Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A year ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>'s new MTMP was to get from ¥35bn profit in FY22 to ¥70bn in FY24 including ¥55bn of organic profit, ¥15bn of synergies.</li>
<li>On Friday, SBI Shinsei announced FY22 would be ¥42bn instead of ¥35bn, despite higher interest rates. More aggressive lending and gains in subs were credited. </li>
<li>The MTMP calls for ¥70bn Profit in Mar-25 - ¥341 EPS so Friday's close x 7.1x. The big picture takeout scenario remains intact and Real World Float is still small. </li>
</ul>


A year ago, SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)'s new MTMP was to get from ¥35bn profit in FY22 to ¥70bn in FY24 including ¥55bn of organic profit, ¥15bn of synergies.
On Friday, SBI Shinsei announced FY22 would be ¥42bn instead of ¥35bn, despite higher interest rates. More aggressive lending and gains in subs were credited. 
The MTMP calls for ¥70bn Profit in Mar-25 - ¥341 EPS so Friday's close x 7.1x. The big picture takeout scenario remains intact and Real World Float is still small. 


2023 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Revises Up Profit Forecast - Now Ahead of Plan

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> was my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">High Conviction reco</a> in late 2020 for 2021 at ~¥1200/share. It was my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2022-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">High Conviction reco</a> in late 2021 for 2022 at ¥1900/share.  </li>
<li>I did not get around to writing it in late December 2022, but on the first day of trading I offer Shinsei as a 2023 high conviction recommendation. </li>
<li>What's new? Not a lot, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shinsei-bank-8303-jp-reading-between-the-lines" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reading Between The Lines</a> is still top drawer stuff. </li>
</ul>



SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was my High Conviction reco in late 2020 for 2021 at ~¥1200/share. It was my High Conviction reco in late 2021 for 2022 at ¥1900/share.  
I did not get around to writing it in late December 2022, but on the first day of trading I offer Shinsei as a 2023 high conviction recommendation. 
What's new? Not a lot, but Reading Between The Lines is still top drawer stuff. 


2023 High Conviction - SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Still Reading Between the Lines

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For the month of November, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~52%, and a year-to-date average of 41%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~52%, and a year-to-date average of 41%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1" rel="noopener">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> is under Tender Offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. </li>
<li>This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) is under Tender Offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). 
The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. 
This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.


Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. </li>
<li>It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. </li>
<li>Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. 
It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. 
Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

Japan

ARUHI Corporation offers finance services. The Company provides mortgage lending, stock acquisition, and other services. ARUHI also operates bank agency, insurance agency, and other businesses.

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Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)

2023 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Revises Up Profit Forecast - Now Ahead of Plan

SBI Shinsei (8303) upwardly revised its FY2022 forecast earnings by 20%. Mooooar profit. Some risk-taking. Some writebacks. Some will carry over....

Travis Lundy

2023 High Conviction - SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Still Reading Between the Lines

Shinsei is once again, a High Conviction Pick. Third Year in a Row. Less upside now than in late 2020, but I still regard it as a good reward/risk...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy

For the month of November, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

Aruhi (7198) today lowered full-year guidance (rev -11.6%, NetInc -28%) which means SBI has to extend its Tender Offer to 11 Nov. Knee-jerk...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

The October 2022 TOPIX FFW rebalance - ¥2.1trln a side - is to be executed on Friday. There are some large flows on event names, and elsewhere. The...

Travis Lundy

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