European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.</li>
<li>PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.</li>
<li>The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.
PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.
The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.


<ul>
<li>With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.</li>
<li>Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.</li>
<li>KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.</li>
</ul>


With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.
Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.
KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.


Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

<ul>
<li>Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.</li>
<li>Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.</li>
<li>With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.</li>
</ul>


Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.
Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.
With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.


Managing Director, Golden Section Capital

Garreth Elston

Managing Director

Golden Section Equity Research

Golden Section Capital

Golden Section Capital is a private international investment, specialist independent equity research, and corporate finance consulting services provider focussing on real estate and infrastructure. 

Paid for corporate research on Real Estate and Infrastructure companies. Plus independent pieces on various real estate companies and themes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.</li>
<li>Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.</li>
<li>Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.</li>
</ul>


February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.
Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.
Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.


South African Listed Property Review February 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>. Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a> rolls over as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">Costar Group (CSGP US)</a> bets big on key rival Domain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a>'s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.</li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date

REA Group Ltd (REA AU) rolls over as Costar Group (CSGP US) bets big on key rival Domain Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).

Macromill (3978 JP)'s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

United Kingdom

Assura PLC is a primary healthcare property group. The Company is a long-term investor and developer of primary care property. Assura works with general practitioners, health professionals and National Health Services to deliver patient care. The properties are leased to General practitioner practices and Primary Care Trusts.

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Assura PLC (AGR LN)

Assura in the Crosshairs

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Assura: Possible Sweetened Offer

KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

South African Listed Property Review February 2025

SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...

Golden Section Capital

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Assura in the Crosshairs

​KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

​Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Assura: Possible Sweetened Offer

​KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

South African Listed Property Review February 2025

​SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...

Golden Section Capital

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...

SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...