Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. </li>
<li>The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.</li>
<li>The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.</li>
</ul>


Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. 
The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.
The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>We were too early to turn bearish on Asics. Recent stock price performance has been strong</li>
<li>Although rising inventories have yet to impact on margins, they are a potential red flag</li>
<li>The stock is not cheap at 29x PE. The long-term financial model suggests limited upside from here</li>
</ul>


We were too early to turn bearish on Asics. Recent stock price performance has been strong
Although rising inventories have yet to impact on margins, they are a potential red flag
The stock is not cheap at 29x PE. The long-term financial model suggests limited upside from here


Asics (7936) | It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After a bullish week for Japanese equities last week, this week was a bit blah. The average return for our watchlist was -0.3%, with 57 of 120 registering a gain</li>
<li>Over the past one month, the yen has gained 10-big figures against the dollar and the NKY has gained 3%</li>
<li>Japanese inflation at 40-year high; Kishida meets Xi; Visitors to Japan tops 500k in October; &amp; corporate tax may be hiked to fund defense spending</li>
</ul>


After a bullish week for Japanese equities last week, this week was a bit blah. The average return for our watchlist was -0.3%, with 57 of 120 registering a gain
Over the past one month, the yen has gained 10-big figures against the dollar and the NKY has gained 3%
Japanese inflation at 40-year high; Kishida meets Xi; Visitors to Japan tops 500k in October; &amp; corporate tax may be hiked to fund defense spending


<ul>
<li>NIKE reported Q1 results post close on Thursday sending the shares down 9% after hours and hitting the stock price of Asics on Friday (-10.7%).  </li>
<li>ASICS is unlikely to face ALL of the same problems that impacted NIKE, but investors should be aware of the rising inventory risk</li>
<li>ASICS is less risky given less exposure to apparel. Even so, we remain bearish for now</li>
</ul>


NIKE reported Q1 results post close on Thursday sending the shares down 9% after hours and hitting the stock price of Asics on Friday (-10.7%).  
ASICS is unlikely to face ALL of the same problems that impacted NIKE, but investors should be aware of the rising inventory risk
ASICS is less risky given less exposure to apparel. Even so, we remain bearish for now


<ul>
<li>The stock price has rallied 40% since our last note. We are happy to take profit here, hence we label this insight as Bearish </li>
<li>The results and full year guidance hike were positive but largely currency assisted  </li>
<li>We expect that a focus on China and Direct will drive margin expansion in the medium term</li>
</ul>


The stock price has rallied 40% since our last note. We are happy to take profit here, hence we label this insight as Bearish 
The results and full year guidance hike were positive but largely currency assisted  
We expect that a focus on China and Direct will drive margin expansion in the medium term


Asics (7936) | Strong Performance Meets Reasonable Valuation

Japan

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

DESCENTE, LTD. manufactures athletic clothing including golf wear and ski wear. The Company also manufactures tennis shoes, skies, and sports bags.

SEIKO HOLDINGS CORPORATION (Hattori Seiko) designs, manufactures, and sells electronic devices, watches and clocks in Japan and overseas. The Company also sells jewelry, ophthalmic lenses, golf clubs and computer peripherals.

WACOAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION manufactures women's underwear.  The Company also manufactures outerwear, sports, and children's wear.  Wacoal has direct-sales network and overseas operations in Southeast Asia, the US, and Europe.

SEIREN CO., LTD. is a dyeing processor of filament fibers.  The Company also produces silk, synthetic fibers, and textile products used in household interior and apparel.  Seiren manufactures industrial materials including automobile interiors such as seats, air bags, and ceiling.

The Japan Wool Textile Co., Ltd. (Nikke Group) manufactures and sells woolen textiles for school uniforms, fashion and business attire, and a variety of other apparel and non-apparel goods. The Company also produces woven materials, thread and yarn for weaving and knitting, fire-resistant clothing for firefighters, and non-wool related products. Nikke operates in Japan.

Gunze Ltd manufactures underwear, socks, outerwear, and other textile. The Company also manufactures functional materials such as plastic films, electronic materials, engineering plastics, printing machinery.  Gunze operates real estate.

KURABO INDUSTRIES LTD. mainly manufactures and sells yarns and woven fabrics made from cotton and synthetic textiles.  The Company also produces polyurethane foams, synthetic woods, inorganic building materials, adhesives, and specialty plastics.  Kurabo also has operations in information system, electronic appliances, biochemical products. and real estate leasing.

ONWARD HOLDINGS CO., LTD. manufactures men's ready-made suits, women's, and children's wear.  The Company has its own brands, Onward and KUMIKYOKU. Onward also manufactures sports goods, books, stationery, cosmetics, art decoration.

TSI Holdings Company Ltd. manufactures men's and women's clothing, and retails women's clothing.  The Company produces and sells coats, dresses, suits, sweaters, shirts, skirts, and pants.

Prada S.p.A. is an Italian fashion company that designs, manufactures, promotes and sells high-end leather goods, ready-to-wear and footwear through various brands.

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. designs and markets branded contemporary casual, active, rugged, and lifestyle footwear for men, women, and children.  The Company sells its products to department stores and specialty retailers.  Skechers also sells its products internationally through distributors and directly to consumers through its own retail stores.

SRF Limited is a multi-business Indian multinational engaging in the manufacture of chemical based industrial intermediates. The Company has a business portfolio that encompasses technical textiles, chemicals, packaging films and engineering plastics.

Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes men's, women's and children's apparel, accessories, fragrances, and home furnishings. The Company's products are sold under a wide range of brands. Ralph Lauren's operations include wholesale, retail, and licensing.

Crocs, Inc. designs and manufactures shoes.  The Company produces soft, lightweight, non-marking, slip- and odor-resistant shoes made of closed-cell resin material.  Crocs manufactures men's, women's, and children's shoes and markets them to retail chains.

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd manufactures and processes textiles.  The Company produces, dyes, finishes, prints, embroiders, cuts, and sews knitwear.

Tapestry, Inc. designs and markets clothes and accessories. The Company offers handbags, leather goods, footwear, fragrance, jewelry, outer wear, ready-to-wear, scarves, sunwear, travel accessories, and watches. Tapestry serves customers in the United States.

VF Corporation is an international apparel company. The Company owns a broad portfolio of brands in the jeanswear, outerwear, packs, footwear, sportswear and occupational apparel categories. VF Corp's products are marketed to consumers shopping in specialty stores, upscale and traditional department stores, national chains and mass merchants.

Brunello Cucinelli SpA is a luxury fashion company, known for its cashmere products as well as exclusive brands.  The Company designs, manufactures, and distributes clothing and accessories globally for men and women.

Moncler S.p.A. is a brand with a winter heritage. Known for its outerwear, Moncler today designs and produces clothing and accessories for women, men and children, directly distributed through Moncler boutiques, its online store, department stores and multibrand stores.

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Descente Puts on Some Pace

Japanese outdoor brands are on a roll. Descente, now part of the Itochu empire, is rebuilding its brand at home and overseas, with significant...

Michael Causton

Asics (7936) | It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

We were too early to turn bearish on Asics. Q4 numbers were good. However, we note that rising inventories are a risk and we see limited upside...

Mark Chadwick

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We highlight the stocks in our Universe that have had a good or bad week. Japanese stocks paused this week after a strong performance a week ago.

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Asics (7936) | Nike Air Pockets

Following the weak quarter from NIKE and the poor outlook, we remain Bearish on ASICS. We see potential for a disappointing quarter in China and a...

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Strong Performance Meets Reasonable Valuation

After the stock has gained 40% from the recent low, we are taking profits. Q2 earnings were good, but assisted by the weak yen.

Mark Chadwick

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