Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Softbank’s exposure to WeWork continues to haunt it beyond the close of 2QFY23, due to its credit support agreements</li>
<li>Aside from WeWork, we continue to see risks to valuations supporting the NAV; in particular, Arm Holdings and SVF2 which accounted for 45% of group equity value</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 45% discount to the stated NAV yet there is downside risk to Arm’s valuation along with questions over private company valuations at SVF1 and SVF2</li>
</ul>


Softbank’s exposure to WeWork continues to haunt it beyond the close of 2QFY23, due to its credit support agreements
Aside from WeWork, we continue to see risks to valuations supporting the NAV; in particular, Arm Holdings and SVF2 which accounted for 45% of group equity value
Softbank shares trade at a 45% discount to the stated NAV yet there is downside risk to Arm’s valuation along with questions over private company valuations at SVF1 and SVF2


Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

<ul>
<li>WeWork appears to be approaching bankruptcy; we expect SoftBank’s exposure to be at least USD1.4bn including credit lines</li>
<li>Arm Holdings post-IPO performance has been lacklustre, but we continue to believe that it remains dangerously over-valued against peers – and Arm provides 30% of the group’s equity value</li>
<li>We believe that JPY depreciation has supported SoftBank Group’s share price (given the high share of USD-denominated portfolio assets); in addition, we still see risks to current private company valuations</li>
</ul>


WeWork appears to be approaching bankruptcy; we expect SoftBank’s exposure to be at least USD1.4bn including credit lines
Arm Holdings post-IPO performance has been lacklustre, but we continue to believe that it remains dangerously over-valued against peers – and Arm provides 30% of the group’s equity value
We believe that JPY depreciation has supported SoftBank Group’s share price (given the high share of USD-denominated portfolio assets); in addition, we still see risks to current private company valuations


SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Results Preview, Key Topics

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Asicland completed an excellent IPO book building results. IPO price has been determined at 25,000 won which is 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>A total of 1,906 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building results. The IPO demand ratio was 490 to 1. Asicland IPO will start trading on 13 November. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Asicland is implied market cap of 434 billion won or target price of 40,571 won per share, which is 62% higher than the IPO price.</li>
</ul>


Asicland completed an excellent IPO book building results. IPO price has been determined at 25,000 won which is 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
A total of 1,906 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building results. The IPO demand ratio was 490 to 1. Asicland IPO will start trading on 13 November. 
Our base case valuation of Asicland is implied market cap of 434 billion won or target price of 40,571 won per share, which is 62% higher than the IPO price.


Asicland IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> provided some relief in the ECM space, even as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> didn't do much.</li>
<li>Given the earnings seasons, there weren't any placement during the week. We did look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a>'s upcoming placement lockup expiry. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) provided some relief in the ECM space, even as J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) didn't do much.
Given the earnings seasons, there weren't any placement during the week. We did look at Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)'s upcoming placement lockup expiry. 


ECM Weekly (29th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Midea, Wuxi XDC, Cirrus, Cello World, Honasa, SIA

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> has trimmed its IPO price from JPY1,890 to JPY1,830-1,840 per share to raise up to US$727 million. The IPO price will be determined on 16 October.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113787" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114152" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114376" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Our base-case DCF valuation is JPY2,058 per share. Peers have modestly re-rated, and a lower IPO price range helps increase the IPO's attractiveness.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has trimmed its IPO price from JPY1,890 to JPY1,830-1,840 per share to raise up to US$727 million. The IPO price will be determined on 16 October.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case, Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case and Kokusai Electric IPO: Valuation Insights. 
Our base-case DCF valuation is JPY2,058 per share. Peers have modestly re-rated, and a lower IPO price range helps increase the IPO's attractiveness.


Kokusai Electric IPO: Lower Price Range Is Reasonable

United Kingdom

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

Softbank's exposure to WeWork is well chronicled, but other investments - namely Arm and SVF2's portfolio - pose risks to its asset value and...

Victor Galliano

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Results Preview, Key Topics

WeWork bankruptcy looms, SBG's exposure at $1.4bn. Arm Holdings overvalued, providing 30% of group's equity. JPY depreciation boosts SoftBank's...

Victor Galliano

Asicland IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Asicland's IPO price has been determined at 25,000 won which is 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. Asicland IPO will start...

Douglas Kim

ECM Weekly (29th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Midea, Wuxi XDC, Cirrus, Cello World, Honasa, SIA

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Kokusai Electric IPO: Lower Price Range Is Reasonable

Kokusai has priced its IPO at the top of its IPO price range of JPY1,830-1,840 per share to raise US$724.4 million. The international offering was...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

​Softbank's exposure to WeWork is well chronicled, but other investments - namely Arm and SVF2's portfolio - pose risks to its asset value and...

Victor Galliano

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Results Preview, Key Topics

​WeWork bankruptcy looms, SBG's exposure at $1.4bn. Arm Holdings overvalued, providing 30% of group's equity. JPY depreciation boosts SoftBank's...

Victor Galliano

Asicland IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Asicland's IPO price has been determined at 25,000 won which is 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. Asicland IPO will start...

Douglas Kim

ECM Weekly (29th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Midea, Wuxi XDC, Cirrus, Cello World, Honasa, SIA

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Kokusai Electric IPO: Lower Price Range Is Reasonable

Kokusai has priced its IPO at the top of its IPO price range of JPY1,830-1,840 per share to raise US$724.4 million. The international offering was...

Arun George

Softbank's exposure to WeWork is well chronicled, but other investments - namely Arm and SVF2's portfolio - pose risks to its asset value and...

WeWork bankruptcy looms, SBG's exposure at $1.4bn. Arm Holdings overvalued, providing 30% of group's equity. JPY depreciation boosts SoftBank's...