New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Asset Plus (APL) reported a slight loss for 1H24; but it is largely irrelevant, with the market's focus on the sell down of the final assets in the vehicle and a potential capital return.</li><li>Munroe Lane, APL's last asset not contracted for sale, is now complete but leasing of the 36% vacant space remains challenging.</li><li>With the settlement of Graham St now in November 2024, APL has some time on its side to lease up Munroe Lane to maximise its value on sale. </li></ul>

Asset Plus (APL) reported a slight loss for 1H24; but it is largely irrelevant, with the market's focus on the sell down of the final assets in the vehicle and a potential capital return.Munroe Lane, APL's last asset not contracted for sale, is now complete but leasing of the 36% vacant space remains challenging.With the settlement of Graham St now in November 2024, APL has some time on its side to lease up Munroe Lane to maximise its value on sale. 

Asset Plus - 1H24 Result — Leasing Up to Sell Down

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Following a torrid few months, a fall in long bond rates provided relief for the property sector in November.</li><li>1H24 results were generally uneventful, with the major surprise being Investore (IPL) cutting its dividend ahead of the tax changes next year.</li><li>We expect a few others will follow suit when guidance for FY25 is issued in May. On the positive side, Auckland Council approved the sale of the Downtown Carpark to Precinct (PCT). </li></ul>

Following a torrid few months, a fall in long bond rates provided relief for the property sector in November.1H24 results were generally uneventful, with the major surprise being Investore (IPL) cutting its dividend ahead of the tax changes next year.We expect a few others will follow suit when guidance for FY25 is issued in May. On the positive side, Auckland Council approved the sale of the Downtown Carpark to Precinct (PCT). 

Real Estate Reflections - On the Interest Rate Roller Coaster

<ul><li>It has been a bleak couple of months for the listed property sector.</li><li>The one-two punch of the proposed tax changes and higher for longer interest rates has seen the sector sell off -14% over the last three months.</li><li>This was the fourth largest three month correction since 1996, behind only the Asian debt crisis, the rapid rate hiking cycle in June last year, and the start of the COVID pandemic. </li></ul>

It has been a bleak couple of months for the listed property sector.The one-two punch of the proposed tax changes and higher for longer interest rates has seen the sector sell off -14% over the last three months.This was the fourth largest three month correction since 1996, behind only the Asian debt crisis, the rapid rate hiking cycle in June last year, and the start of the COVID pandemic. 

Real Estate Reflections - The Storm Before the Storm

<ul><li>It hasn't been a great couple of months for the property sector. After being hit with political promises of higher taxes in August, rising interest rates saw the sector sell off in September.</li><li>With the NZ 10 year Government bond yield now c.5.5%, sector valuation metrics, which already looked full versus history, have come sharply back into focus.</li><li>Persistently high interest rates remain a headwind for the sector, particularly given higher taxes and interest costs are likely to see dividends cut (we forecast -3% on average by FY26). </li></ul>

It hasn't been a great couple of months for the property sector. After being hit with political promises of higher taxes in August, rising interest rates saw the sector sell off in September.With the NZ 10 year Government bond yield now c.5.5%, sector valuation metrics, which already looked full versus history, have come sharply back into focus.Persistently high interest rates remain a headwind for the sector, particularly given higher taxes and interest costs are likely to see dividends cut (we forecast -3% on average by FY26). 

Real Estate Reflections - Here We Go Again?

<ul><li>After seven months of outperforming the broader NZ market, the listed property sector experienced a sharp correction in August.</li><li>This was driven by both National and Labour proposing to remove structure depreciation for commercial landlords to part fund their respective election promises.</li><li>Given the depreciations changes are proposed by both major political parties, we have lowered our forecasts to reflect the high likelihood that the sector will be paying more tax from 1 April 2024. </li></ul>

After seven months of outperforming the broader NZ market, the listed property sector experienced a sharp correction in August.This was driven by both National and Labour proposing to remove structure depreciation for commercial landlords to part fund their respective election promises.Given the depreciations changes are proposed by both major political parties, we have lowered our forecasts to reflect the high likelihood that the sector will be paying more tax from 1 April 2024. 

Real Estate Reflections - Tax Man Coming for Commercial

New Zealand

Investore Property Limited operates as a real estate investment company. The Company invests in retail property assets. Investore Property also provides leasing services. Investore Property serves clients in New Zealand.

Stride Stapled Group operates as a real estate investment company. The Company invests in a portfolio of places with enduring demand, as well as acquires retail properties. Stride Stapled conducts business in New Zealand.

Argosy Property Limited invests in and manages retail, commercial and industrial properties in New Zealand.

Property for Industry Limited is a property company that invests in New Zealand industrial properties. The Company's property portfolio includes sites in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch.

Vital Healthcare Property Trust is a property trust that invests in and manages healthcare facilities in New Zealand and Australia.

Kiwi Property Group Ltd is a property trust that invests in, manages and develops a portfolio of diversified properties throughout New Zealand. The Trust's properties include office, retail and industrial properties.

CDL Investments New Zealand Limited operates as a property investment and development company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide land-based investment and development, management and the provision of property services. CDL Investments New Zealand serves clients in New Zealand.

Precinct Properties New Zealand Ltd. invests in manages and leases commercial office properties. The Company invests in properties in Auckland and Wellington.

Goodman Property Trust is a property trust that invests in, manages and develope portfolio of diversified property assets in Auckland. The Trust's portfolio comprises of office, industrial and retail properties.

Centara Hotels & Resorts Leasehold Property Fund is a closed-end fund incorporated in Thailand. The Fund invests in property lease of the five-star Centara Grand Beach Resort Samui Hotel for a period of 30 years.

Land and Houses Freehold and Leasehold Property Fund is a closed-end fund incorporated in Thailand. The Fund's objective is to achieve good returns. The Fund invests in residential units of Land and Houses Group, which are serviced apartment projects Centre Point Sukhumvit Thong-Lo and Centre Point Residence Phromphong, and rental housing project L&H Villa Sathon.

Luxury Real Estate Investment Fund is a closed-end fund incorporated in Thailand. The Fund invests in property lease rights of Six Senses Hide Away Yao Noi project, a hotel and resort which consists of 56 villas and is located at Yao Noi Island, Phang Nga Province of Thailand.

AmanahRaya Real Estate Investment Trust owns a diverse portfolio of real estate properties and real estate related assets, including hotels, factories, colleges, and office properties.

AmFirst Real Estate Investment Trust owns and invests in real estate and real estate related assets.

Strategic Hospitality Freehold and Leasehold REIT operates as a real estate investment trust.

Strategic Hospitality Freehold and Leasehold REIT (SHREIT TB)

Strategic Hospitality Freehold and Leasehold REIT

Hemraj Industrial Property & Leasehold Fund is a closed-end fund which holds rights in factories and Industrial estates at different industrial parks in Thailand.

Hemaraj Industrial Property and Leasehold Fund  (HPF TB)

Hemaraj Industrial Property and Leasehold Fund 

K-TOP Reits Co., Ltd. is a self-managed real estate investment  trust (REIT). The Company purchases and invests in land and buildings.  As part of its business, the Company also develops, sells and manages the investment properties.

CPN Commercial Growth Leasehold Property Fund is a closed-end property fund incorporated in Thailand. The Fund invests in the leasehold rights of The Office @ Central World. The Fund subleases on the land and leases on buildings, utilities, control systems, as well as car parking rights for the same complex.

Tower Real Estate Investment trust is a real estate investment trust. The trust invests primarily in a portfolio of office buildings and commercial properties.

Asset Plus Limited carries on the business of a property company that invests in and manages commercial, industrial and retail properties. The Company's investment property portfolio consists of retail, commercial, and industrial properties located in New Zealand.

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Asset Plus (APL NZ)

Asset Plus - 1H24 Result — Leasing Up to Sell Down

Asset Plus (APL) reported a slight loss for 1H24; but it is largely irrelevant, with the market's focus on the sell down of the final assets in...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - On the Interest Rate Roller Coaster

1H24 results were generally uneventful, with the major surprise being Investore (IPL) cutting its dividend ahead of the tax changes next year.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - The Storm Before the Storm

The one-two punch of the proposed tax changes and higher for longer interest rates has seen the sector sell off -14% over the last three months.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Here We Go Again?

It hasn't been a great couple of months for the property sector. After being hit with political promises of higher taxes in August, rising interest...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Tax Man Coming for Commercial

After seven months of outperforming the broader NZ market, the listed property sector experienced a sharp correction in August.

Forsyth Barr

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