ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> saw a slight decline in its core earnings in 1H2024, which was an admirable performance given the weakness in the auto market and commodities divisions.</li>
<li>Offsetting the weakness in autos, Astra saw strong performances from its financing businesses for 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, and consumer finance, which booked +8% YoY growth in 1H2024. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> remains a key proxy for the overall Indonesian economy, with the diversity of its earnings exposure underpinning its resilience. Valuations are attractive, supported by a 9% FY2024E dividend yield. </li>
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Astra International (ASII IJ) saw a slight decline in its core earnings in 1H2024, which was an admirable performance given the weakness in the auto market and commodities divisions.
Offsetting the weakness in autos, Astra saw strong performances from its financing businesses for 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, and consumer finance, which booked +8% YoY growth in 1H2024. 

Astra remains a key proxy for the overall Indonesian economy, with the diversity of its earnings exposure underpinning its resilience. Valuations are attractive, supported by a 9% FY2024E dividend yield. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Strength in Diversity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>ASII 1H24/2Q24 NP fell -9%/-4% yoy, but still accounted for 53%/53% of our and consensus estimate, higher than historical seasonality.</li><li>ASII Jul24 sales improved +7% mom, implying 7M24 growth of -15% yoy (vs 6M24 -17% yoy); mgmt. aims to introduce new 4W models.</li><li>We raise our FY24/25F auto and UNTR EBIT by 6%-7%/2%-6%. Reiterate our BUY rating with 4% higher TP of Rp 5,300.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII 1H24/2Q24 NP fell -9%/-4% yoy, but still accounted for 53%/53% of our and consensus estimate, higher than historical seasonality.ASII Jul24 sales improved +7% mom, implying 7M24 growth of -15% yoy (vs 6M24 -17% yoy); mgmt. aims to introduce new 4W models.We raise our FY24/25F auto and UNTR EBIT by 6%-7%/2%-6%. Reiterate our BUY rating with 4% higher TP of Rp 5,300.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Upgrading Est. And TP on Better 4W Market Share

<ul><li>Our visit to GIIAS 2024 revealed aggressive Chinese 4W product launches with many choices in multiple price range.</li><li>We observed decent traffic at the Toyota booth, with Innova Zenix and Hilux Rangga attracting the most interest.</li><li>BYD’s new M6 MPV garnered attention, though we think it is still not comparable to Innova. Retain Buy rating and TP of Rp 5,100 on ASII.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our visit to GIIAS 2024 revealed aggressive Chinese 4W product launches with many choices in multiple price range.We observed decent traffic at the Toyota booth, with Innova Zenix and Hilux Rangga attracting the most interest.BYD’s new M6 MPV garnered attention, though we think it is still not comparable to Innova. Retain Buy rating and TP of Rp 5,100 on ASII.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Intensifying Competition Amid Chinese Producers Product Launches

<ul><li>We expect ASII’s 1H24 auto revenue/OP to decline by -13%/-45%, and financial segment revenue/OP to expand by 12%/18% yoy.</li><li>We expect HE’s 2Q24 earnings to improve +25% qoq, driving a potential beat for ASII’s 1H24 consolidated earnings.</li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of Rp 5,100; 2H24E 4W sales will be a critical driver for ASII’s 2H24 earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect ASII’s 1H24 auto revenue/OP to decline by -13%/-45%, and financial segment revenue/OP to expand by 12%/18% yoy.We expect HE’s 2Q24 earnings to improve +25% qoq, driving a potential beat for ASII’s 1H24 consolidated earnings.We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of Rp 5,100; 2H24E 4W sales will be a critical driver for ASII’s 2H24 earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Possible Earnings Beat, Driven by Strong Financials and Qoq HE Improvement

<ul><li>Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).</li><li>In FY23, used 4W sales to total 4W sales reached 58%, vs the 2015- 2019 avg of 42%, as 4W ASP increases exceeded incomes.</li><li>New model releases should help to support new 4W sales. Reiterate Buy rating on ASII with a TP of Rp 5,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).In FY23, used 4W sales to total 4W sales reached 58%, vs the 2015- 2019 avg of 42%, as 4W ASP increases exceeded incomes.New model releases should help to support new 4W sales. Reiterate Buy rating on ASII with a TP of Rp 5,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Challenges from Used 4W, but Expect 2H24F Sales to Improve from 1H24

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ) - Strength in Diversity

Astra remains a key proxy for the overall Indonesian economy, The diversity of its earnings exposure underpins its resilience. Valuations are...

Angus Mackintosh

Astra International - Upgrading Est. And TP on Better 4W Market Share

ASII 1H24/2Q24 NP fell -9%/-4% yoy, but still accounted for 53%/53% of our and consensus estimate, higher than historical seasonality.

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - Intensifying Competition Amid Chinese Producers Product Launches

BYD’s new M6 MPV garnered attention, though we think it is still not comparable to Innova. Retain Buy rating and TP of Rp 5,100 on ASII.

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - Possible Earnings Beat, Driven by Strong Financials and Qoq HE Improvement

We expect ASII’s 1H24 auto revenue/OP to decline by -13%/-45%, and financial segment revenue/OP to expand by 12%/18% yoy.

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - Challenges from Used 4W, but Expect 2H24F Sales to Improve from 1H24

Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).

BRI Danareksa Research