Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We visited some paint dealers representing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akzo-nobel-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17499:1" rel="noopener">Akzo Nobel India (AKZO IN)</a>  to understand the current competitive intensity in the industry.</li>
<li>While three months is too short of a time frame to observe a significant change in industry structure, current signals seem to favor the incumbent. </li>
<li>Opus may influence dealers and painters, but what if consumers simply prefer APNT?</li>
</ul>


We visited some paint dealers representing Asian Paints (APNT IN) and Akzo Nobel India (AKZO IN)  to understand the current competitive intensity in the industry.
While three months is too short of a time frame to observe a significant change in industry structure, current signals seem to favor the incumbent. 
Opus may influence dealers and painters, but what if consumers simply prefer APNT?


India Channel Insight | Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Mindshare Master

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Outlook: We remain positive on the company’s long-term prospects, supported by the following factors: 1) The management’s guidance for continued double-digit volume growth in FY24, buoyed by the long festive season and rural recovery;</li><li>2) Decline in raw material prices; 3) The company’s recent announcement of (a) A vinyl acetate ethylene emulsion (VAE) and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) plant, (b) Plans of a white cement plant through a joint venture in Fujairah, UAE, to backward-integrate key raw materials, 4) Expansion of manufacturing footprint by more than 30-40%, and d) Launch of differentiated next-generation emulsions and waterproofing products based on nanotechnology.</li><li>These are steps in the right direction to achieve the next phase of growth and secure the company’s market share in the long term. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Outlook: We remain positive on the company’s long-term prospects, supported by the following factors: 1) The management’s guidance for continued double-digit volume growth in FY24, buoyed by the long festive season and rural recovery;2) Decline in raw material prices; 3) The company’s recent announcement of (a) A vinyl acetate ethylene emulsion (VAE) and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) plant, (b) Plans of a white cement plant through a joint venture in Fujairah, UAE, to backward-integrate key raw materials, 4) Expansion of manufacturing footprint by more than 30-40%, and d) Launch of differentiated next-generation emulsions and waterproofing products based on nanotechnology.These are steps in the right direction to achieve the next phase of growth and secure the company’s market share in the long term. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints - Competitive Intensity to Define Future Course; Maintain HOLD

<ul>
<li>There is a lot of excitement and uncertainty about the paint sector especially Asian Paints' leadership in the broader market and among analysts.</li>
<li>We interact with a couple of paint dealers across Delhi and Dimapur to gauge the sentiment on the ground.</li>
<li>While there is no denying that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grasim-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:290:1" rel="noopener">Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)</a> poses a credible threat it might be too early to write off the market leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There is a lot of excitement and uncertainty about the paint sector especially Asian Paints' leadership in the broader market and among analysts.
We interact with a couple of paint dealers across Delhi and Dimapur to gauge the sentiment on the ground.
While there is no denying that Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) poses a credible threat it might be too early to write off the market leader Asian Paints (APNT IN). 


<ul><li>Asian Paints’ Q3FY24 results were ahead of our estimates on the profitability front.</li><li>Its consolidated sales grew by 5.5% YoY to Rs 9,103 Cr (Volume grew 12% YoY) owing to the shift in the festive season.</li><li>Gross/EBITDA margins improved by 504/393bps YoY to 43.6%/22.6%, driven by deflation in key raw material prices (-0.2% material deflation in Q3FY24) and better product mix. Adj. PAT increased by 35% YoY to Rs 1,448 Cr.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints’ Q3FY24 results were ahead of our estimates on the profitability front.Its consolidated sales grew by 5.5% YoY to Rs 9,103 Cr (Volume grew 12% YoY) owing to the shift in the festive season.Gross/EBITDA margins improved by 504/393bps YoY to 43.6%/22.6%, driven by deflation in key raw material prices (-0.2% material deflation in Q3FY24) and better product mix. Adj. PAT increased by 35% YoY to Rs 1,448 Cr.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints - Competitive Intensity Will Define Future Course

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The rural economy plays a crucial role in driving India's growth, contributing just under half of the total GDP and providing livelihoods for about two-thirds of the population. </li>
<li>The trend which is emerging is rural economy growing faster than urban, hence we deep dive into the what and why of this trend</li>
<li>The urban slowdown has caused concern for India Inc's earning growth.</li>
</ul>


The rural economy plays a crucial role in driving India's growth, contributing just under half of the total GDP and providing livelihoods for about two-thirds of the population. 
The trend which is emerging is rural economy growing faster than urban, hence we deep dive into the what and why of this trend
The urban slowdown has caused concern for India Inc's earning growth.


Themes of India: A Deeper Look at Rural India's Economic Rise

India

Asian Paints Limited manufactures a wide range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black & synthetic resins. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products which are used in the manufacture of rubber tires.

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Asian Paints (APNT IN)

India Channel Insight | Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Mindshare Master

Exploring competitive intensity in the paint industry, current signals favor incumbent Asian Paints over Akzo Nobel India despite Opus influence...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asian Paints - Competitive Intensity to Define Future Course; Maintain HOLD

The management’s guidance for continued double-digit volume growth in FY24, buoyed by the long festive season and rural recovery

Axis Direct