca Plc Spons Adr (AZN US)

Eddingpharm: First Impressions

Eddingpharm plans to list on the HKEX. This Insight analyzes the company's products and pipeline. The main question is whether enthusiasm for the...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Antengene: Gunning To Move Up in Line

This Insight provides an in-depth review of pre-revenue biotechnology Antegene that plans to list on the HKEX. We discuss the pipeline, market...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.23)

This article summarized important new China healthcare policy released last week, major industry viewpoints, company news and market review for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 31st July - Takeda, Yamato/SG, Seria, FP, Keyence, Dai-Ichi Sankyo

CORRECTION - The last day of July saw the TOPIX index fall by 2.8% to reach a new two-month low, 8.2% below the closing high of June 8th. A...

Campbell Gunn

Sido Muncul (SIDO): Immunity Booster

The management has confirmed that the wholesale price for ginger (a key ingredient and natural immunity booster is well known in Indonesia) is much...

Henry Soediarko

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