Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket returned a solid return of 10% in July’23 against the 3% return posted by Nifty 50, beating the benchmark by a wide margin.</li><li>Over the last one year, the basket has gained 32%.</li><li>Moreover, we are happy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 202% since its inception (May’20), well above the 113% return that NIFTY 50 delivered over the same period. In light of this</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The Axis Top Picks Basket returned a solid return of 10% in July’23 against the 3% return posted by Nifty 50, beating the benchmark by a wide margin.Over the last one year, the basket has gained 32%.Moreover, we are happy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 202% since its inception (May’20), well above the 113% return that NIFTY 50 delivered over the same period. In light of thisContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket returned a solid return of 10% in July’23 against the 3% return posted by Nifty 50, beating the benchmark by a wide margin.</li><li>Over the last one year, the basket has gained 32%. Moreover, we are happy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 202% since its inception (May’20), well above the 113% return that NIFTY 50 delivered over the same period.</li><li>In light of this, we continue to believe in our thematic approach to Top Picks selection. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The Axis Top Picks Basket returned a solid return of 10% in July’23 against the 3% return posted by Nifty 50, beating the benchmark by a wide margin.Over the last one year, the basket has gained 32%. Moreover, we are happy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 202% since its inception (May’20), well above the 113% return that NIFTY 50 delivered over the same period.In light of this, we continue to believe in our thematic approach to Top Picks selection. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>DLF: DLF recorded decent presales of INR 20.4bn (+0/-76% YoY/QoQ), given there were no new launches during the quarter</li><li>It announced its re-entry into the MMR market with a slum rehabilitation project in Andheri</li><li>The total project size is expected to be around 3.5msf with DLF executing the first phase with a saleable area of 0.9msf and GDV of around INR 20bn+</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

DLF: DLF recorded decent presales of INR 20.4bn (+0/-76% YoY/QoQ), given there were no new launches during the quarterIt announced its re-entry into the MMR market with a slum rehabilitation project in AndheriThe total project size is expected to be around 3.5msf with DLF executing the first phase with a saleable area of 0.9msf and GDV of around INR 20bn+Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: DLF, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, PNB Housing Finance

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Ashok Leyland reported robust Q1FY24 numbers on a YoY basis (In Q4FY23, sales volumes were significantly higher due to pre-buying ahead of the OBD phase II norms.</li><li>Moreover, Q4 being a seasonally stronger quarter, the QoQ numbers are not strictly comparable). Revenue grew by 13% YoY (inline), but declined 30% QoQ on account of higher ASP (ASP was up 9%/2% YoY/QoQ due to price hikes taken during the year/quarter) along with higher sales volumes (up 4% YoY, down 31 % QoQ).</li><li>EBITDA jumped up by 156% YoY (but declined 36% QoQ), beating ours and consensus estimates by 16% and 3% respectively, largely led by higher GMs (up ~560/200 bps YoY/QoQ) at 26.3% as the benefit of the lower RM costs flows through QoQ. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Ashok Leyland reported robust Q1FY24 numbers on a YoY basis (In Q4FY23, sales volumes were significantly higher due to pre-buying ahead of the OBD phase II norms.Moreover, Q4 being a seasonally stronger quarter, the QoQ numbers are not strictly comparable). Revenue grew by 13% YoY (inline), but declined 30% QoQ on account of higher ASP (ASP was up 9%/2% YoY/QoQ due to price hikes taken during the year/quarter) along with higher sales volumes (up 4% YoY, down 31 % QoQ).EBITDA jumped up by 156% YoY (but declined 36% QoQ), beating ours and consensus estimates by 16% and 3% respectively, largely led by higher GMs (up ~560/200 bps YoY/QoQ) at 26.3% as the benefit of the lower RM costs flows through QoQ. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland - Gross Margin Drives Beat; Maintain BUY

India

Ashok Leyland Limited manufactures medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles, including buses, tractors, dumpsters, haulage trucks, fire engines, and defense sector vehicles. The Company also manufactures industrial & marine engines, ferrous castings and spare parts for automobiles. Ashok Leyland sells its products in India and abroad.

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Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Axis Top Picks - Aug 2023

The Axis Top Picks Basket returned a solid return of 10% in July’23 against the 3% return posted by Nifty 50, beating the benchmark by a wide margin.

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks - Aug 2023

The Axis Top Picks Basket returned a solid return of 10% in July’23 against the 3% return posted by Nifty 50, beating the benchmark by a wide margin.

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: DLF, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, PNB Housing Finance

The total project size is expected to be around 3.5msf with DLF executing the first phase with a saleable area of 0.9msf and GDV of around INR 20bn+

HDFC Securities

Ashok Leyland - Gross Margin Drives Beat; Maintain BUY

Ashok Leyland reported robust Q1FY24 numbers on a YoY basis (In Q4FY23, sales volumes were significantly higher due to pre-buying ahead of the OBD...

Axis Direct

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