IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)’s IFA opines that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. 
Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

HighTide Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Diseases with complex mechanisms like NASH are unlikely to be solved by drugs with a single target, but compared with THR-β and GLP-1s, our view on HTD1801’s prospects is negative.</li>
<li>HTD1801 faces high R&amp;D failure risk and challenges in obtaining the final approval for NASH indication. For T2DM indication, the current intense competitive landscape has dimmed its future commercialization prospects.</li>
<li>Several original shareholders have already cashed out in advance, indicating that they are not optimistic about the prospects of HighTide. The valuation premium space after IPO could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Diseases with complex mechanisms like NASH are unlikely to be solved by drugs with a single target, but compared with THR-β and GLP-1s, our view on HTD1801’s prospects is negative.
HTD1801 faces high R&amp;D failure risk and challenges in obtaining the final approval for NASH indication. For T2DM indication, the current intense competitive landscape has dimmed its future commercialization prospects.
Several original shareholders have already cashed out in advance, indicating that they are not optimistic about the prospects of HighTide. The valuation premium space after IPO could be lower-than-expected.


Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) - Some Shareholders Have Chosen to Quit in Advance

<ul>
<li>The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. </li>
<li>HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.</li>
<li>This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&amp;D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.</li>
</ul>


The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&amp;D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.


Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics - Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Legend Biotech Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)</a>, a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a>, is planning to raise up to US$250m in its follow-on offering.</li>
<li>The company last raised cash in Dec 2021 in a similar sized deal, which ended up doing very well after a sharp share price correction.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US), a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), is planning to raise up to US$250m in its follow-on offering.
The company last raised cash in Dec 2021 in a similar sized deal, which ended up doing very well after a sharp share price correction.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.


Legend Biotech Follow-On - A Little Opportunistic. Last Deal Did Well, After a Large Correction

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The MPP announced that it has signed agreements with 27 generic manufacturing companies including several Chinese companies for the manufacturing of molnupiravir and supply in 105 low- and-middle-income countries.</li>
<li>The profit margin would be limited because of its public benefit purpose. Therefore, it may not be able to bring huge incremental performance to the relevant domestic pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>The future risks and concerns on Merck's molnupiravir should also not be neglected. So, investors are advised to view this agreement with MPP rationally.</li>
</ul>


The MPP announced that it has signed agreements with 27 generic manufacturing companies including several Chinese companies for the manufacturing of molnupiravir and supply in 105 low- and-middle-income countries.
The profit margin would be limited because of its public benefit purpose. Therefore, it may not be able to bring huge incremental performance to the relevant domestic pharmaceutical companies.
The future risks and concerns on Merck's molnupiravir should also not be neglected. So, investors are advised to view this agreement with MPP rationally.


Would the Cheap Versions of Oral COVID-19 Antiviral Bring New Opportunities for Chinese Companies?

China

Ascletis Pharma Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company develops and discovers anti-viral drugs to address unmet medical needs in anti-viral, cancer, and fatty liver disease. Ascletis Pharma offers its services worldwide.

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Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Key shareholders will be supportive, and this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 15 February payment was 2.9%...

Arun George

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) - Some Shareholders Have Chosen to Quit in Advance

Due to cash shortages and uncertainty in R&D/commercialization, HighTide faces big risks. Many original shareholders cashed out in advance,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics - Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

Intercept's failure to obtain FDA approval for NASH drug may cast shadow on HighTide's core product outlook.HighTide's valuation performance is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Legend Biotech Follow-On - A Little Opportunistic. Last Deal Did Well, After a Large Correction

Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US), a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), is planning to raise up to US$250m in...

Sumeet Singh

Would the Cheap Versions of Oral COVID-19 Antiviral Bring New Opportunities for Chinese Companies?

Some Chinese companies are allowed to make cheap versions of Merck’s molnupiravir based on the MPP agreement.We analyzed the impact and outlook,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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