Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a>'s cash cow Growject, recombinant human growth hormone, is reporting decelerating revenue due to insurance price revision. The drug is also facing competition.  </li>
<li>JCR’s latest marketed product Izcargo is on a strong growth trajectory. However, the drug is not big enough to compensate for the revenue loss from Growject.  </li>
<li>The company’s bottom-line is under pressure due to elevated R&amp;D expenses. Cash position has also deteriorated. No near-term product launch is anticipated.  </li>
</ul>



Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)'s cash cow Growject, recombinant human growth hormone, is reporting decelerating revenue due to insurance price revision. The drug is also facing competition.  
JCR’s latest marketed product Izcargo is on a strong growth trajectory. However, the drug is not big enough to compensate for the revenue loss from Growject.  
The company’s bottom-line is under pressure due to elevated R&amp;D expenses. Cash position has also deteriorated. No near-term product launch is anticipated.  


Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP): Mainstay Drug Revenue Declining; High R&D Cost Worsens Profitability

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuhan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10745:1" rel="noopener">Yuhan Corp (000100 KS)</a> has launched in-house developed drug Lazertinib in the domestic under the brand name Leclaza in July 2021 as a second-line treatment for NSCLC in Korea.</li>
<li>Going forward, Yuhan aims to place Leclaza as the first-line treatment for NSCLC patients. Leclaza is in late-stage global trial for global approval as a combined or monotherapy for NSCLC.</li>
<li>In September, Yuhan has acquired a 60% stake in microbiome developer AtoGen for KRW 10B. This acquisition will enable Yuhan to strengthen its probiotics business and development of microbiome treatments.</li>
</ul>



Yuhan Corp (000100 KS) has launched in-house developed drug Lazertinib in the domestic under the brand name Leclaza in July 2021 as a second-line treatment for NSCLC in Korea.
Going forward, Yuhan aims to place Leclaza as the first-line treatment for NSCLC patients. Leclaza is in late-stage global trial for global approval as a combined or monotherapy for NSCLC.
In September, Yuhan has acquired a 60% stake in microbiome developer AtoGen for KRW 10B. This acquisition will enable Yuhan to strengthen its probiotics business and development of microbiome treatments.


Yuhan Corp (000100 KS): Progress of Anti-Cancer Drug Leclaza Is the Main Growth Engine

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices</li>
<li>The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   </li>
<li>We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices
The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   
We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.


A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Boryung Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boryung-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19265:1" rel="noopener">Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS)</a> is expanding its oncology portfolio mainly through in-licensing and co-promotion agreement and aims to achieve revenue of KRW217 billion from oncology segment in 2026.</li>
<li>This month, Boryung received approval for in-licensed drug Zepzelca (lurbinectedin), indicated for the treatment of small-cell lung cancer in Korea. The drug has demonstrated high adoption rate in the U.S.</li>
<li>This year, Boryung launched two in-licensed neutropenia drugs and one generic drug for breast cancer. The company plans to launch 18 oncology drugs during 2022–2026, including 10 first generics.</li>
</ul>



Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS) is expanding its oncology portfolio mainly through in-licensing and co-promotion agreement and aims to achieve revenue of KRW217 billion from oncology segment in 2026.
This month, Boryung received approval for in-licensed drug Zepzelca (lurbinectedin), indicated for the treatment of small-cell lung cancer in Korea. The drug has demonstrated high adoption rate in the U.S.
This year, Boryung launched two in-licensed neutropenia drugs and one generic drug for breast cancer. The company plans to launch 18 oncology drugs during 2022–2026, including 10 first generics.


Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Oncology Portfolio Expansion to Accelerate Growth Momentum

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas, including gastrointestinal, oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, central nervous system, pain control, anaesthesia, and infection.

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AstraZeneca (AZN SS)

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP): Mainstay Drug Revenue Declining; High R&D Cost Worsens Profitability

Revenue from JCR’s flagship drug Growject declined 7% to ¥9.3B during 9MFY23, due to the negative impact of insurance price. As R&D cost is...

Tina Banerjee

Yuhan Corp (000100 KS): Progress of Anti-Cancer Drug Leclaza Is the Main Growth Engine

In last July, Yuhan launched Leclaza in Korea for the treatment of lung cancer. Leclaza has become the first anti-cancer drug in Korea to surpass...

Tina Banerjee

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Oncology Portfolio Expansion to Accelerate Growth Momentum

Boryung is expanding oncology portfolio and got approval for in-licensed drug, Zepzelca in Korea. During 2022–2026, oncology segment is expected to...

Tina Banerjee

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