Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like "the wrong price" over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.  </li>
<li>Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS)</a>, are big beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Historically, the "event" which helps Murakami-san get out - with respect to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arclands-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10395:1" rel="noopener">Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcland-service-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2392:1" rel="noopener">Arcland Service (3085 JP)</a> - is not one which is suitable for "normal" investors. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like "the wrong price" over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.  
Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS), are big beneficiaries.
Historically, the "event" which helps Murakami-san get out - with respect to Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)/Arcland Service (3085 JP) - is not one which is suitable for "normal" investors. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Japanese drug maker Astellas Pharma announced on Monday that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of opthalmalogy player Iveric Bio for a total consideration of U$5.9bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> will pay US$40 per share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iveric-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15201:1" rel="noopener">IVERIC bio (ISEE US)</a> , 64% premium to the unaffected closing price of US$24.33 per share as of 31st March 2023.</li>
<li>As Astellas’ blockbuster drug XTANDI’s exclusivity is nearing expiry, we think Iveric’s key drug asset ACP should offer some protection over loss of XTANDI’s revenues in the future.</li>
</ul>


Japanese drug maker Astellas Pharma announced on Monday that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of opthalmalogy player Iveric Bio for a total consideration of U$5.9bn.

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) will pay US$40 per share of IVERIC bio (ISEE US) , 64% premium to the unaffected closing price of US$24.33 per share as of 31st March 2023.
As Astellas’ blockbuster drug XTANDI’s exclusivity is nearing expiry, we think Iveric’s key drug asset ACP should offer some protection over loss of XTANDI’s revenues in the future.


Astellas Pharma Buys Iveric Bio: Help Offset Upcoming Patent Expiry of XTANDI

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> is acquiring the U.S.-based clinical stage biopharmaceutical company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iveric-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15201:1" rel="noopener">IVERIC bio (ISEE US)</a> for ~$5.9B. Iveric Bio focuses on the discovery and development of novel ophthalmology treatments.</li>
<li>Iveric’s lead drug candidate Avacincaptad Pegol for the potential treatment of Geographic Atrophy is under FDA review with PDUFA action date of August 19, 2023.</li>
<li>The acquisition will be funded by a combination of bank loan, issuance of commercial paper totaling ~¥800B, and internal cash. The acquisition is expected to complete by 3Q23 (July–September).</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) is acquiring the U.S.-based clinical stage biopharmaceutical company IVERIC bio (ISEE US) for ~$5.9B. Iveric Bio focuses on the discovery and development of novel ophthalmology treatments.
Iveric’s lead drug candidate Avacincaptad Pegol for the potential treatment of Geographic Atrophy is under FDA review with PDUFA action date of August 19, 2023.
The acquisition will be funded by a combination of bank loan, issuance of commercial paper totaling ~¥800B, and internal cash. The acquisition is expected to complete by 3Q23 (July–September).


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): New Acquisition to Add Promising Drug Candidate in New Therapeutic Area

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> recorded 17% growth in revenue to ¥1,519B in FY23, driven by 24% growth of Xtandi. Core operating profit grew 17% and core net profit increased 18%.</li>
<li>The company has guided for flat revenue and core operating profit for FY24, mainly due to negative impact of Fx.  </li>
<li>Astellas expects to obtain FDA approval for fezolinetant for vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause in May 2023. The company will file for marketing approval for zolbetuximab in Q1FY24.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) recorded 17% growth in revenue to ¥1,519B in FY23, driven by 24% growth of Xtandi. Core operating profit grew 17% and core net profit increased 18%.
The company has guided for flat revenue and core operating profit for FY24, mainly due to negative impact of Fx.  
Astellas expects to obtain FDA approval for fezolinetant for vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause in May 2023. The company will file for marketing approval for zolbetuximab in Q1FY24.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): FY23 Result and FY24 Guidance Meet Expectation; New Drugs Hold Key

Travis Lundy

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Japan

Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd is a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures, sells, imports and exports pharmaceuticals, clinical testing, and medical equipment for intractable diseases.

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals. The Company's products include a protein produced by genetic recombination technology, an anti-anemia agent that attaches new sugar chains through partial modification of the amino acid sequence of human erythropoietin (EPO), and a glycoprotein, human erythropoietin.

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

Eisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment and sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries.  Through its subsidiary, Sanko Junyaku, the Company produces and sells diagnostic drugs.  Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.  The Company also manufactures and sells foods, livestock feeds, chemical, and agrochemicals.

ONO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company mainly researches and develops prescription drugs.

ROHTO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals and cosmetics products.  The Company's products include eyewash, bath soaps, gastrointestinal medicine, and hand cream.  Rohto Pharmaceutical also has a license agreement with its subsidiary, Mentholatum (US) to sell their brand products.  The Company also manufactures contact lenses and health foods.

SANTEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. produces and sells ophthalmic medicine.  The Company manufactures a variety of products including eye drops and ointments. Santen Pharmaceutical also imports lenses and tools and equipment used by optometrists and produces anti-rheumatic drugs.

Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical and health foods products. The Company produces drugs for urinary, nerve, respiratory, and circulatory systems as well as analgesic and anti-inflammatory drugs.  Nippon Shinyaku also develops synthetic anti-bacterial agents.

TSUMURA & CO. manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products including Chinese medicines.  The Company also manufactures and sells bathing products, cosmetics, and other healthcare and toiletry products.  Tsumura & Co. sells its products in Japan and overseas markets.

HISAMITSU PHARMACEUTICAL CO., INC. produces and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company's main product is anti-inflammatory analgesic plasters and poultices sold under the brand name Salonpas.  Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical exports its products to North America and Southeast Asia.  The Company also researches and develops antibacterial products through its related company, RRF.

Catalent, Inc. provides delivery technologies and development solutions for drugs, biologics and consumer health products. The Company's oral, injectable, and respiratory delivery technologies address the diversity of the pharmaceutical industry including small molecules, large molecule biologics and consumer health products.

Cipla Limited manufactures and sells pharmaceutical and personal care products. The Company offers active pharmaceutical ingredients, and formulations in therapeutic areas, such as allergy, analgesic, anti malarial, anti-infectives, cardiology, dermatology and cosmeceuticals, diabetology, gastroenterology, steroids, iron chelators, nutritional products.

Cadila Healthcare Ltd. manufactures, and markets healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, diagnostics, health and dietetic foods, animal healthcare to cosmeceuticals.  The Company's products are available in tablets, capsules, injections, liquids, dry syrups, powders, granules, and ointments.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets Chinese traditional medicines, including Pientzehuang, Pientzehuang capsules, Pientzehuang lozenge, cough syrup, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. manufactures bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations. The Company's formulations include cardio-vascular, psychotropic and anti-biotic drugs while its bulk drugs include atenolol, ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin. Torrent Pharmaceuticals has wholly owned subsidiaries in several regulated and less regulated international markets.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited provides a complete range of pharmaceutical services. The Company manufactures bulk drugs and formulations including verapamil and cephalexin. The Company also manufactures and exports molecules such as norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and varieties of semi-synthetic penicillin. The Company markets its products in India and around the world.

Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets traditional Chinese medicines.  The Company also operates in pharmaceutical wholesale and retail trading, empty capsules manufacturing, and hotel operation.

Recordati S.p.A. manufactures pharmaceuticals. The Company researches, develops, manufactures, and markets prescription and non-prescription pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical chemicals, therapeutic products, and rare disease treatments. The Company sells its products throughout the world.

Ipsen SA manufactures and markets a wide range of medical drugs for targeted disease areas including oncology, endocrinology, and neuromuscular disorders.

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Astellas Pharma Buys Iveric Bio: Help Offset Upcoming Patent Expiry of XTANDI

Acquisition of Iveric Bio's key drug asset ACP should offer protection against upcoming patent expiry of XTANDI. The whole deal is based on a late...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA