ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> booked a solid set of 9M2024 results, despite softness in the auto market, where it gained market share, facing off new competitors with its hybrid offerings.</li>
<li>The decline in net income from autos was offset by all other segments, with financing being the largest offset but heavy equipment also saw strong performance from contracting and gold. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> sees a more positive outlook for autos, both 2W and 4W in 2025, despite new EV entrants and will continue to invest in growth areas. High conviction Buy.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) booked a solid set of 9M2024 results, despite softness in the auto market, where it gained market share, facing off new competitors with its hybrid offerings.
The decline in net income from autos was offset by all other segments, with financing being the largest offset but heavy equipment also saw strong performance from contracting and gold. 

Astra International sees a more positive outlook for autos, both 2W and 4W in 2025, despite new EV entrants and will continue to invest in growth areas. High conviction Buy.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - HEVs, Finance, Healthcare, and Gold

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> is well-positioned to fend off the challenge of incoming EV players to Indonesia, a country far more suited to Hybrid EVs, with little charging infrastructure.</li>
<li>Despite new entrants, the company has maintained its market share at 57% YTD, with Chinese EV makers fighting amongst themselves and other Japanese ICE brands losing some share. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> continues to develop new HEV products, with a line up of 10 BEVs due by 2028 from Toyota but investments in the ecosystem are already underway. Valuations remain attractive.</li>
</ul>



Astra International is well-positioned to fend off the challenge of incoming EV players to Indonesia, a country far more suited to Hybrid EVs, with little charging infrastructure.
Despite new entrants, the company has maintained its market share at 57% YTD, with Chinese EV makers fighting amongst themselves and other Japanese ICE brands losing some share. 

Astra continues to develop new HEV products, with a line up of 10 BEVs due by 2028 from Toyota but investments in the ecosystem are already underway. Valuations remain attractive.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Digging in Against the BEV Threat

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> saw a slight decline in its core earnings in 1H2024, which was an admirable performance given the weakness in the auto market and commodities divisions.</li>
<li>Offsetting the weakness in autos, Astra saw strong performances from its financing businesses for 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, and consumer finance, which booked +8% YoY growth in 1H2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> remains a key proxy for the overall Indonesian economy, with the diversity of its earnings exposure underpinning its resilience. Valuations are attractive, supported by a 9% FY2024E dividend yield. </li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) saw a slight decline in its core earnings in 1H2024, which was an admirable performance given the weakness in the auto market and commodities divisions.
Offsetting the weakness in autos, Astra saw strong performances from its financing businesses for 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, and consumer finance, which booked +8% YoY growth in 1H2024. 

Astra remains a key proxy for the overall Indonesian economy, with the diversity of its earnings exposure underpinning its resilience. Valuations are attractive, supported by a 9% FY2024E dividend yield. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Strength in Diversity

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is coming up cheap after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) is coming up cheap after United Tractors (UNTR IJ) positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. 
Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)