Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1" rel="noopener">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> is under Tender Offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. </li>
<li>This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) is under Tender Offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). 
The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. 
This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.


Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. </li>
<li>It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. </li>
<li>Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. 
It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. 
Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

<ul>
<li>As a follow-on to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-october-2022-rebal-big-names-with-big-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81835" rel="noopener">TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows</a> which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.</li>
<li>In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.</li>
<li>Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.</li>
</ul>


As a follow-on to TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.
In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.
Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

<ul>
<li>This is a hybrid insight on the upcoming TOPIX FFW Review to be announced 7 October, and the situation around <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Shinsei Bank is in "limbo" post control-acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> and an attempt to go over 50% should be in the works. When is not known.</li>
<li>The TOPIX FFW Review should see ¥2.0-2.2trln of one-way flow, and amongst that flow, a large sell on Shinsei to increase Real World Float by 60+% and 25d of ADV.</li>
</ul>


This is a hybrid insight on the upcoming TOPIX FFW Review to be announced 7 October, and the situation around Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). 
Shinsei Bank is in "limbo" post control-acquisition by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) and an attempt to go over 50% should be in the works. When is not known.
The TOPIX FFW Review should see ¥2.0-2.2trln of one-way flow, and amongst that flow, a large sell on Shinsei to increase Real World Float by 60+% and 25d of ADV.


The October TOPIX FFW Review and Shinsei Bank (8303)'s Future Float

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> announced it would launch a tender offer to buy 33.4-51% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1" rel="noopener">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> at ¥1,500/share - a 48.5% premium to the close. </li>
<li>ARUHI - Japan's largest "mortgage bank" - was listed in late 2017. Long ago, its predecessor was named SBI Mortgage. This is SBI buying back in. </li>
<li>Inside we look at valuations, shareholder structure, pro-ration. There are opportunities here.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) announced it would launch a tender offer to buy 33.4-51% of Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) at ¥1,500/share - a 48.5% premium to the close. 
ARUHI - Japan's largest "mortgage bank" - was listed in late 2017. Long ago, its predecessor was named SBI Mortgage. This is SBI buying back in. 
Inside we look at valuations, shareholder structure, pro-ration. There are opportunities here.


SBI (8473) Buys Back Into ARUHI (7198) In Partial Tender Offer

Japan

ARUHI Corporation offers finance services. The Company provides mortgage lending, stock acquisition, and other services. ARUHI also operates bank agency, insurance agency, and other businesses.

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Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)

Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

Aruhi (7198) today lowered full-year guidance (rev -11.6%, NetInc -28%) which means SBI has to extend its Tender Offer to 11 Nov. Knee-jerk...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

The October 2022 TOPIX FFW rebalance - ¥2.1trln a side - is to be executed on Friday. There are some large flows on event names, and elsewhere. The...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

This companion piece to the first October 2022 FFW Rebalance piece shows both large (>¥5bn) and small (¥1-5bn) intra-sector flows. Using the flows...

Travis Lundy

The October TOPIX FFW Review and Shinsei Bank (8303)'s Future Float

HYBRID INSIGHT: Shinsei and the October TOPIX FFW Review. Shinsei is now somewhat cheap to largercap peers, but will see 25 days of volume to sell...

Travis Lundy

SBI (8473) Buys Back Into ARUHI (7198) In Partial Tender Offer

SBI Holdings is buying back into ARUHI (7198), Japan's largest mortgage originator. ARUHI plans to grow. SBI wants to tag along so are offering to...

Travis Lundy

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