Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a 50% fall in the share price, Lasertec looks cheap on an historical basis and trades at a discount to ASML  </li>
<li>The secular growth outlook for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) inspection systems is brighter than ever  </li>
<li>Lasertec should be a core holding for Japan growth funds on expectations for continued earnings growth and high returns on equity </li>
</ul>


After a 50% fall in the share price, Lasertec looks cheap on an historical basis and trades at a discount to ASML  
The secular growth outlook for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) inspection systems is brighter than ever  
Lasertec should be a core holding for Japan growth funds on expectations for continued earnings growth and high returns on equity 


Lasertec (6920) | A Monopoly with a Long Runway

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>SMIC reported revenue/GM were US$1,869/40% for revenue/GM in 1Q22 respectively. The revenue matched to our expectation, but the GM was exceeding ~8% versus guidance.</li>
<li>The outlook is a little bit lower than our expectation for revenue/GM to be US$1860-1,897/37-39% in 2Q22 guidance.</li>
<li>The overall demand situation is growing up although inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, and other factors may affect. </li>
</ul>


SMIC reported revenue/GM were US$1,869/40% for revenue/GM in 1Q22 respectively. The revenue matched to our expectation, but the GM was exceeding ~8% versus guidance.
The outlook is a little bit lower than our expectation for revenue/GM to be US$1860-1,897/37-39% in 2Q22 guidance.
The overall demand situation is growing up although inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, and other factors may affect. 


SMIC (981.HK): The Overall Demand Situation Is Growing Up in 2022.

<ul>
<li>
We think SMIC is likely to reach the high-end of 1Q22 guidance, which was US$1,817~1,849mn/36~38% respectively.
</li>
<li>
We think SMIC is likely to reach ~US$1,926mn/39% for revenue/GM respectively in 2Q22.
</li>
<li>SMIC cannot have the EUV machine because of the Wassenaar Arrangement. Therefore, SMIC has to optimize its operation and to expand 28nm and above technologies.</li>
</ul>



We think SMIC is likely to reach the high-end of 1Q22 guidance, which was US$1,817~1,849mn/36~38% respectively.


We think SMIC is likely to reach ~US$1,926mn/39% for revenue/GM respectively in 2Q22.

SMIC cannot have the EUV machine because of the Wassenaar Arrangement. Therefore, SMIC has to optimize its operation and to expand 28nm and above technologies.


SMIC (981.HK): 2Q22 Preview- We Estimate Around 5% Growth Could Be the Case

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.</li>
<li>It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.</li>
<li>There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.
It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.
There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Lasertec (6920) | A Monopoly with a Long Runway

After a 50% fall in the share price, Lasertec looks cheap on an historical basis and trades at a discount to ASML. Lasertec should be a core...

Mark Chadwick

SMIC (981.HK): The Overall Demand Situation Is Growing Up in 2022.

The outlook is a little bit lower than our expectation for revenue/GM to be US$1860-1,897/37-39% in 2Q22 guidance, but the overall demand situation...

Patrick Liao

SMIC (981.HK): 2Q22 Preview- We Estimate Around 5% Growth Could Be the Case

We thick SMIC is likely to reach ~US$6,680mn/39% for revenue/GM respectively in 2Q22. SMIC cannot but to optimize its operation and to expand 28nm...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TSMC will raise wafer price about 6% for all product lines since the beginning of 2023. It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be...

Patrick Liao

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